Jonathan Said

In this podcast interview, I provide an optimistic take on African governments and their increasing interest to accelerate economic transformation & job creation. I speak to where the challenge of implementation seems to lie & mention some success cases to build on.

Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria Early African Winners as They Harvest Windfall from the Misery of US–Israel vs Iran War As the world reels from the escalation of the US–Israel vs Iran war that erupted on 28 February, the humanitarian suffering is profound. Yet in the realm of global commerce, a quieter upheaval is underway. With the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz rendered near impassable – shipping traffic down by 90% – Africa has emerged as the world’s most vital logistics corridor. •In KENYA, the once-forgotten LAMU PORT has roared to life. Long dismissed by critics as a white elephant, it has seen a 974% surge in volume. Ultra-large vessels, too deep for Mombasa and too exposed for Gulf waters, now dock at Lamu’s 18-metre natural depth. •ETHIOPIA'S national carrier Ethiopian Airlines has seized the moment. With Dubai and Doha mostly paralysed by airspace risks from Iranian missile and droke strikes, Addis Ababa has become the continent’s primary air-bridge. Cargo revenue is up 14%. High-value goods – electronics, pharmaceuticals, perishables –are now routed through Bole International, bypassing the 40-day sea detour. •NIGERIA is counting its crude. Brent prices hit $120 per barrel in March. Against a budget benchmark of $64.85, daily revenues have doubled. The government has stumbled into an unexpected multi-billion dollar fiscal cushion. •DURBAN, South Africa’s main port, has shed its reputation for congestion. It is now clocking 28 crane moves per hour, processing thousands of ships rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope with a rare level of precision. •MOROCCO'S Royal Air Maroc has moved swiftly. Ten new international routes –including Los Angeles and Beirut – have siphoned off transit passengers who once relied on Middle Eastern hubs. Casablanca traffic is up 12%. •WALVIS BAY in Namibia has become the first reliable refuelling station for ships emerging from the South Atlantic. Bunkering demand is up 30%. •The DANGOTE Petroleum Refinery has in Nigeria, is cashing in. In March, it issued an export tender for 84,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel and diesel. It is no longer just a domestic project – it is replacing Persian Gulf supplies for the continent. •MOZAMBIQUE'S $20 billion LNG project has been fast-tracked. TotalEnergies resumed operations in early 2026. Over 4,000 workers are racing to meet an accelerated production date. Iranian gas is out. Mozambican gas is in. •At Mozambique's PORT of MAPUTO, volumes grew by 16% in the weeks following the war’s outbreak. Chrome and coal exporters have abandoned northern routes in favour of the safer Indian Ocean–Cape corridor. •MAURITIUS, ever shrewd, has leveraged its mid-ocean position into a 15% revenue increase. High-end logistics and emergency repair services are now its bread and butter. But no doubt, the most intriguing twist is the Roll-on/Roll-off (RoRo) revolution in Lamu. Manufacturers are using RoRo ships – where vehicles are driven on and off via ramps – to offload thousands of cars. These are then ferried to the Gulf on small, low-risk boats to avoid the $200,000+ war risk insurance premiums slapped on large carriers entering the Strait of Hormuz. To protect this windfall, Kenya and Ethiopia have launched joint military operations along the once-languishing Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor. This unprecedented coordination is designed to ensure that the new “safe harbour” of Lamu remains shielded from regional spillover. And because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz marooned shipping containers, an emergency air-bridge has formed. Nairobi and Addis Ababa are now the primary transit points for consumer electronics flown from Asia to Europe—bypassing the the 17,700KM sea detour. US leader Donald Trump despises Africa, once labelling its countries "sh*thole", but while many of them will be hit hard by rising energy and fertilisers from America and Israel's attack on Iran, several of them will get a bounty he would never have wished for them.

@JonathanSaid1 Agreed. The "Industrialist" in the driving seat is a shift from Rent-seeking to Value-creating. It replaces the "Toll-gate" mentality—where elites profit from what passes through—with a "Power-plant" mentality—where they profit from what is built.

Lack of proper industrial policy for the AU agenda at regional & national levels, including industrial policy support. We need to get the industrialists in the driving seat, backed by the many visionary political elites, and supported by the right technical expertise.

Excellent paper by @nfgregory @ODI_Global on how new growth theories since the 1990s improve on the neoclassical growth framework of 60s that most DFIs are still based on. It identifies 7 differences, inc industrial policy. We need DFIs for 21st Century. odi.org/en/publication…

Political economy smart industrial policy, as a collaboration between political visionaries in govt & such potential industrialists. It’s happening: SL onions, CIV cashew, TZ & Nigeria rice, Zambia & Benin soybean, pharma Ethiopia etc. But will take 10-20 yrs to take off well.

@eajene @TheEconomist Political economy smart industrial policy, as a collaboration between political visionaries in govt and such potential industrialists. It’s happening (SL onions, CIV cashew, TZ & Nigeria rice, Zambia & Benin soybean etc). But it so take 10-20 years more to take off.

