Jonathan F K Neill

@DeepIceValue Why would you not include PDD as a Chinese investment? Seems odd.

If you dont count $PDD as China investment, $TCEHY is the best pick ahead of: $BABA $JD $BIDU $BYDDY $NIO

@EquityBrian Yes indeed. Absolute nonsense. Great piece on Baidu by the way. Thank you. JFKN

The market when a China headline drops that has nothing to do with any of the companies it’s selling off

@EquityBrian Correct. Nonsense story and like to be reversed in due course.

As usual, seeing plenty of strange takes on the China broker crackdown. Mainland investors can own overseas stocks through approved channels. The issue is $FUTU, $TIGR, etc. allegedly offering unauthorized cross-border brokerage access to mainland clients, something regulators have been warning about for years. Yet I’ve already seen a bunch of headlines/tweets claiming this is somehow a crackdown on Chinese ADRs specifically, which just isn’t true. It makes very little sense that huge numbers were using offshore brokers to buy the US ADRs of companies they can already buy in Hong Kong through Stock Connect. I get the knee-jerk reaction, but fundamentally this seems pretty irrelevant for most Chinese ADRs.

Again @wigmore_hall the Quatuor Ébène showcase their astonishing skills in one of Beethoven's Op. 18 quartets and then most dramatically in his Op. 135 & 131. The quartets still sound so modern; one can only wonder how this music sounded to his contemporaries, so raw, so brash.

Wonder if we will ever hear a finer performance of Beethoven's Op. 127 string quartet than we heard @wigmore_hall last evening as the Ébène Quartet presented three, two from Op. 18. The slow movement the highlight of the concert, sustained, intense, ethereal. More on Saturday.

Don't miss Heart Wall @bushtheatre a fine piece of theatre superbly well crafted, acted and presented, it may indeed be the play of the year as suggested by The Times. Fringe theatres like the Bush deserve all our support otherwise as Churchill said, What are we fighting for?

@RyanRael16 @TheLongInvest Excellent points. Still worth owning though in our view, in appropriate size as you say. Along with Tencent , Meituan, PDD etc. All the same trade in the end I suppose. Thank you. JFKN

The thesis is not wrong but the risk is binary and most people underestimate it. Both names trade at significant discounts to US tech peers on every fundamental metric. Alibaba at 10x earnings and Baidu with net cash exceeding market cap at certain points this year are genuinely cheap if you believe the China growth story and the geopolitical relationship stabilizes. The problem is both risks got larger this week not smaller. The Iran conflict has strengthened the US-China tensions underpinning the tech war. China buying Iranian oil at a discount through the blockade keeps it strategically aligned against US interests. Any escalation in Taiwan risk or semiconductor export restrictions reprices both names 20-30% overnight regardless of fundamentals. Cheap Chinese tech is a value trap or a generational buy depending entirely on one variable. The geopolitical trajectory between Washington and Beijing. That is not a fundamental call. It is a macro call with binary outcomes. Know what you are actually buying before sizing in.

$BABA $BIDU are BUYS

Courageous look at the Iphigenia story @arcolatheatre although the writing not always up to the mark while @MaryleboneTHLDN Miller's The Price gets its second airing in recent times, after a sluggish first half becomes utterly compelling in the second with fine key performances.

@Mr_Derivatives You can own both - just weight them carefully.

$KWEB at all time lows relative to $SPY. $KWEB at all time lows relative to $QQQ. $KWEB near all time lows relative to $DIA. $KWEB near all time lows relative to $IWM. I mean at some point....

@__Con_ It is indeed. Enough with the Asian Semis! Enough already!

I still think the China thesis is playing out. $BABA might be the next stock in the thesis. Just finished its ABC wave lower (in a larger wave 4 retracement). It's time to send higher now. Soon...

@dirtygreenpaper A brave call indeed. Korea and Taiwan certainly taking up all (most of?) the oxygen. For now.

China stocks have bottomed. Today was the bottom. Will delete if I'm wrong. FA

@SwissKnifeInv Great investors have blind spots too. JFKN

$BABA - Druckenmiller is right about the ROIC problem. Chinese competition is a race to the bottom. But at 17x earnings, I think the market already knows. That’s why I bought it anyway.

@EquityBrian EV/EBITDA for JD in 2029 is 2.9X; for Baidu 5.3X etc

What’s your best idea or highest-conviction long right now? Bonus points if you share the bull case.

@EquityBrian JD, Babs, Baiders, Mighters, PDD. Not necessarily in that order. JFKN

@BrianTycangco @michaeljburry Not sure that had much to do with it tbh.

Don’t look now but $JD is up 8% for the day and, with that move, has gone positive for the year! This after news that @michaeljburry added to his position in the company.

@TheValueTrade You can own both. We do.

$BABA VS $AMZN This is a great comparison! $BABA is cheaper across the board P/E: 27 vs 32 P/S: 2.4 vs 3.5 P/B: 2.4 vs 6 P/FCF: 41 vs 320+ So why the gap? It comes down to trust + growth. $AMZN has consistent growth, AWS, high-margin ads, and predictable cash flow. $BABA has slower growth, more competition, heavier reinvestment, and China risk still priced in. The big one = FCF. On paper, $BABA looks cheap… but the market doesn’t seem to be pricing this in yet... but it will.. Since 2020: $AMZN +33% $BABA -57% My take: $BABA = value play (and I think it’s a buy here) $AMZN = still strong, but I expect a pullback… would be surprised if Wave C is already done.

@EquityBrian MSFT CRM and for the criminally insane ADBE

Software stocks getting taken out back and shot. What’s the best name to buy if I want to lose all my money too?

@EquityBrian Correct - also true for JD, BIDU, Meituan, Tencent, KWEB etc. Safe travels! JFKN

Anything under $120 on $BABA is back-up-the-truck territory. NFA.

A fresh look at The Crucible as John Procter is the Villain excites audiences @royalcourt while The Doll's House is credibly updated @AlmeidaTheatre and Liaisons Dangereuses @NationalTheatre slightly de-fanged, our hero as endearing as an Irish cabbie lacking necessary gravitas.

@EquityBrian Indeed but one can always own both, just a matter of sizing. JFKN

I still see no reason to own $PDD over $BABA