Julian Jessop

FYI, here are some of the figures most commonly used as "proof" that Brexit has caused "enormous harm" to the UK economy. Whenever someone chucks any of them at you, please feel free to reply with a link to this blog... 😉 julianhjessop.substack.com/p/explainer-de…

@Frances_Coppola No problem, it's too hot to think, let alone work!

@julianHjessop It's late, and I'm fending off MMT trolls... I'll send you a considered answer tomorrow if that's ok.

I don't agree with Julian on this, but this is a well-reasoned piece.

@peterszanto Thanks Peter 🙂

An informative article by the brilliant @julianHjessop Why it would be wrong to equalise capital gains tax and income tax @julianhjessop/note/p-198874114?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=3zeefu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@julianhjessop…

Given supermarkets’ razor-thin profit margins this may be absolutely the worst idea for nationalisation in a very crowded field.

📢 new blog post ✍️ "Why it would be wrong to equalise capital gains tax and income tax" julianhjessop.substack.com/p/why-it-would…

A land value tax as a replacement to stamp duty and council tax would be one of the more growth-enhancing things any government could introduce. Done badly it would be a disaster. #deliveryispolicy

Surprised more people haven't picked up on this important detail in today's GfK survey, but few bother to read past the headlines... 👇

@DavidDavisMP It's also so out of touch. I talk politics with people from all walks of life (today, my dentist and an uber driver) and Kemi seems universally popular...

I've just read an extraordinary piece by Lee Cain, former Director of Communications to Boris Johnson, in Conservative Home today. Unfortunately, thinking in politics these days is based on the opinion polls of the day. We often forget that the only poll that matters is the one three years from now. When Boris left office, he left a Conservative Party that nearly 70 per cent of the public thought was untrustworthy and a similar proportion felt was incompetent. This is the mindset that Kemi now has to change. Condemning and attacking her strategy halfway through does nothing to help that.

@BBCPropaganda I'll plead typos... 😞

@julianHjessop **grammar nazi mode on** Why is 'spending' using the plural 'were'? 'Revenues', too. But borrowing is singular? My CSE English qualification says that if it has one number it is a collective noun and one thing **grammar nazi mode off**

A bad start to the FY for the public finances: the UK government borrowed £4.9bn (or 25%) more in April than in the same month a year ago. Spending were up £7.6bn, revenues up just £2.7bn. (Remember borrowing only fell last year because of a large increase in the tax burden...)

This is a combination of the sensible, the unwise, and the dangerous. The end of active QT seems eminently sensible and would likely be absorbed in a sanguine fashion. The BoE’s divestment path is now faster than comparable CBs, after a period of parallel divestment rates. Greater share of holding assets to maturity reduces HMT indemnity payments. The unwise would be the end of linkers, surely any rational investor would simply conclude that there is now more of an incentive for the UK govt to generate inflation, and apply a higher inflation premium on regular gilts. The dangerous would be to mandate pension funds to buy gilts to finance a nationalisation program. The fiduciary duty debate that overshadowed the recent pension schemes bill would surely ride again big time, and undermine trust in pensions. By all means incentivise certain asset ownership - including Gilts - through the existing tax relief system. Albeit remaining cautious of crowding out more productive capital allocation. Not a program that is a golden bullet for bond market worries in my view.

"It's an ill wind..." 😉

@RobHughes4 See points 1️⃣, 2️⃣....

@julianHjessop So what would you blame it on?

ICYMI, some EU fans are now comparing the UK's post-Brexit performance against the Netherlands, and you can see why they would want to based on the chart below. But the Netherlands is not a good benchmark, for many reasons. In particular: 1⃣ the UK economy was hit much harder by Covid, with more long-term scarring 2⃣ Dutch energy prices (especially the cost of industrial electricity) are relatively low 3⃣ Dutch government debt is much lower (about 44% of GDP), creating more fiscal space 4⃣ the Netherlands benefits from the "Rotterdam effect", which the UK could never replicate 5⃣ Dutch GDP statistics are distorted by the activities of multinationals (not to the same extent as Ireland, but for similar reasons) 6⃣ the Netherlands has a more competitive tax system, especially for corporate dividends and expats 7⃣ the Dutch have kept minimum wages at a sensible level and avoided a large increase in labour market regulation, which has helped to keep unemployment low... I could go on but life is, of course, much simpler if you just blame everything on Brexit... 😉

@Jztujj Please don't rely on AI for economic data (though one of the sources cited there is very good... 😉)

@julianHjessop What about France ?

ps. chapter and verse from the OBR here... obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploa…

@ScotsForLeaveEU @DCBMEP Yes, odd that some non-economists are happy to post about the Dutch trade stats without being aware of this key fact, though I wanted to lead my list with some of the non-Brexit factors that have *changed* since the vote to leave the EU... 🤓

@julianHjessop @DCBMEP We would list the Rotterdam Effect first. It counts for a huge weight in the export stats. It is also very important that the wider public should be aware of this.

@tomhfh @hwallop Original source here... 🤓 x.com/iealondon/stat…

Extraordinary stats via @hwallop over on LinkedIn: "On average, people said pubs make a profit margin of 40%. Last year, JD Wetherspoon made 3.8 per cent. They thought supermarkets made 50% profit margins. Tesco’s margin last year was 4.3%, the highest in the industry. Aldi and Lidl run at 0.7%, according to the UK competition watchdog."

@0YqaXEbYlcgeLZG I know what you mean, but I'm using "borrowing" here in the usual sense of the difference between spending and income in a given period, rather than the accumulated stock of "debt", which did indeed rise further last year... 🤓

@julianHjessop Whilst I realise the last sentence is standard phrasing, it is misleading. Borrowing didn't fall last year, of course. It's just that we added less than normal to our national debt; only £129 billion (!!!). The UK's national debt is just under 3 trillion pounds. 50 grand each.