Jon Cukierwar

777 posts

Jon Cukierwar

Jon Cukierwar

@JonCukierwar

Founder of Sohra Peak Capital Partners, where we invest in businesses with intelligence far surpassing my own. Disclaimer here: https://t.co/C1dK5tzAej

New York Katılım Eylül 2020
494 Takip Edilen16.1K Takipçiler
Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
1. No concern on concentration. Once a theater installs D-BOX seats they almost never remove them. Cinemark has a healthy balance sheet no risk of near-term bankruptcy. Rollout in U.S. I estimate has ~2 years before potential saturation. New chain wins expected by then. 2. The opposite. Screen wins have accelerated significantly since new CEO joined June 2025. Last quarter alone +86 new screens which was close to what old CEO did each year. New CEO & CCO are "meeting with everybody" in CEO's words (recent Microcapclub interview). I'm expecting theater chain win announcements in months ahead. 3. The opposite. Data is clear utilization for D-BOX and PLFs has been increasing as box office becomes more and more blockbuster heavy. D-BOX is also focusing foremost on U.S. theater chain wins (have almost none atm) where they are underpenetrated relative to other countries where they have a presence e.g. Canada, Germany. See thoughts in greater depth here: sohrapeakcapital.com/wp-content/upl… Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates including myself hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.
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Paris Analyst
Paris Analyst@ParisAnalyst·
@JonCukierwar @ragingbullcap Interested & going to look. Any concerns about: 1. Cinemark concentration or rollout pace? 2. Ability to land new large chains and/or legitimate TAM ceiling? 3. Price premium per seat or utilization degrading? (Perhaps as expanding into weaker markets or as novelty wears off?)
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Dylan Marrello
Dylan Marrello@ragingbullcap·
$DBO.TO Some thoughts on why I believe this is extremely silly below $.70/share. DBOX ended CY 2025 with $16m or ~$0.07/share in cash, very little of which is needed to run the business. That balance should be higher now, so you're paying less than $0.62/share today for the enterprise Using even TTM FCF of ~$12m, that's an 11x FCF multiple for a growing royalty biz. FCF is going way higher given 1) system growth and 2) a box office that is tracking significantly higher than 2025 already. On the box office piece of the equation, the market has picked up on this in other names in the sector (IMAX, CNK), but DBOX investors appear to be struggling to understand this. The are a variety of free places to track this (e.g. Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, updates from the operators). Q1 26 is already tracking slightly ahead of last year, which is a big deal because industry estimates have the rest of the year comping well ahead as there is an abundance of tentpole films being released from here until year-end. That starts with Project Hail Mary (next week) and Mario (April 1). "The Numbers" estimates $9.9B for the 2026 box office vs. $8.7B last year (~+14%). So at a minimum, TTM royalties of $13.7m should increase to $15.6m over the NTM (basically all margin). But that understates the likely result for a couple reasons. 1. Over-indexing. PLF's have been capturing share so will grow faster than the box office. Moreover, DBOX will benefit from the film slate this year, as the format favors family and action films (which will dominate in 26): Mario, Hoopers, Toy Story, Avengers, etc. Notably, as I flagged in a prior tweet, Avengers is expected to be the largest film this year and it does not have an IMAX window because Dune secured it, meaning DBOX should hugely overindex for this blockbuster. 2. System growth. Screens have grown by ~13% over LTM and given what we know (deferred revenue lift, proposed financing structures, system sale revenues last Q, commentary on backlog, etc.), I suspect there's at least another 10% growth from here through year-end. So we have box office expected to grow +14% + general over-indexing + the right content slate for the format + an average system count 10-20% higher than the comp period. That's likely good for $18m of royalties for the calendar year. Even haircutting 2025 System sale revenues by a little, that's >$55m of NTM revenue, which should translate to ~$15m of FCF. Assuming most of that piles up on the balance sheet, we exit with ~$.12/share of cash, implying $.57/share for the enterprise by year-end or 8x TTM FCF. DD yield for a high margin royalty biz with limited competition risk, leverage over all participants in the value chain (exhibitors and studios benefit hugely from PLFs), and vast remaining whitespace is silly. My personal view is that mgmt should initiate a capital return policy in the near-term, ideally buybacks but a dividend would also suffice. I get the flexibility of having cash, but pro forma cash of nearly $30m by year-end would clearly be overcapitalized even with the financing prospects, and the cash is a major drag on the type of ROE that makes these business models so attractive. I would be surprised if we don't see some movement on this front during the year. DYODD.
Dylan Marrello@ragingbullcap

@HYcorps DBOX is laughable here. Apparently people don’t realize they can track the box office in near real time.

