KP
102 posts
@dannyle1022 im actually very curious if you will be right, my indicators are telling me worst case is 280s from here but if u end up being right and we see 240s that would be impressive
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it may just be following #2, but instead of a deep retracement, it did a shallow one.
The 4th wave -248 rule applies more rigorously to impulses. When it comes to zigzags like this, it can bypass it. but sooner or later, the chicken will come home to roost.
Partner Elijah@Partner_Elijah
@dannyle1022 Trying to reconcile current price action with these two scenarios, seeing which one is playing out, but I can't see it. Current move up seems based on call buying. Where do you think we top before heading to $248? You mentioned 320 IIRC? Tnx
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@dannyle1022 @baggholding Should go down to 248 and see if it goes up afterwards. If it breaks down, see 210.
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Technically, the 2nd scenario is still alive. If it is an ending diagonal, the only change that occurred was it'd be an expanding diagonal.
Regardless, I still see 10% downside from here before it can go up again. $TSLA
Danny Le@dannyle1022
$TSLA this bounce is not clean, despite today's god candle 1st scenario: a touch ofr 290-300 before pulling back to 220. probably on the back of a weak ER and / or more macro bad news. Then run up into the June / July timeframe 2nd scenario: slow grind in a rising wedge.
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Sold January 2027 200 calls. NFA. $TSLA
Danny Le@dannyle1022
the small 5th is extended. a lil more $TSLA
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@dannyle1022 @nepitrades420 Kind of have to thank these haters to make Danny active again 😂😂
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once it has topped out at 290 then we start looking at fib projection using the 1st leg from 488 to 212 as the template.
the 3 most common targets are: 0.618 at 212 (triple bottom), 0.382 at 175 (100 MEMA) and 0 at 128.
since TSLA is seasonally strong in the 2nd half of the year, we only have 2 months for the rejection off of 290 to run its course. safe to say 128 is out of the question. That leaves 212 and 175.
so whats it gonna be? $TSLA
Danny Le@dannyle1022
Charting a dead cat is very hard. You have to wait till enough pieces have fallen in place. then you can look at their structure and see which pattern is the most fitting. When you have a Red retracement going all the way back to the low, even breaking the beginjing of green rectangle, most likely its either ax expanded flat or a double 3. Ax expanded flat requires yellow rectangle to be clean, which I said it wasnt on the day off. Therefore, right now the most logical pattern left is a double 3. the difference is this: while an expanded flat is unpredictable and can bounce much higher, a double 3 is reliable as a sideway pattern. Thats why right now im expecting this to top out around 290 again.
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@dannyle1022 🤣🤣 I did read it a couple times to make sure I didn't misunderstand. Don't wanna waste ur time 🤣
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cant believe Im having to spell this out. again.
in case you missed the "my opinion is yesterday was it" calling bottom on Mondays low again.
have you heard people say something like this? "a nuclear war would be so bad for everyone in it, hence I think it wont happen"
this chart was that nuclear war I clearly said wouldnt happen.
listen, I appreciate your following but I have a very short fuse. please read and if you get confused, read again.
Danny Le@dannyle1022
my mentor and I are seeing the same thing. If it was weak today, my read would be its going to go lower into the 200s-190s and then shoot up, as laid out in my Sunday post. it shot up today, so 2 scenarios: yesterday was it, or yesterday was just the 1st wave. my opinion is yesterday was it. if it was just the 1st, 3rd wave will begin shortly and I just dont see ER causing such a bad drop. $TSLA
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@dannyle1022 @Partner_Elijah Wow...it's a big call I have never heard of from you. So it's pretty bearish in the long term. You would open any options positions? Thanks as always.
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@KP63281630 @Partner_Elijah Ill probably sell a big chunk of my core shares
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$TSLA im still a bull on the company, but the charts (itself and indices) are ugly and this is much bigger than most people alive have seen. so believe in RT and bots all you want. no stocks escape this down turn.
for years market has been treated like a casino. that has a cost. I dint think the SPAC and NFT bust was the end of it. The entire market will go.
Believe in AI all you want. NVDA still looks like it will go to 40 eventually.
In the year 2000, people bought like retards thinking the internet was going to change the world.
They were right
They still got blown up before the internet revolution happened
Now, AI is going to change the world. but seems 25 years were long enough for people to forget the lesson.
This is my opinion only. take care of your own money.
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@dannyle1022 @Partner_Elijah You gonna sell your long term holding stock? Or just the trading part? Thanks.
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@Partner_Elijah its possible. fair chance. but I wont wait that long
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@dannyle1022 @Mike_Swigs So you don't think it will get to 175 before June? Thanks.
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4 DTE
At its worst this was like -200k. $TSLA
Danny Le@dannyle1022
Im long +430C -440C -250P exp April $TSLA
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@dannyle1022 Wow...you are still holding them. Are you going to open other options positions? Thanks.
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@dannyle1022 Hi Danny. What's your read now? It got rejected at 290 twice. The dead cat bounce is gone already? How low would it go? Thanks and good weekend.
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top of the day 291.
Big test here. Can we see a 5th?
KP@KP63281630
@dannyle1022 @optionsamurai1 May hit it tomorrow 😅
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most of what I do is just pattern recognition. Sometimes theres a pattern sometimes I just go radio silent for days because theres none. I think we keep bouncing for a while, not because the fundamentals are strong but because too many people shorted the hole. pain to those first, then drop later.
Danny Le@dannyle1022
This is pretty grim. $TSLA The weekly trend support is very vengeful. If stock can bounce of it, it will go hard. If it breaks it, it will go at least a distance equal to the distance between the top and the trend support. So, right now that's about 220. See recent examples: Monthly trend support sits at 210 I'm still holding my short 240Ps. It's within my pain tolerance. Very little incentive to keep posting. I don't gain as many followers as those permabull accounts. I can't even do a subscription. What a way to run business @elonmusk
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@dannyle1022 @gthien0411 Hi Danny, may I know when will you 240 or 250 puts expire? Thanks.
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This is pretty grim. $TSLA
The weekly trend support is very vengeful. If stock can bounce of it, it will go hard. If it breaks it, it will go at least a distance equal to the distance between the top and the trend support. So, right now that's about 220.
See recent examples:
Monthly trend support sits at 210
I'm still holding my short 240Ps. It's within my pain tolerance.
Very little incentive to keep posting. I don't gain as many followers as those permabull accounts. I can't even do a subscription. What a way to run business @elonmusk
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@dannyle1022 but again Danny, you made the dame correct call again. Touch 350 and reverse...🫨🫨
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Lets see. At this point I only expect a bounce to 440 at first. New ATHs will have to wait
Danny Le@dannyle1022
what it can do is maybe a gap down to sub 360, throwing under the wedge - often but not guaranteed - and at the same time satisfy my 350 target, then big reversal same day.
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I started at my new job. will try to update 2nite. nothing really changed, tho. sideway this week
sebastien bourdon@sebastienbourd2
@dannyle1022 @Mike_Swigs Hi Danny, any update on tesla would be greatly appreciated!
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