Moses

I keep coming back to this: crude has bypass plumbing. LNG has none. Qatar's force majeure means the gas isn't even queuing for Hormuz.

Dubai’s commitment to world-class logistics was on full display as HH Sheikh Hamdan visited Jebel Ali Port to review ongoing operations. @HamdanMohammed #Dubai #Logistics #JebelAliPort #SheikhHamdan

India-Russia already tried rupee settlement. Indian banks sat on billions they couldn't repatriate. Liquidity is plumbing, not preference.

🚨Copper is up 77%📈 Consensus has finally caught up to the supply shortage thesis. ⚠️ The problem? The obvious trade long the metal and big copper producers is already crowded. The real asymmetry sits 2 steps deeper into the chain. In my latest article I walks through exactly that. why pure copper and pure miners are the wrong way to play AI data center demand? where the US chokepoints actually sit? If you want to know the full case with names, math, triggers of the 2 US mid-caps. Read my latest article. The link is here👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…

@ekwufinance 65% equities while insurers still won't touch Hormuz transit. The spread between the allocation chart and actual shipping bookings is the whole story.

Bank of America private clients are going all in on equities. Everyone seems to believe Hormuz will open tomorrow… for the past 2 months. The severity of the crisis isn’t reflected in anything.

@BullTheoryio Higher for longer with this fiscal picture. Zero income tax jurisdictions looking less like a lifestyle choice, more like risk management.

🚨 THE U.S. BOND MARKET IS SCREAMING A MASSIVE WARNING. While the S&P 500 just hit a fresh record high of 7,501, the bond market is pricing in higher interest rates for longer. The 30 year yield is at 5.085%. The 20 year is at 5.092%. The 10 year is at 4.538%. Every maturity is rising at the same time. Stocks are at all time highs because the AI boom is driving earnings and the market is pricing in years of continued growth. Bond yields do not care about AI. They care about a $2 trillion annual deficit, oil at $100, persistent inflation and a government borrowing more money every single day to fund a war. Both cannot be right. And historically it is not the bond market that is wrong.

@HedgieMarkets 30-year at 5.1% with inflation still running hot. Zero-tax jurisdictions aren't exotic anymore, they're portfolio logic.

🦔The 30-year Treasury yield jumped 8.6 basis points to 5.1% Friday morning, the highest in nearly a year. The 10-year hit 4.55% and the 2-year rose to 4.06%. The move follows this week's hot inflation data with CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 6.0%, and import prices up 4.2% annually. WTI crude jumped to $104. Interest on the federal debt is now the second-largest line item after Social Security. German bunds, Japanese JGBs, and UK gilts are all spiking together. My Take Long-end yields have taken control of monetary policy, which is the biggest development in markets this week and is getting less attention than it deserves. Kevin Warsh just got confirmed as Fed chair on Wednesday, and his ability to deliver the rate cuts Trump is demanding is being constrained in real time by the bond market itself. A 5.1% 30-year is the market saying inflation expectations are not anchored, fiscal deficits are unsustainable, and the next rate cut will show up as a higher long-end yield rather than a lower one. The global spike in yields removes the easy "this is just American politics" explanation. German, Japanese, and UK long-end rates all moved together, which suggests bond investors are repricing fiscal and inflation risk across developed economies. For anyone managing personal finances, mortgage rates are not coming down meaningfully, long-duration assets like growth stocks and long bonds remain exposed, cash in high-yield savings continues to outperform inflation, and any plan to refinance variable-rate debt after a Fed cut just got pushed further out. Hedgie🤗

U.S. Admiral Says Operation EPIC FURY Rolled Back ‘40 Years’ of Iranian Military Investment gcaptain.com/u-s-admiral-sa…

@HedgieMarkets Self-checkout walkback is the most honest thing Walmart's done in years. Same story in port automation. Pitch decks promise 40% headcount cuts, reality is 15%. Tech works. Timeline doesn't.