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Maxwell House
Maxwell House@maxwellhouse99·
Added a bit more $DBO.TO here
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates including myself hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
"David Ellison reaffirmed his pledge to release 30 films theatrically once Paramount merges with Warner Bros. Discovery." Not to be missed, Paramount beat Netflix to acquire Warner Bros in a huge win for the movie theater industry. This flips intermediate-term from risk of a reduced theatrical slate and theatrical window to a potentially increased theatrical slate and a maintained theatrical window. Ellison's Warner Bros + Paramount releasing 30 films/yr would represent a ~50% increase from the studios' combined output of 19 films in 2025. Given the studios combined for 27% box office market share in 2025, anything directionally towards 30 films/yr should be a material positive for box office likely by 2027-2028. By extension a win for movie theaters and PLFs including D-BOX $DBO.TO.
Variety@Variety

Paramount Says It Will Release 15 Warner Bros. Movies a Year in Theaters, Reaffirms 45-Day Theatrical Window variety.com/2026/film/news…

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Jon Cukierwar retweetledi
The Wall Street Journal
Breaking: Paramount has won the bidding war for Warner Discovery after Netflix said it wouldn't match Paramount’s revised offer on.wsj.com/4kUCWAG
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
$DBO.TO Chief Commercial Officer Scott Sherr filed more open market insider purchases today for 36,799 shares, in light of BoD member Dan Marks's share sales (thoughts in quote tweet). As we know, Scott was hired in large part to accelerate new screen expansion, and per CEO Naveen during last week's public presentation, "with me coming on board, Scott as a chief commercial officer, we are talking to everybody." Given this implication that Scott is participating directly in discussions with prospective theater chain clients and is buying shares, I view this purchase as notably positive.
Jon Cukierwar tweet media
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar

Thanks @DrJebaim for sharing this. $DBO.TO BoD member Dan Marks has sold D-BOX shares -- at $0.63/sh in Nov, $0.90s in Dec, $0.70s last week, and I wouldn't be surprised if continuing this week. While certainly not to be dismissed, I think this is an action to be considered on balance with other related facts: - Marks's average cost basis is likely between $0.10-0.20/sh. - Marks is an investment manager, and D-BOX is still likely a highly concentrated portion of his portfolio. - CEO, CTO, CCO, and 2 other BoD members have all made insider purchases over the past 6 months, many at or above current prices. We don't know exactly why Marks is selling, but given CEO Naveen's positive comments last week in his MicroCapClub interview (youtube.com/watch?v=rRQW7E…), I'd be surprised if Marks's sales were due to some negative surprise that the BoD is privvy to - and that other BoD members and C-suite executives seem to be buying in to. A few quotes from Naveen's presentation: - "Scott as a Chief Commercial Officer, we are talking to everybody" discussing theater chains. - “There are absolute signals that we have more room to grow [with Cinemark U.S.]” - "there was a focus on growing product sales across broad markets. We are refocusing. They are long lead periods for sales. So I'll leave it at that." Implying to me the potential for future theater chain wins. - "We do see an opportunity for financing and we want to make sure that we are exploring as a priority something that will continue to grow our profitability and compound that royalty revenue." D-BOX mentioning for the first time financing as a tool to accelerate screen count growth. Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates including myself hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.

