Joseph Gill

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Joseph Gill

Joseph Gill

@JosephGillMA

The main guy at @MercAnalytic. Hyper personalized basketball analytics. NBA and NCAA consulting. Connect me with players you want to succeed. Find me elsewhere.

New Haven, CT Katılım Kasım 2014
742 Takip Edilen3.5K Takipçiler
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
Because public discourse is finally out there, this was actually the basis of the analytics project that kicked off my career in the field. My partner (@ConnorAllen1995) and I found that the breakeven point was 79.86% in an exactly two-point game in 2016.
Ken Pomeroy@kenpomeroy

Nice to see Jason Kidd pioneering the foul-up-2 strategy. Based on my work with @JonathanSafir, if Zion's true FT skill is less than ~ 63% this would be a good move at the college level. (And a great move if you're in the single bonus.) kenpom.com/blog/the-guide…

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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
Married life
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
@bballbreakdown One unsuccessful possession, seen below (skip to 2:00) involved the Magic getting 4 (!!!) tracked shots off against the Pistons in under 7 seconds. None of them drop. All 4 appear to be, at best, about 10% expected make percentage. youtube.com/watch?v=FiF0J4…
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
@bballbreakdown It all tracks, and in fact, out of those 34 live ball rebounds, there were actually only 28 shots (22 2PAs, 6 3PAs) that were even attempted. EVEN CRAZIER, 18 of those FGAs came on 8 total missed free throws. One successful possession went ORB -> 2PA -> ORB -> Timeout -> 2PM.
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
I have been sent the link on fouling up 3 (by both @bballbreakdown and my partner on fouling up two, @ConnorAllen1995), regarding this statistic. In short, I suspect it's correct on OREB%... but it's also way, way off for contributing to wins. I'll explain:
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
@jaynay1 Right. When I think about a bad possession from from that time frame, I think a mid-range jumper at the end of the shot clock from a non-scorer. When I think about a bad possession these days, I think a contested shot off the dribble that didn’t need to be taken. That tracks.
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Joseph Nation
Joseph Nation@jaynay1·
@JosephGillMA web.archive.org/web/2012022519… There's the rebounding one using a similar methodology. I don't see the one for usage on a quick glance, but his blog was primarily active from 2007-2008 so that probably gives you the time range. The theory of a shift over time would make sense.
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
Years ago I started to talk about what I called “Usage Crunch.” The usage rate of a lineup is always 100%. If you take five players whose preferred style of play results in a 25% usage rate, you don’t get a 125% usage rate. You get a lot of bad shots early in the shot clock.
Ryan Miele@BuckAnalytics

Here are the best and worst archetype pairings in college basketball over the last 3 seasons. The biggest takeaway?Complimentary players win and redundant creators lose.

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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
@jaynay1 I haven’t run any numbers on it, but my smell test leads me to believe that as skill curves have (likely) flattened in today’s NBA, effects that mitigate a skill curve are worth less than they would’ve been 20-30 years ago.
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
@jaynay1 Would be very interested to see the study, particularly the date on it! Unfortunately, a lot of this is based on my experience with players explicitly telling me that when they play with other high-volume guys, they look for shots earlier, trying to protect their market value.
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
If I was in either of these ladies’ camps, my genuine advice would be to become familiar with The Streisand Effect, and begin answering the questions as flatly, shortly, and repetitiously as possible. Whether you think this should be in/out of bounds, this answer amplifies it.
Myah Taylor@t_myah

Paige Bueckers opened her media day availability with remarks about Azzi Fudd: “Quite frankly, I believe me and Azzi’s personal relationship is nobody’s business but our own.”

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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
Furthermore, are you willing to sell your potential for 25% market rate to a cheap stake who will surely bargain hunt/slash-and-burn on all expenses, ie. players, staff, facilities? Anybody who takes this offer has irrational outlooks and delusions of grandeur. AKA, an idiot.
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
Never mind that you’re part of the management team of a multi-billion dollar investment company, forget that labor/scarcity equation. Through no fault of your own, you may fail, and never be hired I. The league again: Are you willing to sell your potential for 25% market rate?
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
Anybody who accepts an offer near this range is, by definition, an idiot. The NBA is a league with zero job security, and you can only influence coaching/front office outcomes, not control them. A head coach position is a terminal job position. You may be unhirable after it.
NBA Base@TheNBABase

New Blazers owner Tom Dundon is reportedly looking to pay his next head coach in the $1 million per year range — roughly 25% of the NBA market rate, per @billoram "About those rumors… Some say Dundon, whose group is paying $4.25 billion for the franchise, wants to pay in the range of $1 million a year, about a quarter of the market rate. That he’s targeting college coaches and former players — like Denver’s Jared Dudley or Houston’s Royal Ivey — because they might be more likely to accept less money." (oregonlive.com/blazers/2026/0…)

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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
@BobbyTimeclock @bballbreakdown These aren’t exactly guys who aren’t used to things working out for them. They made it to the pinnacle by trusting themselves/their game, then somebody like me comes along and is pitching some pretty significant changes. Basically, survivorship bias of not listening to everybody
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BBALLBREAKDOWN
BBALLBREAKDOWN@bballbreakdown·
I had @JosephGillMA on the podcast, and it's a must listen if you're interested in not only how stats can help player development, but we dove into the mental aspect and reaction to what analytics is saying, and how it can directly lead to making less money. Link to full pod below
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
@BobbyTimeclock @bballbreakdown Every player I ever worked for had at least one things that they thought they were good/great at that they were below league-average, and one thing that they had no clue they were great at. Knowing what you’re good/bad at is, unfortunately, a skill in of itself.
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I just wanted to change it
I just wanted to change it@BobbyTimeclock·
@bballbreakdown @JosephGillMA I’m baffled by how this happens It has to be fear of overly strict coaches, right? Why else would a player be so hesitant to lean into doing more of something they’re awesome at?
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Joseph Gill
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA·
This is probably the most insane statistic that I ever found, still, some 4 years later. Using this process that I developed, I was able to estimate the expected earnings of any player from RFA classes with an R^2 of over 0.80. The game within the game is not that complicated.
Joseph Gill@JosephGillMA

There are 24 weeks in the NBA season. If a future restricted free agent hired somebody that could get them one extra 85% shot at the rim every week, that would end up with an added impact of +$7.6 million on their next deal. That's entirely doable for every player in the NBA.

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Keşfet

@bballbreakdown @ConnorAllen1995 @jaynay1 @BobbyTimeclock @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano