Julius Subovic

One thing there is no shortage of is frost this month in Slovakia. This morning even thought just after midnight cloud came we got below -10°C. Looking at short range it will be no problem reaching -10°C in May.

Cold april morning with low of -15.5°C. Still a couple of degrees away from record low in april.

Just few hours after sunset its already -11°C at my Karst frost hollow station. You would struggle to get that low all winter here in the town in Rožňava - Slovakia even under snow cover.

@SoltysiakKamil @wrighthydromet @tim_dunkerton @MeteoprognozaPL Na Slovensku, v Slovenskom raji

@JuliusSubovic @wrighthydromet @tim_dunkerton @MeteoprognozaPL Gdzie ta "velka polana" w Czechach czy na Słowacji?

What a January spell its Been. Not even 6PM and below -25°C.

Dear Twitter followers and weather friends, My daughter Isabella needs ongoing therapy to grow stronger and happier. Every little help matters. If you can, please support her journey: 4fund.com/sk/9r6g9j⁠� 🙏 #SupportIsabella #MentalHealthMatters

Data from website "Bez Počasia" showing some station with about 1 hour! of sunshine with dull frost free month it is the most desperate december so far since my Lifetime in Slovakia. So much for seasonal models december early cold La Nina potential.

@JanJasenka Vcera sa vyfarbili s tými dymovnicami a 20 minút sa nehralo. Nechápem,ako to oni môžu doniesť na štadión,keď ty musíš jednu dvojdecovu fľašku vyhodiť pri vstupe pri SBS. Niečo je prehnite s celým futbalovom v prospech Slovanu.

Pre #skslovan bude tento rok najväčší súper znovu len Slovan. Pretože jeho konkurenti sú takisto v súboji len samy so sebou. Po jesennej časti by som si nebol pomyslel, že #mskzilina bude tak nutne potrebovať zimnú prestávku. Nuž… Slovan nemá kto dostať pod tlak ⚽️🇸🇰 #nikéliga

Very quiet when seasonal model updates like this from ECMWF. With shockingly mild first 20 days of December and to follow up anomalies like this,looking very likely that we will again be attacking some of the mildest winters in central Europe.

@judah47 You Can have 75 stratospheric warmings in a month, off th the scale MJO 6-7-8, weak LA Nina, yet the pressure pattern in Europe = like Super Nino/Super Nina or MJO in circle of death and zonal winds 10hPa 50ms. always Euro high + west based -NAO or just straight high pressure

The weather pattern is in “rinse, lather, repeat” mode or in #PolarVortex (PV) parlance, one good stretch deserves another. IMO next PV stretch keeps cold train coming in Eastern US up to the holidays. Also first ever N Hemisphere snowfall forecast in blog published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…

The cool october month 2025 in Slovakia is ending with a bang. Currently at Štrbské pleso 🌨️🌨️🌨️

@WorldClimateSvc Lol, all 4 mentioned maps have about same percentage of mild winters in Slovakia,as if we are imune to these climate drivers. Better show average height anomalies then 2m temps to see trends as appart from western Europe inversion elsewhere effect average temps.

A negative QBO phase always lifts hopes for mid-latitude winter cold enthusiasts, owing to its influence on the stratospheric PV. But the QBO's links to surface weather are not simple. Perhaps surprisingly, during La Niña a -QBO is warmer than a +QBO in early winter in N Europe

Maybe Ural high developing, looks unfavorable for early cold but better cards later? Any thoughts?

If we get stuck in Phase 5 in November its not such a bad start.

@Superchri90 Tropical convection in MC moving through phases 4 to 6 is actually very good for early cold. -AAM early winter/late autumn most often bring early snow in Central Europe. However for this pattern we tend to pay price in Januáru,because its not best for heat flux.

5/5 However, it seems that around November, tropical convection, although still very weak and uncertain, will slowly move towards the MC, returning to eastward propagation with a possible increase in AAM Unfortunately, a -ENSO and a -QBO with a solar max tend to strengthen the PV

1/5 After the cold weather of recent days in Eastern Europe, temperatures will rise again. MJO still propagating westward towards phases 8/1 in the next few days, but there could be some news towards the end of the month!

Evening in Košice,amazing city centre. #slovakia #kosice

@WorldClimateSvc Why there is such poor NAO correlation with 1 month lead time for október,yet very good 5 month lead time for February. Because so many "default" + NAO februaries in recent years?

Looking at September AO/NAO forecasts for winter, the skill of the Copernicus multi-model *seems* to have improved a bit since last year (model upgrades). However, with only 24 hindcast years, and very low skill levels, this might be random chance (sampling variability)... 1/2

15th day with frost this May at my Slovak karst station. See doline behind my mountain bike after servicing the station.

We have destroyed absolute May minimum with -13.8°C today at Polana station in Slovakia. Amazing work with our team of karst cold pool research.

Yet another stunning morning with -7.5°C at our Polana station in Slovak paradise.