Kelly Bevan

My latest @financialpost article is out - and it starts with a scene that perfectly captures Canada’s current fiscal approach: “There’s a scene in the 1988 comedy The Naked Gun where Leslie Nielsen’s Lt. Frank Drebin waves his arms in front of a fireworks factory that has just exploded and calmly tells the horrified crowd, ‘Nothing to see here, please disperse.’” “I’ve often thought about that scene as I’ve watched Mark Carney’s government handle the federal budget process. Behind Drebin, chaos; in front of him, reassurances. The gap between the two is the joke.” That gap is becoming harder to ignore. During the Liberal Party’s coronation of Carney as leader, he promised to split the federal budget into operating and capital accounts - “a deceptive practice with a long history of failure.” As expected, the definition of capital became “ridiculously broad,” allowing routine spending to be reclassified to make the operating budget look great! The Parliamentary Budget Officer noticed, calling it “overly expansive” and estimating capital spending was overstated by “roughly 30 per cent — or $94 billion.” Under a more realistic approach, “the ‘day-to-day operating balance’ would remain in deficit every year through 2029-30.” And the fiscal anchor? “The PBO also pegged the probability that Carney’s deficit-to-gross-domestic-product anchor held at just 7.5 per cent. That isn’t a fiscal anchor; it’s a fiscal wish.” At the same time, the government reshaped the budget process — “moving the budget cycle from the spring to the fall…without a parliamentary study and debate.” That matters because “a fall budget forecast is likely to be less reliable.” Even the timing raises questions. “It’s worth noting that April 28 is two days before the personal tax filing deadline…You could not design worse timing.” Then comes the messaging support. When these changes were introduced, “this was accompanied by [two] tidy International Monetary Fund (IMF) comments crowing about the so-called positives…” That pattern continued, with recent IMF comments describing Canada as “the cleanest dirty shirt.” “Three quotes of IMF praise in six months.” And with a spring update on April 28? “I’m expecting a fourth one on April 29. The fireworks should be great.” All while the message remains: “building the strongest economy in the G7.” But the data tells a different story. “Canada saw a net capital outflow of more than $1 trillion — the largest capital exodus in Canadian history.” “For every dollar in, two dollars left.” Which brings us back to Drebin. “Operating and capital split? Nothing to see here. Budget cycle adjusted without parliamentary study? Please disperse.” “A fiscal anchor with a 7.5 per cent probability of holding? Move along.” “The government is waving its arms and telling Canadians not to look.” And in the end: “The difference between The Naked Gun and Carney’s fiscal strategy is that one of them is knowingly funny.” financialpost.com/personal-finan…

Prime Minister, enough speeches and theatre. It's time for results at home: conservative.ca/cpc/no-more-il…

WOW! CTV give full Poilievre rebuttal video uncut, unedited. Kudos. Watch "...no one has any idea of Mr. Carney's plan to save the over 2 million Canadian jobs that rely on trade with the U.S. these workers cannot eat speeches or videos or announcements." There was no cheerleading Conservative pundit like CTV did after Carney's with Scott Reid @PierrePoilievre