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Trend Follower 📈
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Trend Follower 📈
@KPTheTrader
Dumb trend follower. Know-nothing profitable trader. Reinforcement Learning with Market Feedback. Follower of all-knowing entity: The Market.
Financial Freedom Katılım Mart 2018
363 Takip Edilen1.1K Takipçiler
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"Your probabilities of success are quite low when the market trend is going against you." – Stan Weinstein
"Your probabilities of success are quite high when you trade in the direction of the trend (and don't interfere)." – Nick Schmidt
Za@ZaStocks
Bull markets gonna bull market ya know.
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You don’t become extremely wealthy in the market punching in 50-60 trades a month in the name of swing trading.
Everyone wants fast money from the markets.
Reality is that life changing money usually comes from sitting through a big move with size.
The real money is made in sitting through the trade for weeks and months. Not in over analyzing movement of price every day and taking 3-4% profit and moving to next one.
Most traders don’t have a bad strategy. They just don’t have the patience to hold winners.
Learn to sit on your hands when you’re right.
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After a strong run, you inevitably get caught with a few newer positions with no cushion that start eating into your bigger winners.
This is where the real psychological test begins.
🛡️ Risk-First: Protecting capital at all costs.
🚀 Trend-Following: Giving the trade room for the bigger move.
The answer is usually somewhere in the middle. Trimming your big winners to protect the portfolio is frustrating if they keep ripping without you, but managing the downside is what keeps you in the game long-term.
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The market loves distractions.
Past month it was war.
This week it’s yields.
Next week it’ll be macro.
Then bonds.
Then recession headlines.
At the end of the day, we trade equities.
Price action, earnings, leadership, accumulation, and trends matter far more than reacting to every macro headline on X.
Too much noise destroys focus and conviction.
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There’s always going to be another trade.
When I identify a great setup + narrative on a stock but miss it I don’t care.
If this happens to you it shouldn’t bother you either.
Why?
Because if anything it should give you confidence knowing you identified the setup + narrative correctly and know you’ll be able to do it again.
The market is presenting new opportunities every single week. If you think back 3-6 months and try to remember the trade you “missed” back then you probably won’t even remember it.
Become immune to fomo.
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"No, I don't want to 'learn fast', in any subject. I don't want shortcuts. If I don't enjoy the subject, I don't want to learn it; and if I enjoy it, I want to prolong the pleasure. I avoid what exam-takers do: I trade speed for depth."
@nntaleb
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"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
- Arthur C. Clarke
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I used to think trading was me vs Wall Street.
BUT, the majority of the time it was me vs:
- my inability to hold winners
- my urge to revenge trade
- my oversized positions
- my non-existent risk management
- my dopamine/gambling addiction
- my FOMO and need for instant gratification
- & the emotional stability of a caffeinated squirrel
The market is basically 1 giant psychological interrogation room disguised as candlestick charts.
I can sit here all day telling myself...
“I’m disciplined.”
“I’m patient.”
“I trust my system.”
Then one trade goes against me, and suddenly I’m dragging stops lower, averaging into losers, refreshing X for emotional confirmation, and bargaining with God over a semiconductor stock at 10:47am.
The longer I trade, the more I realize the market exposes who you really are once pressure enters the equation.
And if you don’t understand yourself first, the market eventually will... + unfortunately, the lessons are paid for in real money.
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🇺🇸 Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said it out loud:
Your kids will work 3.5 days a week. Live to 100. AI is going to cure cancer, stop car crashes, make new materials, save lives.
"Life will be better."
He's not a tech bro dreaming out loud. This man runs the money.
Video: @clashreport
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The more you simplify your trading process, the better off you’ll be.
There’s way too much information and too many indicators + tools out there nowadays.
Instead of trying to add new things to your process, try to remove things and simplify. The market is already difficult enough.
You don’t need 5 tools, 15 indicators, and 100 different data points to make a decision. Most of the time all that does is make you second guess yourself or freeze.
Price, volume, your simple thesis, key levels, and your risk management rules will tell you most of what you need to know.
