Rallies Arena@ralliesarena
WE ARE TRYING TO ANSWER THE QUESTION ... IS AI GOOD AT INVESTING
We gave a bunch of AI models including Claude, ChatGPT, and Grok $100K in the stock market to see if they could beat the S&P 500
Here is a deep dive into how it has been going so far:
During the time of our test which started in late November the S&P 500 is up 5.2% 🟢 currently at new all time highs
This is what the leaderboard currently looks like in the Rallies AI Stock Market Arena:
🥇 ChatGPT: +28.5%🟢
🥈 Claude: +16.1%🟢
🥉 Gemini: +11.3%🟢
4 Grok: +6.5%🟢
5 Deepseek: +0.3%🟢
6 Qwen: -35.2%🔴
- 4 out of the 6 AIs are beating the S&P 500 (2 by more than 10%)
- 2 out of the 6 AIs are underperforming the market
All 4 of the AI models from the United States 🇺🇸 are beating the stock market while the 2 from China 🇨🇳 are not
Before we get too deep into it
If you want to see everything all of the AIs own and & every move they make it is all available on the Arena tab of the Rallies website & app (See the post commented below this for the link)
This is what all of the AIs currently own
- ChatGPT:
$54.6K of Credo $CRDO (+37% 🟢 on the position)
$35.9K of Google $GOOGL (+19%🟢)
$27.5K of Nebius $NBIS (+37%🟢)
$9.8K of Amphenol $APH (+8%🟢)
$826 of cash
GPT is running a very concentrated portfolio with just 4 names and no cash
It has been a volatile time but right now ... ChatGPT is on top of the world
GPT went really hard into Credo stock back on March 6th and it has paid off
GPT was active buying on in late March adding Nebius on March 24th and Google on March 31st
Fun fact
ChatGPT still has not made a single sale, a very important part of the game. It will be very interesting to see how it handles that
- Claude:
$14.5K of Intuit $INTU (+7%🟢)
$13.5K of Nvidia $NVDA (+10%🟢)
$12.3K of Interactive Brokers $IBKR (+28%🟢)
$11.3K of Google $GOOGL (+13%🟢)
$8.6K of Mondelez $MDLZ (+7%🟢)
$8.5K of Kroger $KR (+2%🟢)
$8.1K of Emcor $EME (+31%🟢)
$7.3K of Adobe $ADBE (+5%🟢)
$6.3K of Visa $V (+4%🟢)
$5.5K of Enterprise Products $EPD (-2%🔴)
$5.5K of Accenture $ACN (+2%🟢)
$5.4K of CVS Health $CVS (-0.4%🔴)
$9.2K of Cash
Claude has been the steadiest model in this competition so far
It has been near the very top of the leaderboard for the entire competition
Claude has had 2 really big wins that it closed out and doesnt show up on here ... Claude made
- $3,319 on Marvell stock (Bought on Nov 25th sold half on Dec 8th then was out the rest by Apr 13th)
- $3,704 on Cheniere stock (Bought Dec 29th and then sold throughout March)
Claude made almost no moves in March but has gotten active again here in April
So far this month Claude added the Adobe and Accenture stakes and sold Marvell and IBKR
Claude is rotating?
- Gemini:
$20.2K of Nvidia $NVDA (+12%🟢)
$18.3K of NextEra Energy $NEE (+7%🟢)
$14.6K of $ASML (+9%🟢)
11.1K of United Rentals $URI (+8%🟢)
$11K of Vertex $VRTX (-8%🔴)
$10K of Northrop Grumman $NOC (-8%🔴)
$6.3K of ServiceNow $NOW (-1%🔴)
$4.7K of Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (-10%🔴)
$15.1K of Cash
Gemini has also been a constant at the top of the leaderboard
It's strategy feels similar to Claude in diversification, but it has a little more red
Gemini has had a couple big Ws that it has already closed out including:
- $4,138 on Exxon Mobil stock (Bought on Dec 18th sold half on Jan 26th and the other half on Mar 19th)
- $3,876 on Caterpillar stock (Bought on Dec 2nd and then sold on Feb 3rd)
- $1,977 on Palantir stock (Bought on Feb 17th and sold on Mar 10th)
Gemini was active buying in mid to late March but hasnt done any buying since. The only move Gemini has made so far in March was taking profits on ASML stock
- Grok:
$58.2K of Micron $MU (+35%🟢)
$25.4K of Salesforce $CRM (-15%🔴)
$18.8K of ServiceNow $NOW (-6%🔴)
Grok's portfolio is more similar to GPT's than Claude and Gemini
Grok is heavily concentrated in just 3 names and 2 themes
Memory and Software ... *so far* Memory has worked and Software has not
Grok does not have the same previous winners that Claude and Gemini have
Grok lost $2,147 of Qualcomm, $1,835 on Oracle, and $734 of First Solar
Grok so far is batting 1 for 6 BUT this is a lesson in position sizing
Despite having a 17% hit rate right now Grok is beating the market
Why?
Grok has been really right on its largest holding
- Deepseek:
$23,094 of Broadcom $AVGO (+17%🟢)
$12,447 of Exxon Mobil $XOM (+25%🟢)
$12,035 of Bristol-Myers $BMY (+22%🟢)
$9,284 of SLB $SLB (+16%🟢)
$8,878 of Northrop Grumman $NOC (-11%🔴)
$8,864 of Lockheed Martin $LMT (-11%🔴)
$5,265 of American Water Works $AWK (-5%🔴)
$5,138 of Boston Scientific $BSX (-1%🔴)
$4,273 of Marathon $MPC (-3%🔴)
$4,020 of Brookfield $BIP (+0.1%🟢)
$3,277 of CVS Health $CVS (+9%🟢)
$2,522 of Keurig Dr Pepper $KDP (+5%🟢)
$0 of Micron Technology $MU (+0.0%)
Is this a case of overdiversification from Deepseek?
Deepseek is up double digits on its 4 largest holdings right now but is still struggling to compete
Deepseek does have a previous win or 2 under its belt making $4K on Micron and $1.6K on Applied Materials
BUT
Deepseek has some HUGE loses ... Deepseek lost
- $5,145 on Snowflake (Bought in Dec sold on Mar 5th)
- $5,389 on MongoDB (Bought on Dec 2nd sold on Mar 3rd)
Deepseek is also one of the most active out of all of the AI models
Deepseek has mostly been buying in April so far
- Qwen:
$19,270 of Gilead $GILD (-2%🔴)
$8,468 of Microsoft $MSFT (+17%🟢)
$7,446 of JPMorgan $JPM (+7%🟢)
$6,828 of Coca-Cola $KO (-2%🔴)
$6,590 of Exxon $XOM (-9%🔴)
$6,545 of Merck $MRK (-2%🔴)
$6,401 of Duke Energy $DUK (-3%🔴)
$2,840 of Philip Morris $PM (-1%🔴)
$363.87 of Micron $MU (-1%🔴)
Qwen went all in on Datadog stock in late November and then sold the bottom in February ... pain
Qwen lost $35,390 on Datadog stock ... $35.4K!!!
This is Qwen trying to make a comeback and it isnt off to a great start
AND THAT'S A WRAP
What AI models should we make sure are added to the Rallies Arena?