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This video talks about Completion Pct Over Expected, and what makes it a great metric.
youtube.com/shorts/IaLBL1w…
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Kabir Devgun
2.4K posts
Kabir Devgun
@Kdevgun28
Founder and Chief Data Officer(Oddman Labs) |@SA_Purdue| @wildwestmidwest podcast| Explaining the numbers behind the game|
Katılım Eylül 2022
1.5K Takip Edilen333 Takipçiler
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This chart compares every RB and TE's play-action YAC per reception with their EPA per target on play-action throws, highlighting which players maximize space and drive offensive efficiency.
With new Commanders OC David Blough expected to feature a play-action-heavy offense, Rachaad White and Chig Okonkwo stand out as intriguing fits. Their previous production on play-action concepts suggests they could become explosive weapons in the new scheme.
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This plot shows each QBs(on 26 rosters) and their performance on play action dropbacks from 2022-2025(priors): x axis represents their accuracy given context, and y axis is their efficiency.
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Kabir Devgun retweetledi
Is yards before contact an offensive line stat? Less than we treat it like one.
I took a deep dive on a stat that we may have been reading wrong, using a couple of different modeling techniques to explain why.
You can read it FREE on my Substack 🔗⤵️
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This chart shows each team's middle-of-field throw rate vs. yards after catch over expected per reception(from 25 season). Combined, the two axes give a quick read on a team's pass-offense style and tendencies — where they like to attack and how much their receivers add once the ball's in their hands.
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@Kirsten_Tanis1 Rookies aren’t part of this given it’s based on nfl priors, but that’s an idea to consider.
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@Kdevgun28 How do you incorporate rookies?
Did you exclude their data or pull college tendencies?
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I built a Safety Versatility Rating (SVR) to measure exactly how much and how widely a safety is deployed across the field, from the slot to the box to deep coverage.
Using Shannon entropy on 2023–25 alignment data, it captures how evenly a defender's snaps are spread across five spots: slot, D-line, corner, free safety, and box. The more balanced the usage, the higher the score.
This chart shows how versatile each team's safety group is heading into 2026.
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Kabir Devgun retweetledi
Rushing success rate leaders by gap during 2025 season (min. 30 carries)
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If Mike Evans and Ricky Pearsall are available, the 49ers will have a new level of field-stretching capability for Brock Purdy. (Christian Kirk can help for that, as well)
De'Zhaun Stribling has a ceiling for the upper right: Big for YAC and 4.36 fast to stretch the field
Kabir Devgun@Kdevgun28
This chart shows a WR’s value after the catch (given context) relative to their average target depth (aDOT). Each quadrant highlights a different receiver archetype. Ex: Bottom-right, some WRs may not generate elite YAC, but they excel at winning downfield and on contested catches
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Just a thought/take I wanted to share: I believe the commanders ILB core has potential to be very good with Jones’ scheme.
hunter🕴🏻@wayuphunt
this is probably the spot i expect the Commanders to improve the most at. adding Sonny Styles, Leo chenal, Nick Cross, just overall youth injection in all 3 levels of the defense should bump an average run defense to above average in my opinion (plus the addition of daronte jones scheme should be a massive upgrade over joe whitts)
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Kabir Devgun retweetledi
Christian Watson very good.
Kabir Devgun@Kdevgun28
This chart shows a WR’s value after the catch (given context) relative to their average target depth (aDOT). Each quadrant highlights a different receiver archetype. Ex: Bottom-right, some WRs may not generate elite YAC, but they excel at winning downfield and on contested catches
English
This chart shows a WR’s value after the catch (given context) relative to their average target depth (aDOT). Each quadrant highlights a different receiver archetype.
Ex: Bottom-right, some WRs may not generate elite YAC, but they excel at winning downfield and on contested catches
English
By combining both the nfl schedule package and next gen stats. I created a plot displaying each teams rush yards over expected allowed per att vs their run epa allowed.
Rush yards over expected tell us how many yards a rusher gets relative to expectation given context variables
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@WyattzWorId MVP - Justin Herbert
OPOY - Jahmyr Gibbs
DPOY - Will Anderson Jr
OROY - Carnell Tate
DROY - Sonny Styles
COTY - Jesse Minter
CPOY - Tucker Kraft
Breakout Player(s) of the Year - Cam Ward, Jalen Nailor
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Give me your NFL Award predictions! 📹
- MVP
- Offensive Player
- Defensive Player
- Offensive Rookie
- Defensive Rookie
- Coach of the year
- Comeback player
- Biggest Bust
You don't have to do them all, and feel free to make some up if you want!
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