KOBESYSTEM143

#Bitcoin has made it hard for me to justify investing in any stocks at current prices. Everything else seems too risky when compared to BTC, a perfect form of money with a 68% 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). In my mind, any potential stock would have to outperform Bitcoin significantly enough to make sense of taking on the risk of owning the stock. Unlike #Bitcoin, a share of stock represents partial ownership in an underlying business. Businesses are subject to various risks such as competitive risks, supply chain risks, legal/political risks, and macroeconomic risks, just to name a few. All of these risks are constantly looming and can materially damage or completely destroy a business. 1. Competitive risk: Businesses are constantly threatened by competitors or new entrants into the market who will try to steal their customers or profit margin. #Bitcoin does not face threats from competitors. The invention of digital scarcity (Bitcoin) can only happen once. Over 20,000 other "cryptos" have tried and failed to replace it. Plus, being the largest cryptoasset, it has the strongest network effects and liquidity, making it even harder to be replaced by a competitor. 2. Supply-chain risk: Businesses constantly face risks from their supply chain: a key supplier may go out of business, raise prices, or key supply routes may be disrupted, as we've seen recently in the Red Sea. The biggest inputs into the BTC supply chain are electricity and commodity computer hardware, both of which are abundant and easily found throughout the world. The network is also decentralized, so if the supply of electricity or computer hardware is disrupted in any jurisdiction, it does not affect the running of the network. 3. Legal/political risks Businesses are subject to various legal and political risks. For example, a business can get sued for a substantial amount of money, or a government may decide to shut down a business because of COVID. #Bitcoin is decentralized, so it is impossible to take legal action to harm the network. Laws can only be created that make it harder for citizens within a particular jurisdiction to use Bitcoin, but as we have seen in examples like China, these laws don't work. 4. Macro economic risks Any recession or depression can materially harm or even bankrupt a business. Macro forces are completely out of the control of any business owner but may still impact them. #Bitcoin is not a company, and as such, it is not impacted by the cyclical and often unpredictable economy. The fundamentals of the network do not change whether we find ourselves in a depression or a booming economic period. Back to the main point. Bitcoin's current 5-year CAGR is 68%, and I can see it continuing at that pace for at least 5 more years with much less risk than any stock I could potentially own. As BTC matures, I can see the growth settling to a steady 14%ish, as @saylor estimates. But at today's BTC prices, the risks of owning stocks make them a tough buy. I ask myself: 1. Will that stock outperform Bitcoin over the next 5 years, possibly if I pick the right one, but probably not. 2. Will it outperform Bitcoin enough to justify taking on the extra risk associated with owning a business? Definitely not. In the long term, the price of stocks will have to be adjusted sharply down to make them attractive for BTC-minded people to buy.

Global currencies against the U.S. dollar over the last 10 years: 🇻🇪: -99.9% 🇦🇷: -98.3% 🇹🇷: -92.6% 🇷🇺: -66.7% 🇧🇷: -55.4% #Bitcoin : +21,369% 🚀

"Anybody who has zero #Bitcoin is really missing the most asymmetric bet that I have ever seen." - Lawrence Lepard

Never trust exchanges. Non zero chance #BTC ETF holders get hurt someday too. Self custody your #Bitcoin

