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Jønathan Wøød
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Jønathan Wøød
@JonathanWood
Socialism ☮️❤️ & understanding. @Arsenal @TheKinks @WorkersPartyGB 🎶🌱🏃🏻♂️ 🚩
With the punks in Praed St. Katılım Şubat 2009
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48 HOURS | Day 23 | Trump Hormuz deadline | Energy ‘obliteration’ threat | Missiles pound Israel x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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Remember as America declines, the stock market machine that has generated billions will decline with it.
The system will undergo repricing.
People will get hurt by the markets.
And not everyone.
The ones that get hurt are the ones whose entire thesis is "the market goes up because it has always gone up."
And there's a lot of them out there.
That thesis is not an analysis.
It is a description of the FIC's capital allocation machinery operating as intended. When the machinery stutters,
which it certainly will,
that thesis evaporates, and the people holding positions based on it discover that they were not investing.
They were riding a mechanical flow that they mistook for a market.
The multipolar transition is going to increases the advantage of fundamental analysis over passive strategies, for a specific structural reason.
In the unipolar era, the FIC's machinery compressed the dispersion between good companies and bad companies.
Index funds bought everything. Cheap credit sustained everything. Buybacks inflated everything. A terrible company with declining revenue could maintain its share price for years because it was in an index and the index received automatic inflows.
Fundamental analysis was still correct in identifying the good companies, but the payoff for being correct was muted because the bad companies were being artificially sustained alongside the good ones.
In a bifurcating world, dispersion increases. The companies that have diversified into growth markets, that generate real cash flow from real economic activity, that are not dependent on the American consumer's credit card, those companies pull away from the companies that remain domestically trapped, debt-dependent, and structurally exposed to the declining platform.
The gap between the winners and losers widens.
And that widening gap is exactly what fundamental analysis is designed to exploit.
The bigger the dispersion, the more a good stock picker outperforms the index, because the index is averaging across an increasingly bimodal distribution of outcomes.
So the analyst who screens for undervalued companies with strong fundamentals and a foresight into geographic diversification and geopolitical impact, is positioned to outperform not just in normal conditions but specifically during the transition.
They are selecting for companies on the right side of the structural shift while the passive machinery continues to hold companies on both sides indiscriminately.
The passive investment machinery breaks for everyone eventually. The fundamental analyst is not just protected from that break. They profit from it, because the break creates exactly the kind of dislocation that fundamental analysis was built to exploit: good companies temporarily mispriced because the selling was mechanical rather than analytical, bad companies finally repriced to reflect the reality that the machinery was concealing.
The multipolar transition is, from the perspective of a disciplined fundamental analyst, the biggest opportunity in a generation.
The structural shift creates dispersion.
Dispersion creates mispricing.
Mispricing is where returns live.
The analyst who understands the framework's structural map and applies it to their existing fundamental toolkit is not just picking stocks.
They are positioning across a global reordering with an analytical advantage that most market participants, still operating on unipolar-era assumptions, do not possess.
That global reordering is coming.
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48 HOURS | Day 23 | Trump Hormuz deadline | Energy ‘obliteration’ threat | Missiles pound Israel x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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🚨🚨| Tottenham have gone 13 league games WITHOUT a win for the first time in 91 years. 🤯
[@Squawka]


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@ArsenalN7 @Langford_Gooner Silva has committed 3 punishable fouls. He’s got protective cap around him. 🤯
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Buzzcocks in Manchester, England (1979) #punkrock
📸 Adrian Boot
@GeorgiosMasman2 @NewWaveAndPunk @Schnitzel63 @dirk7890 @notoldnoje @FatOldAnarchist

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