Africa's industrialist-in-chief, Aliko Dangote, shared his theory of African industrialization in an interview @TheEconomist published earlier this week. "If we don’t invest, nobody will come and invest in our continent." Who led investment into East Asia? "It wasn’t the Europeans. It was led by themselves as Asians." The industrialists building India? "They’re all Indians." "If we Africans don't lead in the industrialization of Africa, Africa will never industrialize." That argument isn't necessarily new. But Dangote is uniquely credible among those who make it. • His petroleum refinery processes up to 650k barrels of oil per day — the IMF estimates that run at full capacity it adds 1.5% to Nigeria's non-oil GDP. • His fertilizer plant produces 3M metric tons of fertilizer annually — more than any other plant in Africa. • His cement operations produce over 48M metric tons annually across multiple plants, making Dangote Cement the continent's largest producer. It's evidence that huge returns can be had in African markets by installing the kind of industrial capacity that exists everywhere else in the world. But to transform Africa from a resource exporter to an industrial powerhouse at scale, a new generation may need to follow Dangote's blueprint. The challenge as the man himself notes: "Africans generally might not have this kind of capital. Even when they have, they don’t want to invest." What do you think? What would it take for a new generation of industrialists to emerge across Africa?

Asia did not listen to the World Bank. But Africa, except for maybe Ethiopia, Morocco, Egypt & SA. largely did. Reasons behind the continent's lack of industrialization

“The second piece is an agreement on steps that would give American businesses more access to Zambia’s vast mineral deposits and, by extension, end what the United States sees as China’s preferential access to Zambian mines.”nytimes.com/2026/03/16/hea…

The wait is almost over. Tomorrow, the “How Africa Works” Webinar goes live. We’re bringing together three distinct voices to explore the future of Africa’s structural transformation: • Joe Studwell, Author of How Africa Works • Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u, Former Treasury CS & Governor, Central Bank of Kenya • Charles Macharia, A smallholder Farmer, Slow Farm Kenya Together, they will unpack the role of agriculture, policy, and practice in shaping Africa’s long-term economic growth. Register here to join the conversation: agra-org.zoom.us/webinar/regist… #AGRA #AGRAImpact #HowAfricaWorks

Join us tomorrow at 3pm Nairobi time for a conversation with Joe Studwell on his new book How Africa Works. Register here: agra-org.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

Why do some countries achieve sustained economic transformation while others struggle? In just 2 days, we’ll unpack this question through the insights of Joe Studwell, author of How Africa Works. Join us as we explore what it will take to unlock Africa’s next phase of economic growth, and the role agriculture and policy must play in getting there. Don’t miss out on this conversation. Register through this link: agra-org.zoom.us/webinar/regist… #AGRA #AGRAImpact #HowAfricaWorks

Thank you, Your H.E. President @julius_maadabio for your leadership at the Q1 2026 Presidential Council Meeting for the Delivery of #FeedSalone. In a time of global uncertainty, your call for #SierraLeone to be food sovereign resonates even more strongly. For #FeedSalone, 2026 is a year of accelerated action. Our focus is clear: finish what we started and make this transformation irreversible. Grateful to colleagues across government, our partners, and the private sector for their continued support. #WeWillFeedSalone

6 days to go until our upcoming webinar, “How Africa Works.” Inspired by Joe Studwell’s latest book, this conversation will explore a central question in development: why do some nations achieve sustained growth while others struggle? We’ll also dive into how agriculture forms the foundation of long-term economic transformation, and what this means for policy and development across Africa. Don’t miss this important conversation. Date: 17 March 2026 Time: 3:00 PM EAT Register here: agra-org.zoom.us/webinar/regist… #AGRA #AGRAImpact #HowAfricaWorks

Breaking News: New video adds to evidence that a U.S. missile likely hit an Iranian school where 175 people, many of them children, were reportedly killed. nyti.ms/4ls4WMr

Just hours after this conference, the Israeli military deliberately hit a UN camp in Lebanon where Ghanaian peacekeepers were off duty, celebrating their national Independence Day.

🗯️Shame. President Roberta Metsola argues int'l law should not apply to Iran because it doesn’t respect it “like us.” “Us” meaning the EU: the top trading partner of an apartheid state committing genocide in full view of the world. ▶️Europe at its lowest. x.com/Avvenire_Nei/s…

Old enough to remember when Carney was lamenting the death of the rules based order.

For Agro Kai, an Ugandan agro processor, working with farmers reduces uncertainty, reduces transport costs though aggregation and stabilizes its supply chain. This means better income for farmers. monitor.co.ug/uganda/magazin…

Malawi's finance minister said on Friday that public debt had reached unsustainable levels above 90% of gross domestic product, threatening economic stability in the donor-dependent Southern African nation. reuters.com/world/africa/m…

@OdrekRwabwogo 🎯 Great interview of Presidential Advisor on how Uganda doubled its value-added exports (mainly Agr for now) from $4b in 2022 to $8b in 2024 - 👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿 @OdrekRwabwogo - as u focus on fewer products, think clusters - worked in China. @DavidNdii @JonathanSaid1 @BBSimons worth a 👁️