It’s riskier to sit in cash than it is to hold #Bitcoin

What do all these major reserve currencies have in common? #BITCOIN

My thinking has always been that the #Bitcoin ETF’s will mean a 1% allocation to the asset by its providers. To put it into perspective, for just BlackRock & Fidelity. A 1% #Bitcoin buy of total assets: BlackRock @ 1% = $100bn buy. Fidelity @ 1% = $130bn This is a combined net cash in-flow of $230bn. Into #Bitcoin over maybe 1.5-2 cycles. BTW - you can forget about them allocating to “crypto”. The SEC took care of that garbage with enough regulatory questioning. ETH ETF is also not coming in 2024. So $230bn net inflow. This is just a 1% allocation to #Bitcoin from TWO of the top 5 allocators. And this is at TODAYS total assets not tomorrow’s inflated values. Using the BofA Bull Market Multiple (1:118), which I believe climbs as #Bitcoin comes off exchanges. You’re looking at a total market cap of $27.1Trillion. And with fully issued supply - discounting lost coins. That’s a price of $1.29m per #Bitcoin. This is ONLY the ETF “buy funnel”. I’m not including: - Retail/Corporate/Governmental Self Custody. - Derivative speculators. - A simple shift of 1% allocation to 2%. - New entrants like Charles Schwab which would add another $90bn to this buying demand. This is so much cash coming into an asset that has an absolute finality of supply and has a CURRENT supply of say 1.8m. With HODL rate’s climbing as the price goes up. Please, stop fucking around and get to your ONE #Bitcoin. At minimum.

Anyone born after 1971 has never experienced a life where housing is seen purely as shelter. In 1971, Richard Nixon severed the link between the US dollar and gold. Since then, the US dollar has been broken as a store of value. #Realestate has replaced the dollar as a long-term store of value in many developed countries. Prices of houses have skyrocketed as more investors see them as a financial product. #Bitcoin    fixes this by absorbing demand from real estate as a long-term savings vehicle. When real estate investors understand that #BTC    is a digital asset that's a much better store of value than physical real estate, we will see a fire sale in the real estate market. Bitcoin is better than real estate for your long-term savings: - No large upfront financial cost - No maintenance & repairs - No risk of natural disaster - No need for an inspector - No dealing with tenants - No need to collect rent - No need for insurance - No realtors or lawyers - No liquidity issues - No property taxes - No interest (halal) - No location risk - No censorship With Bitcoin: - You can sell small chunks of your holdings instead of having to sell all or none - You can buy or sell any time (the market is always open) - You can buy or sell in seconds rather than months or years - Your market to buy and sell is global

The Truth About Bitcoin: A Comprehensive Thread Debunking Common Myths This last week has revealed that despite growing institutional acceptance, Bitcoin remains highly misunderstood: - Jamie Dimon claims Satoshi controls Bitcoin - Vanguard claims bitcoin is too volatile and uninvestable - UBS claims Bitcoin has no real world applications In this thread, I revisit Bitcoin's most common misconceptions. We are still early.

Why real estate is trending towards zero in #Bitcoin... Watch me address this point: youtu.be/14f76nQJLKI

#Bitcoin takes a long time to learn. It's a much bigger idea than what the uninitiated think it is. There are ton of books on the subject. I haven't read them all, but here is a list of the best ones that I have read, in order that I would recommend reading them. 1. The Bitcoin Standard I would recommend this as the first book for learning about Bitcoin. It details the history of money, and why Bitcoin is the next technological leap for money and savings technology. This book was very foundational for my understanding of #Bitcoin. 2. Broken Money This book is like ‘The Bitcoin Standard’ on steroids. I would recommend it to someone seeking to understand how the financial system and money work as a whole. It serves as a great bridge for those interested in finance in general but are still skeptical about Bitcoin. At 538 pages, it is not a short read, but it is worth it. 3. Check Your Financial Privilege This book examines Bitcoin from the perspective of Human rights. Bitcoin is a life saving tool for many people around the world who live under financial repression. This book goes into detail about how that is playing out in several parts of the world. 4. Layered money This one goes into more detail about how the banking/money system works as a whole. The later part of the book provides reasons for why something like Bitcoin is a viable alternative to the current monetary system.

Jack: “Ed, how many people in the world have to deal with fiat debasement?” Ed: “I’ll let you answer that, Jack.” Jack: “8 billion. All of us! Everybody is subject to a fiat currency that’s devaluing.”

#Bitcoin is the most loved and hated, desired and detested, revered and feared asset in history. All it does is keep a very secure ledger of who owned what and when.