JSE Leveller
2.7K posts
JSE Leveller
@JseLeveller
Not investment advice. Do your own research and place your own bets.
Heaven Katılım Nisan 2019
260 Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
@RealJimChanos @SpaceX Unfortunately, we're in the age of grift and FOMO. Fundamentals have become the investment pariah.
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(2) At the current 50% growth rate Starlink will have 75M subscribers in 2030, worth about $75B in 2026 dollars(10% discount rate) today. If its growth rate slows, then far less. Now you see why “Data centers in space!” is the new narrative. @SpaceX
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The three largest US (30% of global GDP)telecom companies with almost 100% market share, AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon, have a combined market-cap of about $600B. They have slightly over 400M subscribers. That’s $1,500 per sub. Now extrapolate Starlink’s subs/market share.
TrendSpider@TrendSpider
The entire global space economy is estimated at ~$600B. At a $2T valuation, SpaceX would be more worth than 3X the entire industry it operates in.
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@tmaxftw @MacroEdgeRes Yeah, but the guy with fewer brain cells definitely loses.
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@MacroEdgeRes Everyone being 100% full of shit are how most wars are historically fought. The guy with more weapons wins. In this case, the United States of America.
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Iran claims Trump making baseless claims about talks — IM
#MacroEdge
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@Kixik217648 @oguzerkan About those bananas. They tend to attract monkeys.
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@oguzerkan Amazon is already pushing its "cloud car"! Investing is about buying stories; Amazon's story includes rockets, while Walmart's includes discounted bananas.😂
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Can someone explain how $WMT can trade at 46x earnings while $AMZN is at 28x?
Retail? Amazon marketplace is growing faster than Walmart.
Ads? Amazon’s ad revenue is 10x that of Walmart.
Plus, Amazon has the dominant cloud business.
Make it make sense?
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Nobody is replacing the terminal, not because it can't be done, but because it doesn't make economic sense, even for Bloomberg. The terminal is bad and getting worse.
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If Bloomberg was pubic company it's only hope would be paying a fat dividend.
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Aswath Damodaran@AswathDamodaran
In my seventh data update, I look at the choice between borrowed money (debt) and owner funds (equity) that every business has to make, and how those choices played out in 2025, with a callout to the AI cap ex ramp up and private financing along the way. bit.ly/3ZO6Eha
QME
Maybe, just maybe, these five year AI forecasts are just guesses. Really big guesses.
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@RealJimChanos A guess it could be but more like a delusion or a fairy tale
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@RihardJarc Never quite produced any free cash. No dividends. No buy backs.
What is it worth
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We are at the early stages of an industrial revolution, yet the company that owns the biggest infrastructure to serve the technology ( $AMZN ) that is causing this revolution trades at a 13.7x EV/EBITDA, lower than what it was in 2008, and an EV/EBIT that was lower ONLY in 2008.
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Imogen Mashazi says - through her lawyers - that @News24 is harassing her.
She threatened legal action. Let me make it clear - she is accountable for her time in public office.
We are not afraid of her lawyers. More to come.
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@StockMKTNewz Once you experience some these Chinese cars, it becomes obvious that the Germans will become extinct. They're at 50% too expensive. Toyota will be next if they don't up their game and quality.
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@dampedspring You're f'd if you do, and you're f'd if you don't. To be wrong together is OK. Not so by yourself.
Then there's the herd mentality
And a bit of a prisoner's dilemma for them
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Genuine question.
Today we seem to have confidence that our tech overlords are supremely capable in every endeavor. Does anyone have a single example of any tech company in history making a large and successful shift from capital light to capital intensive.
In the 1990's capital intensive business fucked this up but at least had a track record. Why do we think those with no track record at all are going to be successful stewards of capital investment?
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@MaxAnderson @firstadopter Agreed. But what is the justification for a 45x PE. Not going to blow up the balance sheet.
Like getting the lottery just because you didn't kill your family.
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@firstadopter One of them is going to blow a gigantic hole in their financials with AI capex and the other isn’t?
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It is probably the first time in the history of humanity that Walmart trades at 45 times forward P/E while Amazon trades at 21 times.
What is happening!
tae kim@firstadopter
Walmart is trading at double the forward P/E of Amazon
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You want to know where we are in the credit cycle?
A prison food company just issued CCC bonds to pay a dividend to its PE sponsor.
That's where.
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@Theo_Nkonki @ferialhaffajee Simply incompetence, corruption and indolence stemming from @myanc and cadre deployment. Endemic nationally.
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@ferialhaffajee I’m happy to chat with you should you need further clarification.
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Joburg. There’s going to be an inter-governmental WATER WAR ROOM to deal with the city’s water crisis. This joins the BOMB SQUAD and the HIGH IMPACT SERVICE DELIVERY UNITS and the PRESIDENTIAL WORKING GROUP ON JOBURG. You see the pattern here? They all don’t know WTF they doing.
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PEs have gone up alot on mega caps
but $WMT and $COST are becoming something else
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What should be the focus of President Ramaphosa’s SONA this year?
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Sounds like a great business and business model!
I look forward to the IPO!
Elon Musk@elonmusk
Mars will start in 5 or 6 years, so will be done in parallel with the Moon, but the Moon will be the initial focus
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@davideborall Not quite. Only about a quarter of their total sale of #WBC will be used in the RMH transaction. Not so?
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Mystery solved on reasons for WeBuyCars founder sales two weeks ago.
$JSEWBC
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@Katzelebaroiges @Citrini7 Like WMT, COST isn't playing dead either
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@Citrini7 healthy market, when NVDAs like +8%, WMTs at 40-50x PEs… are you kidding? )
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