Chris

53 posts

Chris

Chris

@CCivittolo

Katılım Mart 2023
71 Takip Edilen15 Takipçiler
Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@TheBetDesk Not sure. Would love to find out. I’m new to this, but have spent the last 5 years trading options and futures. What I’ve learned is that predictions and consensus don’t matter. Skill is confused with randomness. I think sports bettors suffer from this even more so.
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The Bet Desk
The Bet Desk@TheBetDesk·
@CCivittolo let me ask you, because I do agree.. What about a top down/bottom up consensus?
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The Bet Desk
The Bet Desk@TheBetDesk·
To the bettors that actually study statistics and look at stats on a day to day basis... I'd love to sit down, and watch how your process works.
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@PipsNBA Interesting topic. I’m new to this and I find it very difficult to quantify edge. I wonder if profitable long term bettors can even do it accurately.
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Cayden
Cayden@PlusEvStick·
💵July Update💵 @OddsJam's live arb tool is FEEDING 🟢+$769 yesterday 🟢+$13,218.29 so far in July (before today) Let's keep it rollin today🤘
Cayden tweet media
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@bettingedgedata @TheBetDesk New bettor here too. Honestly, the CLV conversation confuses the hell out of me. What about live bettors? They can surely make money. Is CLV relevant? What about player props? You often wait for a lineup to come out or risk a slip being voided. Is CLV relevant?
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BettingEdgeData
BettingEdgeData@bettingedgedata·
This is why I think CLV is overrated. A lot of the +CLV profit analysis is based on “if you had beaten the lines you would make money”. But here’s the key: the markets move to unpredictable news, so a lot of that analysis is based predicting injuries and the weather. It looks nice in theory but in practice isn’t replicable.
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The Bet Desk
The Bet Desk@TheBetDesk·
But guys, it was +EV Small sample size, I know. But this is consistent of every time I try to top-down bet. I get CLV, I make sure the line is moving/steaming, and I bet 1/4 Kelly. It must just be bad luck that every time I try I fail. Back to doing what I love, and that’s sinking my teeth into data/models to find edges.
The Bet Desk tweet media
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@chinamaniac I don’t know a lot so I’m probably out of my depth, but aren’t a lot of people making a decent living off player props alone on PMs like Kalshi?
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china
china@chinamaniac·
If your goal is to make money at gambling, just remember this -you can be the best coder -you can be the best modeler/ originator -you can be extremely talented But if you have no connections and can’t get money down none of these things matter
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@IIPatll Makes sense. Yeah, it might be a dumb idea, but the thought was to try to bet unders on batter hits when there’s good value, recognizing that there will be far more losses than wins but the wins provide a great asymmetry of risk.
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Pat 🧘‍♂️⚾️
@CCivittolo Over the years, I’ve generally seen there’s more value to be found on unders than overs. However, betting unders and not overs is limiting yourself to half the game. If there are overs worth betting (there are), then you don’t want to miss out on them
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@BarclayCard18 Other than part-time Novak, Fils and Jodar are honestly the only players worth watching. The rest of the top 30 is sad.
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Scott Barclay
Scott Barclay@BarclayCard18·
Crazy to think these last few months and next few months could've been and will still be an opportunity for someone to really announce themselves on the ATP Tour as a legitimate challenger to the top 2 (currently top 1) and yet we all know for a fact that nobody will. 😂
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@josemorgado Feels wide open. Would love Jodar to get there. Either way, at least we’re spared from Sinner obliterating Zverev in another final.
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José Morgado
José Morgado@josemorgado·
Ruud Khachanov Jodar Darderi Who is reaching the Rome final?
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@sixloveee If Alcaraz eases his way back and has some bumps, which seems likely, Sinner may not lose again. The top 25 is horrible. No one trustworthy or consistent, unless you give Zverev credit for being just good enough to play in semis or finals against Sinner only to get destroyed.
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6-0
6-0@sixloveee·
This has to be the worst top 4-10 I've ever seen on the ATP tour as of right now. Djok has played 3 matches since January and lost 2, Fritz is on holiday, Bublik not doing anything really, Medvedev on clay, FAA Shelton and De Minaur all flopping. Alcaraz is out for maybe 2 months
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@VolSignals I realized that I’m not smart enough to risk money because I’m attached to a macro view. Fool’s errand. I live my trading life 0 DTE at a time now.
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VolSignals
VolSignals@VolSignals·
If you're anchored to your opinion, better to stop trading there is no "normal" there just is and there isn't all I care about is transactions that net me money I can pontificate about the macro over drinks paid for by all the money made following the flows.
Hamed Soheili@h2soheili

