Jon Crowell

@SarahLongwell25 I think at this point I may as well check out of US politics forever and emigrate to Colombia.

We’re not talking enough about President Candace Owens. Yes, president. That may sound absurd to us politicos. But in my focus groups, Owens keeps coming up as one of the non-politicians voters can imagine in the White House. (1/5)

@shakoistsLog @simonsarris Yeah, definitely

@JonCrowellOrg @simonsarris hmmm no

What are the odds a kind of corporate AI usage crash is coming about 6 months from now? Maybe goes like: 1. Definitive enough "spend > revenue increase" from letting all employees run wild with token usage 2. Picking up the pieces of nightmares created as (middling) employees used zillions of tokens 3. Lock down of who is allowed to use the tooling

@shakoistsLog @simonsarris I think the models plateaued about 18 months ago

@simonsarris i think it would if models plateaud. but i dont think they will.

@TheStalwart The upside of the fertility crisis is that we are going to need less oil with every passing day as more people die than are being born.

We're coming up upon 3 months since the start of the war, and Brent Crude is at $100

@TheStalwart Paul Warburg had the right analysis within a few days of the beginning of the Iran war: youtube.com/watch?v=2rgVaT…

@thinkingwest No, boys prefer fiction

We focus too much on fiction in school. We should also be reading Plutarch, Plato, Herodotus etc — these will broaden a young person’s perspective much more than another novel. They’ll also have greater appeal to boys, who tend to prefer non-fiction.

@mattyglesias All this analysis is great, but the bottom line is that Dems insulted the electorate by embracing the trans nonsense. Nothing else really matters.

A lot of people decided starting in Obama’s second term that this traditional formula — growth-oriented regulatory policy plus taxes and a welfare state — wasn’t exciting enough, but all the newer ideas are worse. slowboring.com/p/a-common-sen…

A much-needed “postmortem” from @jonathanchait on the Biden administration’s poorly timed decision to go all-in on the idea that antitrust regulators should care less about consumer prices. archive.ph/PAhVs

@SamoBurja @Realismusjihad That's because he is 95

@Realismusjihad I'd agree, but he is less prominent than 20 years ago.

It is notable how the Pope is the only religious authority in the world that wields intellectual authority even among secular people. No one secular cares what the Bishop of Canterbury or the Grand Ayatollah have to say.

@_CryMiaRiver I don't understand how he couldn't have seen your obvious criticism coming, so it makes me think he must just be operating in bad faith.

The logic here: Men are so dangerous that men presenting differently will be abused and assaulted the moment they enter a men’s bathroom. The solution? Let’s fling the doors of women’s spaces wide open to men!

@sailaunderscore Cars were not an oddity in the 1940s -- they weren't even an oddity in the 1920s.

A boomer who grew up rurally went from cars being an oddity to self-driving cars, from the Turing machine to the LLM, from the academic internet to computers the size of a watch. They still have ~10 years left.

@dilanesper I don't care about whether I'm a "feminist" or not -- I care about being in touch with reality.

People need to seriously start making actual arguments here. If you call everyone who disagrees with you a hater of women, you aren't a feminist. You're just an asshole on Twitter who likes to insult strangers.

The funny thing is I bet I have paid admission to or worked at more women's sports events than all my critics combined. There is so much just putrid reasoning here. The claim you can't be a fan of women's sports and support any sort of inclusion at any level is bereft of logic.

@dwarkesh_sp @jkcarlsmith I can assure you that consciousness exists and that AI will never possess it.

Lots of people have a very strong feeling that the concept of consciousness is absolutely central to ethics. But we barely understand how consciousness works at all - especially in the case of AI. @jkcarlsmith on the risks of building our ethics on a concept we might end up revising or rejecting:

@akarlin @Empty_America Who goes to Colombia?

@Empty_America You go to America to make money. You leave America to spend it, if you're smart. Of these, poors go to Thailand, Vietnam, Paraguay. Rich go to S. France, Italy, Japan. Really rich? Switzerland. In between? Portugal.

The end game for objective quality of life is having a fairly high passive income somewhere like Italy or the S. of France. So in effect a "passive dollar" is worth perhaps 5x more than a "wage dollar." 30K passive in Italy > 150K wage income in USA.

@elizaorlins What about the fact that affirming trans identities in kids increases the suicide risk for those children?

THIS IS FUCKING AWESOME.

