John Ray Massoud

2K posts

John Ray Massoud

John Ray Massoud

@JohnRayMassoud

I write about law and politics. Retweets are not endorsements, all opinions are my own, etc. Check out my Medium page: https://t.co/rjylyus0t7

Katılım Temmuz 2024
382 Takip Edilen56 Takipçiler
John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@Nocheckloser @quasistable @ItsRobbAllen The hypothetical says it’s a private choice. Way different problem if it isn’t and people can communicate, and more likely a majority picks blue because (1) cooperation is possible and (2) you only need 50% + 1 to vote the same way to guarantee universal survival.
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Robb Allen
Robb Allen@ItsRobbAllen·
New Trolley problem has arrived, only it's dumber. Pres Red - 100% chance of living. Blue - Non-zero chance of dying. It has nothing to do with empathy for others unless you're stuck on suicidal empathy, which is YOUR fault, not mine. There is ZERO logical reason for ANYONE to press blue. NONE.
vittorio@IterIntellectus

why would anyone even press blue?!?

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@vers_laLune How does the red option *guarantee* everyone’s lives? If even one person presses blue, someone dies (unless a majority pushes blue). “If everyone pushes red…” yeah, same is true if everyone — or even half of people — push blue. 100% of people can’t agree unicorns aren’t real.
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𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕝𝕒 𝕃𝕦𝕟𝕖
𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕝𝕒 𝕃𝕦𝕟𝕖@vers_laLune·
at the risk of opening myself up to this bullshit question again, I need to emphasize, that only the red option guarantees everyone lives, but your moral posturing is forcing you to kill yourself
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@BobMurphyEcon @Cthulhu_Cal @Tasnek You bear at least a portion of the responsibility. 10 people shoot and kill someone; autopsy concludes cumulative trauma caused death, 9 bullets would not have been fatal. Are they all innocent? Definitely not as a legal matter; doubtful as a moral one.
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Robert P. Murphy
Robert P. Murphy@BobMurphyEcon·
No, I'm saying, if I pick red, there is not a "severely high chance" (your phrase) that I caused a single person to die. It is only if the rest of earth were split exactly 50/50 excluding my vote, that my vote for red causes anybody else to die. In contrast, there is probably a decent chance that more than 50% have picked red, and in that scenario if I pick blue I cause an extra death.
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Robert P. Murphy
Robert P. Murphy@BobMurphyEcon·
Another element to this: it is extremely unlikely (I’m tempted to say 1 in 8 billion but it depends how you frame it) that your blue vote actually saves lives. Another reason we should all reasonably go Red.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@shitizcrazy @AriDavidPaul Let’s assume that’s 1% of people. So ~80 million. Nobody else would risk their own life — and take the risk others would be willing to do so as well — to save 80 million? People jump on grenades; immolate themselves to protest wars. Way bigger stakes and less risk here.
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Ari Paul ⛓️
Ari Paul ⛓️@AriDavidPaul·
As a game theory question, it’s boring and easy. As a political question, it’s fascinating and reveals a great deal about why democracies struggle. Superficially, blue looks like the collectivist, selfless, moral answer. And as you’d expect, plenty of people not only assumed that to be true, but moralized aggressively at those who understand that’s not factually true. Anyone who picks red is guaranteed to live, including if everyone does it. It’s objectively the better and more moral choice for most and to recommend to others. Blue is a kind of stochastic suicide button.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@RealNorthEndGuy @HistoryBoomer Yes, 100% red is not death. 100%. Not 99%. For Blue, 50% and up (inclusive? Not clear on that) is no death. That is rational to factor into the decision if you think at least some people will pick blue, even if you’re convinced they’re being irrational.
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North End Guy
North End Guy@RealNorthEndGuy·
@HistoryBoomer So many people seem to think that majority blue is the only no-death outcome, and it’s bizarre. 100% red is also a no-death outcome, so the choice becomes live or die, and I have no obligation to choose die just because my neighbor did.
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Carl
Carl@HistoryBoomer·
I think people are choosing "blue" because then they can feel noble, but in the real world, with their life on the line, they'd press red. I'd certainly press red! Just have the whole world press red, and nobody dies!
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@HistoryBoomer @Lormif1 If you press blue, you automatically bear no responsibility for killing anyone other than (possibly) yourself, and you might save other people who pressed blue. That may be a more important incentive to some people, especially if they think (reasonably) many others will push blue
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Carl
Carl@HistoryBoomer·
@Lormif1 If you press red, you automatically live. YOU LIVE, GUARANTEED. Why would you press blue?
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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@quasistable @ItsRobbAllen Also, there’s no age limit in the hypothetical. Do babies just sit there until a button gets pushed randomly? What about 90 year olds with cancer who just want to not be responsible for killing anyone before they go? That’s 1st order; 2nd order want to save those ppl. Etc.
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Alastair and 147 others
Alastair and 147 others@quasistable·
@ItsRobbAllen Lots of people (including most kids) aren’t super logical and will instinctively pick the thing that feels “nice”. The only way to save them is a Blue majority.
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Kyle Cheney
Kyle Cheney@kyledcheney·
JUST IN: Judge handling Trump $10b lawsuit against IRS says she’s not sure if the parties are actually adverse enough for the courts to be involved. She wants briefing by late May on whether the case should continue. s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2807…
Kyle Cheney tweet media
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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@waitbutwhy Unstated (though reasonable) assumption in many comments here is we aren’t all extremely/homicidally misanthropic. Or trolls, or chaos agents, etc. at least 10% of people push red for those kinds of reasons, so prospective blue pushers have to take that into account.
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Tim Urban
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy·
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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Ilya Somin
Ilya Somin@IlyaSomin·
This is my view, as well. The GOP broke the norm against mid-decade gerrymandering. But that against court-packing is still intact. Moreover, court-packing would destroy the valuable institution of judicial review which (among other things) helps constrain power-grabbing presidents like Trump (eg on tariffs, Alien Enemies Act, and birthright citizenship).
Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦@JessicaBRiedl