@VolSignals If you think. Today SPX 7350 is normal, better to unfallow you

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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@timkawakami The problem is that the first year backups often turn into second or third year backups and then get cut.
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Tim Kawakami
Tim Kawakami@timkawakami·
As we discussed on the pod, 49ers just don't look at positions that way in the draft. They're fine with taking 1st-year backups at DL/WR/RB earlier than potential immediate starters at OG and S. If they take OG today, he'll have a better shot at starting than earlier picks.
JCornelio49@jcornelio_49

@timkawakami Waste of a pick - need a Safety and G in a much bigger way

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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@BarclayCard18 Withdrawal or mid-match retirement aside, it would actually be shocking to me if he loses again before Wimbledon. He’s that good and the rest of his competitors are that average. Novak is the only guy who has a chance to beat him.
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Scott Barclay
Scott Barclay@BarclayCard18·
The amount of pressure on the shoulders of Jannik Sinner heading into the French Open this year is going to be ridiculous. The final last year combined with the fact that nobody expects anyone else to win it this year AND he obviously wants to complete the career slam is all going to make it difficult to navigate for him mentally. He probably still wins it though. 😅
Scott Barclay tweet media
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@LombardiHimself Spot matters, value matters, and track record matters. If they love every WR and RB that they draft far higher than consensus, why do so many of them fail to see the field and get cut after a few years?
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David Lombardi
David Lombardi@LombardiHimself·
All 3 players 49ers have drafted... -Produced at big schools -Tested well athletically -Are disciplined workers (2 are sons of longtime Marines, other was a Curt Cignetti favorite with the nat'l champs) -Fit SF positions of need Specific pick spot won't matter if they're good
Mike Urtaza@urtazablue

Feels like the 49ers are just drafting their “sleepers”… way earlier than anyone expected. Almost like they looked at this class and said, “this draft kinda sucks—let’s just go get OUR guys.” That’s exactly why they kept trading back… stack picks, then reach for the players you actually believe in.

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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@josemorgado Hope this is something that doesn’t impact him long term, but certainly scary. Meanwhile, is it that big of a leap to think that Sinner could run the table from Madrid to Wimbledon? Who is beating him?
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@doc_mcgraw That custom 3-leg trade is interesting. Is the payoff graph similar to a broken wing butterfly?
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Doc aka Trader McGraw
Doc aka Trader McGraw@doc_mcgraw·
Demo Trades Done Live — "For Science" 🧪 TRADE 1 — 6495/6480 Put Vertical (4 contracts) 📥 Opened: 9:50:27a — 0.65 cr received → $260 collected 📤 Closed: 10:35:12a — 0.20 db paid → $80 to close ✅ Profit: $180 ⏱ Time in trade: ~45 minutes TRADE 2 — Custom 3-Leg Put Structure (6505/6515/6520) 📥 Opened: 9:50:29a — 1.10 cr received → $110 collected 📤 Closed: 10:46:52a — 0.35 db paid → $35 to close ✅ Profit: $75 ⏱ Time in trade: ~56 minutes COMBINED RESULT Gross credits collected: $370 Total debit to close: $115 🐐 Net profit: $255 — both trades closed well under max risk in under an hour The money isn't the point. The process is. Explained LIVE every AM and in Discord Chat for premium subscribers 🎥 Join me live at 8:30 AM ET — SPX prep and market structure breakdown: ▶️ @DocMcGraw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@DocMcGraw 🐦 x.com/doc_mcgraw QUANTUITION — Analytics + Edge from Experience. 🐐
Doc aka Trader McGraw tweet media
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@options_insight It has its pitfalls, but I’ve gravitated towards almost entirely 0 DTE verticals and/or flies, and continuing to trade micro futures intraday. I can’t remember the last time I had overnight risk. Long term portfolio is completely different, but I don’t get tactical there.
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
Take a step back. We’re not in a normal trading environment. The question isn’t whether you can make money this week. The real question is what your book looks like in a 20% crash. If you’re comfortable with that outcome, there may be nothing to do. If you’re not comfortable, you need to change the book. Raise cash. Add hedges. Because losing a little upside doesn’t matter. A large drawdown does.
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Chris
Chris@CCivittolo·
@options_insight Do you overlay any hedges or just live with the defined risk (which is admittedly small even if you take a full loss)?
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