Jon Surf

@Mylovanov Looks like it has diverted to Trinidad. This is the tanker Sea Horse carrying diesel. There is apparently another tanker carrying crude oil, on its way. reuters.com/business/energ…

Russia is moving to break a U.S. oil blockade by sending a state-owned tanker toward Cuba — WP. Washington has already warned that Cuba cannot receive Russian oil. If the tanker docks, it becomes a direct test of whether the U.S. can enforce its pressure. 1/

@fukkinonyamama @tommysantos14 @TaraServatius JCPOA was an international agreement regarding Iran‘s nuclear programme with monitoring and inspections to ensure Iran did not get a nuclear bomb. It had absolutely nothing to do with legitimising Hamas & Hezbollah or giving them impunity to commit crimes. Complete nonsense.

@tommysantos14 @TaraServatius The deal effectively legitimized Hamas and Hezbollah and gave them impunity to commit crimes even in Venezuela. politico.com/interactives/2…

No. I covered the JCPOA at the time. It REMOVED the requirement that Iran never produce missiles. That's why Rubio opposed it at the time, giving a speech in 2015 about how the JCPOA would allow Iran to get missiles they weren't allowed to get before. Then Obama then unfroze $100 billion and sent it to Iran. They used for the nuke & missile creation and to stay in power despite the people's attempts to overthrow them. Obama even sent them pallets of cash ($1.7 billion) in the middle of the night. Biden transferred another $100 billion that kept Iran's brutal mullahs in power and paid for their nuke/missile programs. Trump is cleaning up Obama and Biden's disastrous mess that put 1/3 of the world in terrible danger.

@christophersla1 @BohuslavskaKate @CathMurphyTD I would have thought an Irishman, revering the IRA would have empathy for Ukraine, invaded by Russia. But no, whilst enjoying the spring sunshine in Benidorm you are criticising, with no justification, “I want ammo not a ride” Zelensky. Do you support Russia/Putin?

@BohuslavskaKate @CathMurphyTD Zelensky is a crook and a gangster who is lining his own pocket and dosen't want this conflict to end.

BROWDER: Putin has recently decided to cut off the internet in Moscow because he thinks that’s how Khamenei was located, targeted, and killed. He fears that Ukrainians or others could use it to track him down and kill him. He rarely visits Kremlin. Putin is a scared little man.

@ukraine_map US total aid of all types was $51 billion. Lots of creative accounting, old weapons sent costed at price of new which went to US military. $20 billion sent to Poland included in Ukraine assistance. Read linked article on attached for more info. x.com/JonSurf6/statu…

Fact Check: The US 🇺🇸 never spent $188 billion on Ukraine 🇺🇦 $33.8 billion = Drawdown Authority $31.3 billion = USAI (Weapons Purchases) $2.4 billion = Foreign Military Financing $47.3 billion = Economic Aid $3.8 billion = Humanitarian Aid Overall $118.6 billion was pledged

@VolodyaTretyak Ukraine has to keep going to these meetings, taking them seriously, otherwise Trump will drop all help to Ukraine, possibly support Russia. I think US still supplies Ukraine with intelligence & sells them some weapons.

Any expectations?

@_Tacticute @kieks827 @wartranslated I looked it up, explosive charge blows rotors off then ejectors operate, ingenious.

@JonSurf6 @kieks827 @wartranslated Ka 52 is actually one of the few helicopters that has an eject

Ukrainian drone operators’ first reactions as the Ka-52 goes down right after the hit.

@randymot4 Europe sending warships to war in the gulf for an indeterminate time, costs money, which is better going to Ukraine. Things can escalate. Warships are needed to monitor Russian warships/submarines, defend Greenland. Ukraine is priority. Involvement in Iraq, political distraction.

I have been as big a supporter of Ukraine as there is...but can you explain what role naval vessels have in Ukraine fighting the Russian army?

@wartranslated I am sure that when Putin invaded Ukraine he never imagined in his widest dreams that over four years later, Ukraine would be using their own manufactured drones to shoot down his helicopters.