🦔Walmart is eliminating or relocating roughly 1,000 corporate jobs in its tech and digital operations, consolidating teams in Bentonville and Northern California. The company did not cite AI as the reason, which separates this round from Cloudflare, Coinbase, and Upwork cuts earlier this month. Some affected employees are being offered relocation rather than separation. Walmart's stock barely moved on the news. The company cut 1,500 corporate workers last May, and announced in the same week that it is scaling back self-checkout in favor of human cashiers. My Take Walmart skipping the AI excuse on these cuts is genuinely refreshing, because every other tech-adjacent company this month has used AI as cover for what is really just operational restructuring. The work is being consolidated, layers are being removed, and some employees are getting relocation offers rather than pink slips. That is a more honest description of what most of these layoffs actually are than the language we have been getting from Cloudflare, Coinbase, and Cisco. The self-checkout reversal running in parallel is interesting, because Walmart spent the last decade promising investors that automation would replace cashiers and now they are quietly walking it back. Theft losses, customer frustration, and lost impulse purchases at the register all hurt the bottom line, and the conclusion appears to be that humans were doing more of the job than the automation people thought. That is a useful contrast to the AI rollout happening across the rest of the corporate world, because it suggests the productivity case for automation is not as clean as the deployment timeline implied, and the companies cutting workers fastest right now may be running the same experiment Walmart already finished. Hedgie🤗

S&P at highs, majority below 200-day MA, margin debt above dot-com peaks. I've seen this movie. Narrow leadership, broad rot. Not gentle.

FIEO has welcomed @narendramodi five-nation tour to the UAE, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Italy from May 15–20, calling it a key step toward strengthening India’s trade and investment ties amid global economic uncertainty. @DoC_GoI @MEAIndia @minmsme @FieoHq #PMModi #FIEO

@MikeZaccardi Breadth divergences persist longer than seems possible. Resolution is usually less polite.

S&P 500 soars to a record high... -More stocks declining than advancing -More 52wk lows than 52wk highs -More stocks below 200dma than above

@Amena__Bakr Smart. Built before it was needed, worked when called on. Expanding proven bypass > building alternatives after the fact.

UAE will have a new pipeline to Fujariah to double the current capacity…. Critical in bypassing Hormuz #OOTT

🇨🇳 🚢The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index rose by 9.5% w/w, at 2,140.66. $SCFI #Shipping #Shanghai #China

MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 A $13 billion LNG project just got the green light from investors to begin major construction The project will produce 9.5m tons/year of LNG by 2030, further cementing the US as the world’s biggest supplier of the fuel

The Swiss confederal system enables votes like this to happen. While this proposal may have meaningful support, Switzerland's economy would be severely damaged in the process. #switzerland #population #demographics

@GlobalMktObserv Charts like this are why jurisdictions with real banking reserves and zero income tax exist. Capital goes where it's treated rationally.

🔴Retail investors' level of speculation is at record levels: US net margin debt is up to ~50% of gross customer balances, near the highest on record. This measures how much investors have borrowed to buy stocks above what they hold in cash. As a % of US equity market cap, this figure is up to near a record ~1.3%. Both metrics are now ABOVE the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak levels. Investors are taking on near record levels of borrowed money to buy stocks, meaning any sharp market decline would trigger forced selling as brokers demand repayment of those loans. If something goes wrong in the market, this will end up in tears.

@GlobalMktObserv 3.92% on the 30yr. Regime shift, not a sell-off. Carry trade capital already rotating.

⚠️THERE WE GO: The 30-year Japanese bond yield is up another +10 basis points, to 3.92%, on track for the highest daily close since its debut in 1999. 40-year JGB yield is up +6 basis points, to 4.16%, on track for the highest weekly close since its debut in 2007. Global bond market sell-off is ACCELERATING.

Waiting on the rest of this

Murban corrected faster than CPC. One has bypass infrastructure, the other doesn't. China SPR tap confirms the constraint. Rates don't lie.