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To keep myself honest I have a “should do well” list for 2026. Very tough to time market but if I had to. Will check back in a year.
$BE
$TWST
$TMO
$MKSI
$TSEM
$LRCX
$LTH
$EMBJ
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Kalispell Capital
2.7K posts
Kalispell Capital
@Kalispellbaycap
Not Investment Advice
USA Katılım Ağustos 2020
1.4K Takip Edilen620 Takipçiler
@citrini has analyst #3 on a boat doing DD in a war zone in the Middle East and I am doing DD on retail trends on a different kind of boat in South Florida. So much respect 🫡 to analyst #3 and Citrini’s team.
Hunterbrook@hntrbrkmedia
Exclusive from @citrini x @hntrbrkmedia: A fishing vessel is ablaze in the Persian Gulf just off the Strait of Hormuz.
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Anyone else stress out about not optimizing all their tokens everyday?
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$TH gaining momentum. Fundamentals turning, incentives are there, and in a good theme. Hard to pass this up!
Kalispell Capital@Kalispellbaycap
Great stuff! been looking at them too as a “special situation”. CEO comp package is very intriguing with the PSU grant. ICE and datacenter boom should keep things rolling. @AndrewRangeley and @fabknowledge have talked about this as well. open.spotify.com/episode/26BQra… $TH talk starts at 48min mark
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$Tsem is accelerating here. Optical is starting to become reality for 1.6t. Tsem is adding capacity almost a billion as 2027-2028 is prepaid and sold out. SiPho nodes are leading the industry and also being tied to TSMC coupe
Kalispell Capital@Kalispellbaycap
To keep myself honest I have a “should do well” list for 2026. Very tough to time market but if I had to. Will check back in a year. $BE $TWST $TMO $MKSI $TSEM $LRCX $LTH $EMBJ
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@ContrarianCurse Where would we be without this war lol
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@ContrarianCurse It’s crazy how much more efficient we are going to get in engineering these things. Real sci fi stuff going on people have no clue about
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Three big SAM winners in semi equipment this cycle: inspection, 3D structures, and advanced packaging.
Arguably all more important than planar scaling for performance right now. You gotta get everything closer together. HBM density comes from more layers. Stitching together CPO, memory, and dies requires packaging. And making sure these super expensive packages/dies don’t go to shit requires exponentially more inspection steps.
We are like inning 2 for pressing this scaling vector
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@TimothyBuffett With all the crazy headlines and moves its a great reminder to stay the course. One of the many advantages of running your own money.
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I have not watched this yet, but I always say my biggest edge is behavioral and being a long term business owner.
Kalispell Capital@Kalispellbaycap
The Long View: Pat Dorsey - Economic Moats and More youtu.be/OCWYYOC6whE?si… via @YouTube Great podcast with Pat Dorsey where he talks about how having a behavioral advantage is a lot easier nowadays than having an information edge. He explains that while many investors chase an informational edge (knowing something others don't), that is virtually impossible for widely followed companies like Meta or ASML. Instead, he argues that a behavioral advantage is something "any investor regardless of information can have" and has actually become easier to maintain over the last 10 to 20 years.
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The Long View: Pat Dorsey - Economic Moats and More youtu.be/OCWYYOC6whE?si… via @YouTube
Great podcast with Pat Dorsey where he talks about how having a behavioral advantage is a lot easier nowadays than having an information edge.
He explains that while many investors chase an informational edge (knowing something others don't), that is virtually impossible for widely followed companies like Meta or ASML. Instead, he argues that a behavioral advantage is something "any investor regardless of information can have" and has actually become easier to maintain over the last 10 to 20 years.
YouTube
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Probably pretty fucking good
x.com/ContrarianCurs…
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse
I gotta wonder how Leopold feels with 900m in $BE on a day like today
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Sold the calls now time to flip short again here soon. when people hedge out of their minds these rallies are ferocious. Really fun stuff when you get in the weekly calls.
Kalispell Capital@Kalispellbaycap
Sold the shorts. Little oversold right now and think we get a pop next week. In that pop should short heavy again as we have put our foot in our mouth……
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@WaterworldCapi1 This point twitter has become a good barometer. Should’ve close to green by eod tomorrow and a rip on Tuesday……
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Sold the shorts. Little oversold right now and think we get a pop next week. In that pop should short heavy again as we have put our foot in our mouth……
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@BenBajarin Not calling a bottom but market should pop on the earnings that will reaccel for azure and AWS. This is just insane demand that they’re capitalizing on
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Lots of SKUs of H100 commanding much higher prices.
Inference has moved to N-2,3 etc compute hardware.
And we don’t have nearly enough.
matthew sigel, recovering CFA@matthew_sigel
NVDA H100 rental prices hit 18-month high: $2.59/hour
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Never hedged as aggressively as I am now and man it’s working wonders.
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@evrgn11112231 Just got in today with ya🫡 many times this doomerism is a gift
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@zephyr_z9 not sure this interview is to be taken seriously if the person is stating aaoi is in a key value prop because they are vertically integrated. coherent and lumentum and others grow their own crystals and have much higher yield at the moment....
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Wait, WHAT?!
When did Lumentum/Coherent start buying lasers externally???
Ben Bajarin@BenBajarin
Interesting interview with a Sr Engineer in networking at AWS. Optical is ramping fast. Looking to shift to 1.6T but still can't get all the capacity they need at 800G. Diversified across vendors with InnoLight currently the most share. He estimated there is a ~20-30% demand gap in their current ability to get all the optical components they need from the supply chain. $AAOI growing lasers are a differentiator but also an execution risk.
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is there any way that Spacex ipo sucks liquidity from other megas as its set to be the biggest ipo ever? haven't seen anything like it so wondering how flows will behave
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