Jordan D@rty

N30: Own The Edge

@CJHandmer Glad you persevered!!!

Got it running with a terrain map in cesium. This is NASA LROC LOLA data at full resolution. I take a close look at Malapert and Leibniz peaks near the south pole.

@Rory_Johnston Pretty sure Jask is part of the blockade. CENTCOM memo blockades all Iran ports, PG and Arabian Sea.

Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk. Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and irresponsible to clam it’s not a serious ongoing crisis. Bad estimates (the reality below) 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute (That’s total East -West pipeline capacity, already had 2-2.5 on the line so remaining “swing” from Gulf to Red Sea is 4.5-5.0 MMbpd) 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus (We did have a pre-war surplus, but it was closer to 2 MMbpd, and even that remains disputed—I was on the bearish side of the debate) 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute (Again, this is the pipe capacity—swing is more like 0.5-0.7) 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass (This is silly, Jask never demonstrated that capacity but more fundamentally Iran Hormuz flows actually remain higher than that at 1.5+ MMbpd) 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) In reality, we have ~13 MMbpd of upstream Gulf production offline, with no sustainable offset—SPRs, etc. are only a temporary help. Today’s Trump blockade would raise that to more than 15 MMbpd.

This might be the most important chart nobody is paying attention to right now. S&P 500 on top, yield curve in the middle, Fed Funds rate on the bottom. Nearly 30 years of data. Before every major decline over the last three decades, the same pattern played out. New all-time highs. The yield curve inverts and then un-inverts. The Fed starts cutting rates. The Dot Com bubble. The Great Financial Crisis. The Pandemic. Currently, S&P 500 is near all-time highs. Yield curve recently came out of an incredibly long and deep inversion. Fed cutting rates from the highest level since 2007. I don't pretend to know what's going to happen. I just find interesting patterns in the market. As Mark Twain once said, history doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes. But if something bigger does play out, we're all going to look back at this chart and wonder how it was so obvious. Then again… I know, I know. "This time is different." It always is, right?

@amlivemon @tyillc So we grind higher?!?! 😭

U.S. strategy: chaos in ROW, drive capital into US, keep bubble inflated

@amlivemon I wish it was that easy I’ve been sweating my shorts since the pullback though

I cut all my longs and kept buying puts Friday lol

@JavierBlas @M_C_Klein That was also before Pakistan deployed 13,000 troops to KSA. Tactics shifted but the spigot is being managed.

I’m old enough to remember when the Trump administration eased US sanctions on Iranian oil. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time. That was 3 weeks ago. Now a blockade.

Taiwan Helium Imports shifting from Qatar to the USA:

FUN FACT: LatAm & Caribbean is a nuke-free zone.…since Feb. 14, 1967. - Treaty of Tlatelolco - Signed in Mexico City - All 33 nations of LAC region

12th-century Genoese bankers accidentally created the greatest monetary innovation since coinage itself when they started using bills of exchange to avoid hauling gold across the Mediterranean. Picture this: You're a Genoese merchant in 1156 who needs to pay for spices in Constantinople. Instead of loading a ship with gold coins (and hiring an army to protect them), you walk into a local banking house and deposit your gold. They hand you a piece of paper—a bill of exchange—that you can redeem for Byzantine coins when you reach the Golden Horn. The banker charges you a small fee, but you save massive transportation and security costs. This wasn't some grand monetary theory. Genoese bankers simply responded to market incentives. Shipping gold was expensive and dangerous. Pirates infested trade routes. Storms sank ships. Smart merchants wanted to transfer purchasing power without transferring physical metal. The bankers who figured out how to do this reliably got rich. The ones who didn't went bankrupt. Within decades, these bills were circulating as money themselves. Why redeem your bill for gold if the guy you're buying from will accept the bill directly? The paper became a claim on gold held in Genoese vaults, traded freely across Europe and the Levant. Medieval merchants had essentially reinvented fractional reserve banking and created the first international paper currency. Here's what the central banking apologists always miss: this system worked because it was voluntary, competitive, and backed by real assets. Genoese banks competed for customers by maintaining better gold reserves and more reliable redemption policies. No government mandated anything. No central authority printed money at will. Market forces alone created and sustained this monetary revolution. You can't separate sound money from free markets—the Genoese proved it 800 years before Mises wrote his first word about banking.

@Scorpio_Alejand @TOzgokmen ISO-duration? JPM moving gold desk to Singapore seemed important. 🙏

1st time, since IR War, in which Gold & Silver drop with the Bundle™ of stocks & BTC even during the weekend. “Only War matters” Prof. @TOzgokmen has long desired a War to lift recommended Dragon Gold Price to wet dreams levels of $20k/oz. But once War came, Gold went only down.

Pls help - What % of petrochemical feedstock could be derived from methane alone? #caseyhandmer #terraformindustries #razoroil

Happy International Day of Human Space Flight, Here are some of my space art i made with blender

The ideal place for a family compound isn't just a state – it's a formula: Rural county Outside city limits 5-20+ acres (space for privacy, gardens, animals) 30-60 minutes from a hospital Loose zoning (multiple homes allowed) Enough neighbors to feel safe, but not boxed in 15-30 minutes from a local downtown or hardware store Climate you enjoy (mild winters, long growing season) Reliable utilities or easy off-grid access Year-round road access Land that fits your lifestyle (pasture, forest, ponds, orchards) Water access - ponds, creeks, or wells Sun & wind - south-facing slopes, natural protection

6000 Years of World History in 1 Picture

The only way in which an oil price shock permeates overall inflation is if governments respond by spending and printing more. Oil shocks and wars are disinflationary forces, as money velocity contracts; more units of currency go to energy and fewer to the rest of the goods. via Bloomberg

@FabianWierczoch Any book recommendation for a macro tourist to learn the basics of the wheat / corn grain markets ?