@rshereme US total aid of all types was $51 billion. There was creative accounting, old weapons sent costed at price of new which went to US military. $20 billion sent to Poland included in Ukraine assistance. Read linked article on attached for more info. x.com/JonSurf6/statu…

I am so fed up with this administration — it consists of chronic liars like Trump and Hegseth. Trump:“We have a lot of ammunition, but it was depleted by giving so much to Ukraine. Biden gave $350 billion worth of cash and military equipment to Ukraine, and he didn’t rebuild anything. Fortunately, we still have a lot.” Hegseth: “We’re still dealing with the environment Joe Biden created — depleting our stockpiles by sending them to Ukraine instead of supporting our own military. Every challenge we face traces back to, ‘Well, we sent it to Ukraine.’” No, Biden did not give Ukraine $350 billion. That’s a plain lie that Trump keeps repeating. The total approved aid has not exceeded $180 billion, and the amount actually delivered is even lower. Anyone with internet access can verify this. And no, Ukraine did not deplete U.S. stockpiles. Much of the aid consisted of older systems and munitions — artillery shells, HIMARS rockets, Javelins — not the high-end interceptors and cruise missiles now in heavy shortage due to the war in Iran.

@jurgen_nauditt Trump is now saying that US will pull out, leaving it to users of gulf oil to ensure supply. Over 80% of oil & LNG exiting the Persian Gulf flows to Asian markets, China, India, Japan & South Korea mainly. Possibly the best outcome from the current disaster Trump has created.

TACO We are very close to achieving our objectives and are considering scaling back our major military efforts in the Middle East with regard to Iran – Trump. The Strait of Hormuz should, if necessary, be protected and controlled by other countries that use it – the United States does not. If asked, we will assist these countries in their efforts regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but this should not be necessary once the threat from Iran is eliminated.

@KT17555Q @RealXavier011 Trump a “master-class leader in the world”! So that is what the leadership of this shipwreck of an administration is called.

She is dealing with a master-class leader in the world. Trump is not a traditional president. He is the most powerful, unconventional, unique leader in the world. All of the world leaders need to buckle up and sit tight and be careful who you’re dealing with. This is not a game or joke. We are talking about global and national security.

Just look at her 🥹🥹🥹🥹🥹❤️🥺

@Mylovanov Surprising thing is 37% by Rubaka drone. I have not heard of these. Delta wing, propellor at front. Normal range 250km, warhead 2-5 kg. Seems they are used for targets such as radar, which makes sense, small warhead sufficient. Cost $15k en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tec….

Ukrainian forces struck 365+ Russian targets with midrange strike drones in one year. Air defense hit most — 172 times. Fire Point's FP-2 drone accounted for 40% of confirmed hits, Rubaka 37% — OSINT analyst Garbuz, Oboronka. 1/

@Mylovanov I think this post is misleading. There were 365 strikes analysed. So it is ones where there is a video and it has been released by the military. oboronka.mezha.ua/en/yak-pracyuy…

@Xenta777 Here is a link to the article. If the reporter accurately reported what was said, this is appalling. ms.now/news/trump-int…

Trump once again made a controversial statement about Zelensky and praised putin The words of the American leader were relayed by the host of The 11th Hour on MSNBC, who interviewed him “I asked about help and support from Ukraine, and he said they have done nothing. Everything Zelensky has said about what Ukraine has done to help us, he does only for political and PR purposes. They have done nothing,” the journalist quoted Trump Trump also allegedly stated that it is harder to reach an agreement with Zelensky than with putin. He also said that putin has shown that he is not afraid of Europe now “I would directly say that he expressed more trust in putin than in any of our European allies,” she added I have a question: why the hell do we need an “ally” like this? And another question: why does this article make me feel so sick? And the main question: what exactly so significant has Trump already agreed on with putin???

@FinskiX @JayinKyiv Get all $350 billion dollars of it back on a bad day, $500 billion dollars on a good day. Probably be a trillion dollars soon.

@JonSurf6 @JayinKyiv ..and Trump demanded access to Ukraine's natural resources and economy in return, so that the United States could 'get its money back'... heroic, right?

Hegseth announces that Ukraine is cut off. Serving Putin is the core focus of the Trump administration.

@TheWhiteWitchTM @Gerashchenko_en @grok I think that perhaps this is what you were thinking of. odessa-journal.com/ukraine-wins-a…

@JonSurf6 @Gerashchenko_en @grok I am to tired to look up the details and stuff and maybe I am wrong... But this is what my late nite mind on herbs recalls. There was a drone simulation where Ukraine wiped the floor with NATO in all 5 runs or so? If I am wrong tell me!