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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Thanks @DrJebaim for sharing this. $DBO.TO BoD member Dan Marks has sold D-BOX shares -- at $0.63/sh in Nov, $0.90s in Dec, $0.70s last week, and I wouldn't be surprised if continuing this week. While certainly not to be dismissed, I think this is an action to be considered on balance with other related facts: - Marks's average cost basis is likely between $0.10-0.20/sh. - Marks is an investment manager, and D-BOX is still likely a highly concentrated portion of his portfolio. - CEO, CTO, CCO, and 2 other BoD members have all made insider purchases over the past 6 months, many at or above current prices. We don't know exactly why Marks is selling, but given CEO Naveen's positive comments last week in his MicroCapClub interview (youtube.com/watch?v=rRQW7E…), I'd be surprised if Marks's sales were due to some negative surprise that the BoD is privvy to - and that other BoD members and C-suite executives seem to be buying in to. A few quotes from Naveen's presentation: - "Scott as a Chief Commercial Officer, we are talking to everybody" discussing theater chains. - “There are absolute signals that we have more room to grow [with Cinemark U.S.]” - "there was a focus on growing product sales across broad markets. We are refocusing. They are long lead periods for sales. So I'll leave it at that." Implying to me the potential for future theater chain wins. - "We do see an opportunity for financing and we want to make sure that we are exploring as a priority something that will continue to grow our profitability and compound that royalty revenue." D-BOX mentioning for the first time financing as a tool to accelerate screen count growth. Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates including myself hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.
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Dylan Marrello
Dylan Marrello@ragingbullcap·
@satsfilip @DrJebaim My take as well. He could be getting redemptions, who knows. Concentrated position and sitting on multiples of his cost basis, so I don't think it's very informative. @JonCukierwar
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Jebaim
Jebaim@DrJebaim·
$DBO.TO sharing for visibility.
Jebaim tweet media
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates including myself hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Evaluating box office revenues QoQ -- and hence royalties -- at the seasonal trough is no different than evaluating Home Depot during winter months. Irrational. Even if D-BOX had 10,000 screens tomorrow, they would still see rising QoQ royalties in Q2 & Q3 and declining QoQ royalties in Q4 & Q1. And in case clarification is helpful for anyone, the reason box office revenues are seasonal is because studios reserve their best blockbuster films for peak audience attendance windows which are summer and year-end holidays. For that reason, Q2 and Q3 are often the strongest box office -- and hence royalties -- quarters, followed by Q4, then Q1. $DBO.TO
Jon Cukierwar tweet media
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Common Sense Investing
Common Sense Investing@onecentinvest·
$DBO.TO D-Box earnings are out... what do you think?
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Another quarter of strong results for D-BOX Technologies $DBO.TO +61% EBIT YoY +75% EPS YoY (Adj. for DTA tax benefit) +86(!) new screens in FY26 Q3 alone D-BOX added 158 new screens YTD through FY26 Q3 which we view as the most powerful driver of future profits. Most notably, deferred revenues QoQ increased "over $3 million due to advanced deposits received in December for theatrical orders to be delivered and installed over the coming months." YTD theatrical system sales per screen of ~$100k we think implies a minimum 30 screens to be added in Q4 with zero credit given to new orders over Jan-Mar. Furthermore, $8.1mm Q3 inventories > $7.1mm Q2 inventories, where Q2 preceded an 86 new-screen quarter. FY26 should see most screens added in one year in D-BOX's history. Royalty revenues -3% YoY were slightly underwhelming but driven by weaker than expected N.A. box office -7% YoY and est. N.A. theater attendance -10% YoY for calendar quarter Q4 2025. As a reminder, box office is seasonal, with calendar quarters Q2 and Q3 usually performing strongest. We fully expect D-BOX seats to continue to perform well during these blockbuster-heavy box office quarters. 2026 N.A. box office per The Numbers and Gower Street is expected to grow +14% YoY to $9.9Bn. Sales & marketing expense tracked a bit higher than we expected, though likely associated with new hires tied to theatrical screen growth efforts. Continued R&D under new management and BoD we perceive as aligned with CEO Naveen Prasad's priority of unlocking new royalty streams. We continue to expect D-BOX to grow its profits at high rates for the foreseeable future.
Jon Cukierwar tweet media
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
@maxwellhouse99 Based on prior releases seems likely we will see earnings either today or tomorrow AH
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Maxwell House
Maxwell House@maxwellhouse99·
Added a bit more $DBO.TO $DBOXF today before the earnings
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.
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Jon Cukierwar
Jon Cukierwar@JonCukierwar·
Duratec $DUR Western Australia naval bases highlighted by WSJ as key to U.S. in potential conflict with China over Taiwan. Duratec is a leading asset remediator for these naval bases where billions of dollars of work could be requested over the coming years: "For the U.S., the arrangement offers a crucial advantage for a potential conflict with China. The U.S. bases submarines at Guam, but China could hit the U.S. territory with a missile barrage early, possibly knocking out the island’s military facilities. Doing submarine maintenance in Western Australia also gives the U.S. another option for repairs ... 'If you were in some kind of conflict, and your ships are getting damaged, you’re going to want to return to the fight quickly,' said Rear Adm. Lincoln Reifsteck, who commands an American submarine group, during a recent visit to the base. 'So having this geography to enhance what you have in Guam, to enhance what you have in Pearl Harbor…it’s going to make the U.S. Navy able to get back to it faster.'" wsj.com/world/the-u-s-…
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