jucojames

@JamDoeNuts I don't spend any time pro-actively profiling managers: only once they are hired. If he does not depart after the season and a "team player" hired, then the legacy dynamics may drive an inflection point like what happened with Foley and Hibs, but suspect Bloom will get his way.

@jucojames @jucojames I'm curious to know your take on McInnes and a Manager you think is more suited / sourced through that model

How well have Hearts done this season so far and how might Tony Bloom think about performance attribution of Derek McInnes? Let us assume that Bloom and his analytics people are high functioning in the domain of performance attribution? Here was his August 3rd comment:

@JamDoeNuts He's a poor fit for the operating model culturally, IMO. Was skeptical when he was hired that he would buy into the operating model and had stated publicly at hire 2-early signals would be if he pushed to resign Shankland and wanted Gordon as #1 entering season...both happened.

@JamDoeNuts Have 25+ years experience with analytics and about 7 messing about with football-related...which is much less complicated than the former. Dove into USG last winter when Bloom to Hearts seemed likely. Initial analysis available in linked piece in main thread above.

@jucojames How long have you studied the Model ? @jucojames I am only in the door on it It's always good to get corrected or put in the right mode, your points are spot on

@JamDoeNuts There is widespread lack of understanding of what "analytics" means- ultimately people & culture are paramount in use of tools to make smarter decisions. Have no doubt JA's models flagged the likes of Del and Robinson due to the dumb constraints Hearts' legacy culture imposed.

@jucojames Add I have never been convinced Del was a Jamestown choice

@JamDoeNuts My disagreement is with your first response. What Bloom and his people value is head coaches that get with the program and aren't know-it-all Alex Ferguson wannabes. x.com/JamDoeNuts/sta…

@jucojames Its still based on facts, in was intentional, no one said it wasn't, it was in agreement with you

@JamDoeNuts Your characterization of Hearts as a structural underdog vis a vis USG is inaccurate, though seemingly a widespread consensus after 40 years of largely being irrelevant: it's only human. That is the mess Bloom and his people are having to deal with culturally. Del a manifestation

@jucojames USG hire elasticity. Hearts chose a one mode coach even with a top3 wage bill and top 3 NPxG. That’s the whole point.

@JamDoeNuts They wouldn't hire him because their leadership wouldn't be dumb and impose the handcuffs that Hearts' did after Critchley. Hearts were/are FAR better positioned competitively in Scotland than what USG were entering 2021-2022. Had 3rd highest NPxG and big wage bill last season.

@jucojames Hearts are getting the best version of McInnes because they are structurally an underdog in Scotland. USG would not hire him because they need a manager who can both increase and decrease entropy depending on opponent quality.

@jasper28085554 @Sam_LWR A simple examination of USG's game model and player utilization over their ascent to Belgian top flight offers a clear schematic for what is supposed to be happening, IMO. McInnes' hubris on deploying his preferences vs just following the plan is hilarious. 4-4-2 with "width"!

@Sam_LWR @jucojames Again, that’s why we have been successful and it’s Mcinnes way. Think idea was to get him in finish 3rd be consistent and steady. Then move on to next level. I sound like I’m against the manager, I am not as he’s done a brilliant job. However I don’t think it’s long term plan

@JamDoeNuts And the metrics you reference are standard 1st order ones that are ripe for outcome bias and precisely the kind of heuristic Bloom has made hundreds of millions betting against.

@jucojames 1st in the Premiership, 20‑7‑5 record, 67 points, +28 goal difference. We average 2.09 points per game, with a 12‑4‑0 home record and a 8‑3‑5 away record. Scored 1.72 goals and concede 0.84. Per game Last eight vs. 1.72 season average, defensive structure remains stable.

@JohnHeuston I am not that current on English leagues. From what I have read and hear on top 2 levels, investing is widespread but full embrace of placing it as foundational in culture and driving decisions remains uncommon- particularly outside of recruitment. Set pieces one area of focus.

@jucojames Yes, makes sense. Any guess at as ratio the percentage of English clubs fully embracing analytics > Scottish clubs?

@JohnHeuston There are limits to advantages when larger-resourced clubs like Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, etc embrace analytics as well. Been similar dynamics in NA sports as smaller early movers (Tampa in baseball) get supplanted by bigger when they move (Yankees and Dodgers as examples)

@jucojames Where do Brighton fit in the wider context? Are they successful max at 10th-ish and punching or are they underperforming in a Bloom world?

@JennyLee_Macro Make anything of just 2 of top 10 by weight confirming new high and none of top 6 comprising 50% confirming?

@J1mb0wW Probably and their insistence on "knows the league" reflective of that, but also how little understanding of how Bloom and his people operate. The "steady the ship" posture also displayed a fundamental misunderstanding and poor analysis of the prior season. 3rd in NPxG Diff

@jucojames Id think that McInnes was an appointment to steady the ship of the previous season. Not a chance they'd think Hearts would be in the position they are at this point. Bloom will look to bring a new guy in sooner rather than later especially if Rangers and Celtic sort out issues.

@J1mb0wW I suspect given his performance it will be his only chance unless the CEO and overall board pull a "Hibs" and blowup the Bloom opportunity. Had he been even a neutral rather than severely negative factor, then Hearts would likely be ahead comfortably, IMO.

@jucojames This will be his best chance of winning. Rangers and Celtic have dropped 62 points between them as it stands yet Hearts only sit 1 (and 3) points ahead. That wont be the case next season.

@ryan_carr3 @threadreaderapp The basis of Tony Bloom's gambling and football success has been to monetize the kind of reasoning you are using. I explicitly lay out the performance metrics that are barely better. Results often deviate from them...and drive bad gambling and football decisions.

@jucojames @threadreaderapp Barely better than Critchely is where it is harsh. Critchely got 52pts and finished in bottom 6. McInnes is likely going to finish high 70s (+20pt gain). I cant remember the last time hearts finished with 70+ pts, hardly did it in my lifetime. He deserves credit for that.

@ryan_carr3 @threadreaderapp What I lay out in the thread is the evidence that they are not challenging because of things he controls - it's mostly due to Rangers and Celtic being crap. The factors he does control to varying degrees are barely better than Critchley's tenure despite big talent influx.

@jucojames @threadreaderapp Do you not think this is harsh on McInnes? Its not like hes got a brand new 25 man squad from JA. He's taken guys like Halkett, Milne, Devlin, Banigme, Findlay, Shankland etc and got them challenging for the league.

@threadreaderapp unroll

However, by Bloom's own words and track record, along with his ambitions over the next decade, I am confident he will not have endless patience for what is clearly an underperforming and value destroying manager.