I’m not buying the explanation that Russia’s internet lockdown is just an "anti-drone measure." Yes, there is an anti-drone logic behind it, but it seems much more like part of a stricter mobilization model: first, the state suppresses communications and limits access to keep people within a controlled digital environment, and only afterward will it conduct a new wave of mobilization with less chaos and less room for resistance. Russia is preparing for a larger war and a broader mobilization. For the process to go smoothly, the regime needs to reduce information leaks, make summonses digital and unavoidable, and narrow the space for evasion and escape. That’s why Russia has already launched electronic summonses - to make it harder for men to avoid conscription. We don’t know exactly where the Kremlin will deploy the next wave of cannon fodder. But we do know that Putin is already expanding the army to 1.5 million active personnel, and the Kremlin has openly justified this by citing threats on the Western flank and the need to create new structures in the northwest. Analysts have noted that Russia cannot start a second war without withdrawing forces from Ukraine. However, for a limited local operation - for example, in the Baltic region - Russia might need roughly 60-90 thousand troops for a second theater. Not "another Ukraine." Not hundreds of thousands in the first wave. Just 60-90 thousand, if they are supported with drones, artillery, air defense, electronic warfare, engineers, and a functional command structure. For a wider multi-vector operation - around 100-140 thousand. So, for a localized crisis, Russia doesn’t need "a second army like in Ukraine." It needs a second strike package sufficient to break the first hours of defense. It’s important not to measure Russia with the old yardstick - number of divisions, tanks, or conventional mass. Russia can enter differently: fewer people, more drones, electronic warfare, long-range fire, mining, and targeted suppression of command. Estonian intelligence reports directly that Russia is deploying a new branch of unmanned forces, expecting around 190 battalions of unmanned systems. The Baltic Fleet already has a regiment of unmanned naval strike systems. Meanwhile, production of large-caliber ammunition has increased more than 17-fold since 2021. This is preparation for the next war while the current one continues. To field such a second strike package without reducing pressure on Ukraine, Russia, in my view, would need a new mobilization wave of roughly 180-250 thousand people. In a stronger scenario - 250-350 thousand. That’s why digital control over society is so important for the Kremlin: it makes a new mobilization more manageable. These are estimates, but if the Kremlin launches a strict mobilization model and a new wave of conscription, it could achieve early operational readiness for a local operation in 12-18 months, reach a plateau of sufficient readiness in 18-24 months, and achieve more sustainable capacity in 30-36 months. This is much faster than the reassuring "6-10 years" Europe often cites for preparation, because "6-10 years" refers to a large war with NATO, not a short, high-intensity shock. Russia’s ability to rapidly form new structures is already evident - for example, the 44th Army Corps was built in 7-8 months. Finally, the war in Iran drastically lowers the cost of a major war for the Kremlin and brings it closer. Russia is the main beneficiary of chaos in the Middle East: Brent is around $103 versus the $59 per Urals assumed in the Russian budget. Cuts to expenditures of 10% can be postponed. Moreover, as The Independent notes, the oil price surge effectively breaks the logic of exhausting the Russian budget: an extra $6-10 billion in less than a month already covers the estimated $6.6 billion monthly cost of compensations and recruitment replacements. So, as of now, war is becoming cheaper for Moscow, and new escalation is closer than ever.

@KateGoesTech Then there is Poland, they have some scores to settle with Russia. Invaded by Russia in 1939, Massacre in Katyn forest, occupied for 50 years. x.com/wartranslated/…

@KateGoesTech There are NATO international battle groups in the baltics. Troops from 16 NATO countries will automatically be involved. Those countries will have to go all out to support the Baltic states and their own troops on the ground x.com/JonSurf6/statu…

Won't be surprised if Baltic states suddenly “stop meeting NATO membership standards” in the nearest months 🙃

@FinskiX @JayinKyiv US total aid of all types was $51 billion. Lots of creative accounting, old weapons sent costed at price of new which went to US military. $20 billion sent to Poland included in Ukraine assistance. Read linked article on attached for more info. x.com/JonSurf6/statu…

@JayinKyiv He didn't get the memo?