Justin Diamond 🌐♟🪗

A crazy mental trick is to map complex concepts onto regions the brain is “primed” for (Chernoff). The most hilarious example I’ve seen is…multivariate portfolio data on cartoon fish. Analysts would thus look for the "weird fish" in the aquarium.

Secretary Rubio rocking the Nike Tech ‘Venezuela’ on Air Force One! 😂

If you work for a living, your share of GDP has never been lower If you hoard capital for a living, your share of GDP has never been higher

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Biden Admin alums like Jake Sullivan continue to argue that giving more weapons, more quickly, such as ATACMS, wouldn't have made a difference. A talking point debunked by General Cavoli. Panetta is correct and Sullivan is wrong, unsurprisingly.

A 25 year old just turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months. Here’s exactly what he bought. Leopold Aschenbrenner got fired from OpenAI in April 2024. He spent the next few months writing a 165-page thesis predicting AGI by 2027. Then he launched a fund and put his money where his thesis was. He bought zero Nvidia. Zero Microsoft. Zero Google. Zero Amazon. He bought what AI actually runs on. Bloom Energy (BE), power infrastructure for data centers. Up 1,422% in one year. Lumentum (LITE), optical components that move data between chips. Up 1,331%. Sandisk (SNDK), storage. Up 3,130%. CoreWeave (CRWV), GPU cloud infrastructure. Up 166%. Iris Energy (IREN), AI computing and data centers. Up 583%. The thesis was simple: every AI company needs energy, bandwidth, storage, and compute. Nobody was buying those. Everyone was buying the AI companies themselves. He was right. His fund now manages $6 billion. Backed by Patrick and John Collison of Stripe and former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman. I’m adding this to my watchlist. Every time he files a new 13F, we will break it down here. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss the alert, this is VERY important. Many people will wish they followed us sooner.

Natasha at JPM is publishing some bangers. Good shit Natasha. 👏

PRESIDENT TRUMP: The U.S. blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz has been 100% foolproof. Nobody is going to play games. We have the greatest military in the world, nobody else is even close. 💪

The Oval Office has changed a bit since 1970.

On April 12, we published a piece with a section titled, “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” Here’s what I wrote: Over the weekend, I had a subscriber express his frustration to me: “How can the oil market be so complacent?” Let me answer that question by first saying this: I’ve been neck deep in the oil market for the last 11 years. And oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint. I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it. Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in. Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing: Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl. The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US time to navigate the Iranian conflict without the oil market blowing up. It was also the same reason why at the beginning of the conflict, I wrote a piece titled, “Why Aren’t Oil Prices At $100?” But fast forwarding 6-weeks later, the facts have changed. The conflict is ongoing, and that onshore cushion you are seeing in storage is nothing but a mirage. Even if the conflict ends this very second and everything returns to normal, that oil inventory is gone. Vanished. No more. In essence, the oil market really should be pricing forward balances as if we are already near 7.6 billion bbls, but it’s not, and this creates the biggest mispricing trade since the COVID lockdown (short oil) trade. Oil traders, the physical guys, lack both the means and capabilities to drive financial prices higher. Financial markets are exponentially larger than the physical side, but there’s one quirk: expiry. As the futures market approaches expiry, people who continue to hold the contracts are obligated to deliver the goods (literally). This mechanism will be tested first at the May WTI expiry, where the physical market is already quoted at a +$20 premium to financial prices. It will be tested again in the Brent expiry at the end of the month. What will happen is that as we get closer to the expiry, market participants who are short have to cover because there’s no way in hell they can deliver the goods physically. We are literally going to run out of available commercial crude storage. This will force the prompt month higher, which will suck in financial flows into the June contracts. This inflection point will shock market participants awake. This is one of the main reasons why I’ve remained so calm over the past few weeks. The math is what it is. The Trump administration can jawbone oil prices all they want. Axios can publish whatever headlines it wants, but the reality will be swift and vicious. If you do not have the means to deliver the goods, you have to cover.

Everyone on earth takes a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press? BE HONEST.