@dilanesper What about the fact that affirming trans identities increases the suicide rate for the supposedly trans kids?

Regarding Tom Steyer's position on trans athletes: I think he's right on the merits. ELITE sports need to be sex segregated. But people make up reasons to claim that competitive fairness of youth sports is super-important and it isn't. Plus, there's enforcement problems.

@zmwang Are there really that many half-Indian and half-Chinese people?

More SF Magic. A couple came by to the SF Chindian meetup and their gift was homemade iced chai… yes chai (!) straight out of a thermos + side ice box. It was so good. Made even more fun by how much joy it brought them to serve it.

@NataliaAntonova please shorten these AI posts

Alright, story time. First of all, abstaining from sex is a deeply personal choice. Mocking it is cruel and stupid. ✨Having said that✨ I had a client who needed help with dating apps. Nice guy (yes he’s cool with me telling you his story now). Turns out he got divorced a year prior. His wife was furious at him for filing. When he filed, he hadn’t touched her in a year. This guy found religion after getting out of the military. He had church friends who were your typical alt religious bros, “You gotta marry a virgin! She’ll be loyal.” He bought into every trope: “Women with experience can’t bond with you normally.” “You’re a cuck if you marry a slut like that.” He got fixed up with a pretty woman from church. Early 20s, pious, pursuing a degree but lives with her parents and not on campus, THE VIRGIN HUNTER’S DREAM. They had a short courtship. She didn’t like him kissing her, but he figured she believed in purity until marriage. She didn’t like being alone with him, or sharing in his hobbies, but that’s because she was pure! She just didn’t want to be tempted if he took her on a nice hike! What a wonderful woman, right? They get married and he finds out that she hates him touching her. She just puts up with it. Freezes up when he tries to hug her, or kiss her neck, or anything. Sex and affection are a solemn duty. The only position is missionary. She screws her eyes shut the entire time. He tries to get her out of her shell, and she’s disgusted. One time, he tries to take her lingerie shopping. She cries in the car at how perverted he’s being. She isn’t here for his interests either. She’s closed off, like a beautiful shell. One time he tries to take her fishing. Even that is a disaster. If she’s not at church or visiting her parents, she wants to be at home. She’s happy there. She says if he loved her, he wouldn’t act like a porn-brained beast, nor would he try to change her. Why can’t he be happy with missionary duty sex? Why is he being so awful and gross? She says she wants children, but at this point he feels like a rapist if he so much as pats her arm affectionately. He considers suicide when she berates him. Finally he finds out about asexuality and anxiety disorders, puts two and two together, and files for divorce. Her family is furious, his church buddies are furious, and he has to cut ties with some people. She threatens suicide. Thankfully doesn’t go through with it. He gets out of the experience feeling like a monster and an idiot. Takes a year off to actually find himself, find better friends, and a church where he belongs. Moral of the story is this: Don’t expect someone who hates physical and emotional intimacy to become your lover and friend. The cult of purity is a great cover for neuroses. A woman who thinks sex is a “duty” is not going to be into it because you put a ring on her finger.

@farzyness I think Toyota is way ahead of Tesla on this -- I'm looking forward to being able to just sleep in my Toyota on a long drive.

There's an UNBELIEVABLE use case for regional trips in the US that will decimate air travel and buses. Fully autonomous Tesla Robovans outfitted as long-haul first-class "buses". These would run routes similar to Amtrak or Greyhounds, but with First-Class-like comfort, amenities, and space. The price per seat of these can be the same as a bus, but FAR more comfortable and FAR more luxurious. Can obviously optimize the interior for the best configuration but MAN. This would absolutely KILL.

@JonnyRoot_ Anyone is allowed to have any kind of private dinner party they want.

Half black/half Japanese tennis player Naomi Osaka held a dinner party exclusively for black tennis players before the French Open She defended the party by claiming there have been segregated white-only parties (Without proof, of course) This woman is insufferable.

@zmwang Are these people all half-Indian and half-Chinese, like Wasians are half-White and half-Asian?

SF Chindian Meetup & Potluck from the morning session (there were two groups!). My favorite topic during the meetup was love. We talked a lot about it. The challenges of intercultural relationships and the magic. In my experience, between our two cultures, love is expressed differently. One more directly, one more indirectly. Actions vs words. High context vs low context. There is no right or wrong, just the opportunity to understand intention. Someone brought freshly cut fruit - Asian Pears, it reminded me of my parents and I missed them.