Jonathan Miller

"just because the #appraiser doesn’t agree with the purchase price, whatever the reason, doesn’t mean they’re wrong." Soaring Home Prices Are Roiling #Appraisals and Upending Sales @NicoleFriedman @WSJ @WSJRealEstate buff.ly/2Yxp8Gk

Doing research, and came across this... Census Bureau data tells us that in 2023, there were 987,897 total employer and nonemployer Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers. For the sake of comparison, there were 922,440 Beauty Salons.

julie brown finally got her pulitzer

Westchester, Brooklyn, Long Island

The share of Americans who say their financial situation is getting worse (55%) is higher now than at any point in the past 25 years. 👉🏻 axios.com/2026/04/28/tru…

So appreciate the opportunity @mrkorangy - will be fun!

Thanks Chris!

Workers reinstall clock at the information booth in Grand Central. New-York City. 1954

In his first column at TRD, @JonathanMiller unpacks billionaire worship, mega-mansion hype and the forces shaping today’s market. 🎁 Read it at the gift link: therealdeal.com/new-york/2026/…

Housing Notes now has a new home. @JonathanMiller, author of the industry's most authoritative residential market report, will now publish his long-running Manhattan Market Report and his column on The Real Deal. He'll also share exclusive data from StreetMatrix, his latest venture, to TRD Data subscribers. Miller will provide TRD's readers with insights on housing, economics, wealth and market psychology.

@FairweatherPhD Hmm. Housing is local. In aggregate, sure but not even in regional markets like the northeast and midwest where supply is tight and shrinking.

Everyone's talking about inflation, but almost no one is talking about the force that could quietly deflate it for the next decade or more. It's housing. Home prices are up just 1% year-over-year. Asking rents (the ones you see posted on sites like Redfin) have been essentially flat since 2022. The shelter index is still elevated at 3%, but it has come way down from its 8% peak in 2022, and I expect it to keep falling. Here's why this matters long-term, not just right now: We are finally building the right kind of housing in the right places. Multi-family construction is now 4x what it was in the 2010s. Single-family construction, by contrast, is actually 20% below where it was in the 2000s. We're building less of the inefficient, sprawling housing and more of the dense, efficient kind. I argue that this is the direct result of zoning reform spreading across the country. Minneapolis led the way in 2018, followed by Florida, Montana, California, Arizona, parts of Texas, and more. Local leaders have finally realized: the way to make housing affordable is to allow more of it to get built. The economist Ed Glaeser estimated that inefficient land use is holding back the U.S. economy by 9%. But we're starting to fix that. When more people can live close to the jobs, schools, and businesses they need, they're more productive: less time in cars, more time contributing to the local economy. Thirty three percent of renters now live in multi-family buildings. That's a record high going back to 2011. Even California, hamstrung by Prop 13, is moving in the right direction. Change there will be slow: tax policy keeps longtime homeowners in place, but as that housing stock turns over, dense redevelopment will follow. For a sprawling city like Los Angeles, the long-term implications are enormous. None of this means we're out of the woods right now. The war in Iran is pushing energy prices up, and short-term inflation shocks matter because they shape expectations. The Fed can't ignore what's happening today, even if the long-run trajectory looks more promising. But the housing story is one I don't think gets enough attention. New video breaking this all down, featuring analysis of Redfin data, is linked below. Would love to hear your thoughts. And please subscribe, like and share.

@JohnWake But 2006 was wildy skewed higher by liar loans, no?

That's brutal! The home ownership rate in Arizona fell 10 percentage points from 2006 to 2015.

@SacAppraiser Thats sone serious 70s shag carpet!

All ships rise and fall with the tide. Here’s the median sales price in 12 local counties.

When's the best time to be house hunting? It depends—if you want to see the freshest listings, you should be looking now (late April). If you are flexible and looking for a great deal, you're more likely to find one in the fall. From analysis I published with the team @Redfin...

The Orioles hit so many home runs off the Red Sox tonight that they ran out of fireworks in Baltimore. This is a real tweet.

@SacAppraiser 2008 was an era where there was effective no underwriting - borrowers just needed a pulse or be able to fog a mirror. Banks haven't lost their minds in this cycle. That's the difference.

There are so many flippant comparisons to 2008 in today's housing market, but what do the stats show? I'm not sugarcoating the glaring affordability problem today. I just think sometimes people casually compare without really looking at the stats. More on my weekly blog.

The Pied-à-terre Tax Proposal Will Underwhelm Coffers open.substack.com/pub/jmillerana… @jonathanmiller

Thoughtful analysis by @jonathanmiller , on New York City’s proposed pied‑à‑terre tax. housingnotes.com/p/the-pied-a-t… My Thoughts below👇

Lots of bonus cash, too little supply: "The median sales price for the Hamptons surged 18.3% annually to $2.4M, highest on record, Average sales price also surged 31% to $4.3M, the highest on record -@jonathanmiller

@SacAppraiser Nope.

This new research is interesting, but it’s also based on that same survey that showed first-time buyers are 40 years old. A 120-question survey in the mail with a 3.5% response rate and 6,100 responses nationally. Is this enough to make conclusions about buyers by generation?

The Ansonia condo is a beautiful building but has a legacy of infighting between 4-5 homeowner association factions leading up to its 1980s conversion. Those days are long past. Lots of apartments combined to create large units, especial the small studios. Has some of the widest hallways I’ve ever seen.

Spectacular example of Beaux-Arts architecture ( French Renaissance Revival) at 74th & Broadway