Sorry, I voted yes on VA redistricting, but I've always been a firm "no" on packing the court. Its easy to harshly question justices on the other side (we all do it), but this is a radical escalation that leads only to worse outcomes (retaliation, further illegitimacy concerns).

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@Babygravy9 Still insider trading — inside trades can go wrong when markets don’t react to information the way people think it will, just like the operation could have gone wrong, but it’s still an unfair advantage based on access to non-public info. Not saying singling him out is fair.
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RAW EGG NATIONALIST
RAW EGG NATIONALIST@Babygravy9·
Gonna be honest with you, I’m not entirely sure how this is wrong. It’s not as if the raid couldn’t have gone terribly wrong and Maduro remained in power. If the dude actually participated, he was betting on his own skill and courage.
BNO News@BNONews

BREAKING: Person who won more than $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal has been identified as a U.S. soldier who participated in the operation. The soldier has now been arrested, according to ABC News.

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
Example of what I mean — how we can we prosecute people like this with a straight face while (1) the same things go unpunished for the powerful and (2) we burn taxpayer dollars on BS prosecutions for the regime’s political opponents? x.com/9mmsmg/status/…
9mmSMG@9mmsmg

The man went on a raid, put his life in danger, was called a hero, and is now arrested. He didn't bet against himself and the country. He bet he'd win. Drop the charges, you assholes. Do you know how much insider trading goes on in the administration? It's common practice. He'd be fine if he was worth 100 million. It'd be fine if he were Lutnick. Release him and discipline him if you have to. Don't ruin the man's life.

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
This is part of what we mean when we say there’s a rule of law crisis in America. We are ruled by an absurdly corrupt regime that does this sort of stuff daily, but when someone not in Trump’s orbit does it, they’re punished. Undermines the legitimacy of law enforcement.
Bonchie@bonchieredstate

Yeah, that spec ops soldier shouldn’t have insider bet. But man is tough to see a veteran get the book thrown at him while DC politicians, appointees, and staffers do this stuff with impunity. Just doesn’t seem fair.

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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@dilanesper To be clear, if he’d stayed on the ballot, I still would’ve walked over broken glass blindfolded on a busy highway to vote for him over Trump. But hard to blame people for not feeling the same way, and for feeling the Dems made a mess of the whole situation.
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John Ray Massoud
John Ray Massoud@JohnRayMassoud·
@dilanesper It’s all very tragic. Unlike the current occupant of the White House, this is someone who did the job in good faith and put competent people in charge of things. But even watching this, it’s hard to imagine him doing the job for another four years.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
one thing that really pisses me off about this discourse is that people pretend that decrepit old people don't have good and bad moments, and that if an old person can be articulate for 20 minutes that proves they can do an 80 hour a week job.
Elizabeth@alluringmedia

JAKE TAPPER, YOU LIED ABOUT JOE BIDEN BEING SENILE TO MAKE A PROFIT FROM YOUR STUPID ASS BOOK. THIS WAS JOE SATURDAY WITH STAGE 4 PROSTATE CANCER. BIDEN WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS ONE OF THE BEST PRESIDENTS EVER.

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Keşfet

@Nocheckloser @quasistable @ItsRobbAllen @vers_laLune @BobMurphyEcon @Cthulhu_Cal @Tasnek @ZPostFacto