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If your stop is b/e…then let it actually be breakeven.
Too many traders I see move to safety, see a little red candle, panic sell for a tiny gain, then watch the stock double over the next 2 weeks without them.
You are slowly training yourself to cut strength short the second emotions enter the picture.
...and that damage can compound quickly over time.
A good trade will often shake, retest, and test your conviction before expanding further. That’s normal price action.
If your risk is already removed, stop babysitting every tick and allow the trade enough room to prove you right.
Make the market take you out.
Not your own fear!
This is what's worked for me.
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75% of stocks follow the trend of the general market so in an uptrend if you're treating every pullback like the top you're statistically working against yourself every day
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I see traders all the time put > focus on lower TF precision while completely ignoring higher TF positioning.
They obsess over entries down to the penny...but fail to ask whether the stock is even sitting in a favorable higher TF structure to begin with.
In my experience, a mediocre daily setup inside a powerful weekly structure often outperforms a “perfect” daily setup sitting inside weak higher-timeframe conditions.
The weekly = the real institutional battle.
The daily = helps refine execution around larger ideas.
This is why I always start top-down:
- Weekly/monthly first.
- Daily second.
- Execution timeframe last.
That framework has helped me simplify trading so I don't end up micromanaging every candle on the lower timeframes.
This is what's worked for me!
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Relative strength is not simply a technical observation...it reflects persistent institutional demand + capital concentration.
Leadership is barely offering deep pullbacks because momentum and institutional participation remain so strong.
If you're constantly waiting for “perfect entries,” you will often end up watching these names continue trending higher without you.
The challenge becomes developing execution frameworks that allow participation without sacrificing risk control.
Get creative & build the toolbox!
iain@ohiain
Relative Strength FIRST, setup SECOND. Today is a great day to do your homework & train your eyes. And when I say “do your homework,” I mean asking a stupidly simple question: "How is a stock behaving relative to the market + relative to its sector/group?" That’s literally it. If the indices are weak and a stock is: - holding key levels +barely pulling back - tightening up + respecting EMAs - building higher lows intraday …that’s relative strength. But if the market is green and the stock still can’t hold pivots or keeps lagging against its sector, I lose interest very quickly. One of the best analogies I’ve ever heard for relative strength is the beach ball underwater. When $SPY + $QQQ are under pressure, my job is to study what refuses to break. The names holding structure while everything else bleeds are usually institutions showing their hand in favor... Those are the names I care about: 1) the stocks staying above moving averages 2) holding structured tight ranges 3) refusing to fully participate in market weakness Because once pressure lifts and the market stabilizes, those names usually don’t just “bounce,” but launch. That built-up pressure gets released all at once, just like the beach ball. Focus on leadership first. The setup matters, but the stock selection matters even more. A mediocre setup on a true leader will usually outperform a perfect setup on a weak stock. Study this concept deeply because once you train your eyes to recognize relative strength properly, it's a whole different ball game.
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Something I’ve done significantly better over the last 6 months is letting my winners actually work for me instead of rushing to lock profits the second I see green.
2 years ago, I would take profits way too early because psychologically it just feels good...sounds familiar, right?
Locking gains gives instant validation and certainty. But with this market recently, it's been very evident to me that some of the best trades require sitting through pullbacks, volatility, and unrealized P&L swings while the trend continues developing.
It takes time & the patience of a sloth to understand.
Ironically, the majority of my trades still end up being b/e or small losses. But the winners that I actually sit with now have started paying for everything else and then some...
It's a big psychological shift for me this cycle. I've never seen anything like this market.
Still learning every single day, but I now understand why so many great traders obsess over protecting downside while letting strength compound.
The answer was sitting in front of me all along.
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"Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present."
- Marcus Aurelius
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Going by the number of X posts and rightly so, on so many low hanging fruits around ease of doing business and attracting investments/reforms for both domestic, NRIs and foreigners, India should really consider having a small but focussed "attract investments" ministry.
No doubt this govt has done a lot of reforms for the main street, but may be the time has come now to focus on the investors and the capital that drives the main street.
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