Bryan Sralla

@PeterBoettke @GeorgeSelgin Wow Peter. Well said!!! Thank you!

What do you think you are doing right now, except running the economy into the ground, trampling on civil liberties, searching for monsters to destroy internationally, and burdening future generations with massive debt. Your administration hasn’t slashed government but expanded it, and in the process leading the country into ruin. Own it!

We're at a moment where each party to the Gulf war has an argument for why it should continue fighting—and where each one may end up overreaching. 1) Iran misses its moment of maximal leverage to end the war on favorable terms. Instead of trading Hormuz for a deal that includes sanctions relief, it decides to keep inflicting pain on the global economy, hoping to deter future attack or secure a better deal. Instead its control of the strait becomes a wasting asset: it embarrasses Trump at home and further hardens the positions of his Gulf allies, both of which make it harder for him to end the war. America and Israel ramp up strikes on Iranian infrastructure, with devastating long-term consequences. 2) America launches a ground operation, which (predictably) proves neither a knockout blow to Iran nor a victory image for Trump. It winds up having to hold chunks of Iranian territory. Casualties compel Trump to send even more troops. Far from ending the war, an invasion sucks America further in. Meanwhile the energy shock gets much, much worse. 3) Israel encourages America to keep going, and winds up rupturing its relationship with America. The war is already unpopular with Americans; more of them think it will benefit Israel (55%) than their own country (30%), according to our most recent poll. Imagine that it drags on. American troops are killed in combat. Inflation soars. A wounded Trump administration blames Netanyahu for leading it into a quagmire. The midterms become a referendum on America's relationship with Israel. None of this is entirely far-fetched; indeed, the blame game has already begun. economist.com/middle-east-an…

@glcarlstrom One of the best scenario framings yet published in mainstream media. Well done!

Absolutely remarkable. "Iran is now earning nearly twice as much from oil sales each day as it did before American and Israeli bombs started falling on February 28th. It may be pummelled on the battlefield, but the regime is winning the energy war." economist.com/finance-and-ec…

@EvansRyan202 @WarOnTheRocks “If the Russian military is busy defending its own logistics, energy facilities, and military leaders from high-precision American weapons, it will have less capacity to provide targeting assistance to Tehran.” Good point.

Russia is helping Iran wage war and target Americans. The Trump administration ought not let that go unpunished. Me today in @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/2026/03/punish…

@JoseMarioMX “Cuando una mayoría se confunde con la nación, deja de construir Estado y empieza a ocuparlo” Palabras de mucha sabiduría y entendimiento.

Hay un momento —casi imperceptible— en el que una mayoría deja de gobernar y empieza a creerse dueña del sistema. No ocurre con un golpe, sino con una idea: “ganamos todo, podemos cambiarlo todo”. Ahí nace el error. Porque la democracia no se rompe cuando pierde la oposición, sino cuando quien gana decide que ya no necesita límites. Eso es lo que estamos viendo. Primero, una reforma judicial empujada no para arreglar la justicia, sino para someterla. Después, el intento de rehacer las reglas electorales… hasta que la realidad aparece: los aliados no son convicción, son interés. Y cuando el poder toca intereses, la hegemonía deja de ser proyecto y se convierte en fragilidad. La lección es brutal y debería encender todas las alertas: ningún gobierno, por más votos que tenga, es el país. Cuando una mayoría se confunde con la nación, deja de construir Estado y empieza a ocuparlo. Y ese es el punto exacto donde la democracia deja de ser promesa… y empieza a estar en riesgo.

“Now Russia is resupplying Iran, and these drones are hitting U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf.” The main beneficiary of all this mess is VVP. Who thinks Russia’s President wants the Strait of Hormuz open? Trump did Putin a giant favor by launching this war in the Middle East. Trump’s global 5D strategy strangely looks like Putin’s geopolitical wish list.

Engine from an Iranian drone launched by Russia. It hit one of my facilities in Ukraine 2 years ago. Now Russia is re-supplying Iran & these drones are hitting U.S. troops in Persian Gulf. U.S. should never have illusions about Russia being a friend or a trade partner.

@EnriqueKrauze Uno de mis héroes intelectuales. Un gigante.

This is real analysis, not cheerleading. One can be patriotic, hoping their country succeeds, and still be a professional analyst trained to look objectively and call it like you see it, regardless of politics. History is replete with examples of brilliant tactical success and strategic failure. This is not an especially rare outcome in war. My country (USA) has specialised in these types of war outcomes over the last 75 years. As Kotkin says, winning the battles and losing the peace. Directionally, this seems to be where this war is headed. Anyone who cannot see this possibility is not looking or not wanting to see.

Four weeks into the war, the emerging picture is deeply problematic. The conflict appears to have produced a more radicalized Iranian regime, still in possession of significant stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium, while retaining the ability to exert influence over critical global economic chokepoints, and maintain a steady pace of projectile launches. This has come in exchange for a partial degradation of Iran’s forcd buildup primarily in the conventional domain. Even in this respect, however, the achievements remain limited and, more importantly, It is clear that Iran will rebuild its capabilities, and even if it takes longer than expected, it will ultimately succeed in doing so. The absence of a clearly defined exit strategy has led to a gradual slide into a war of attrition, one that is imposing mounting costs on the economy, military readiness, and, critically, the civilian home front all over the ME and beyond. At the outset of the conflict, the current trajectory suggests a far more ambiguous outcome. At best, the results are mixed; at worst, they point to a troubling gap between operational success and strategic effectiveness. While the end state of the campaign remains uncertain, the current trajectory suggests that accumulated operational gains are not translating into strategic success, and may, in fact, be leading to strategic failure. #IranIsraelWar

This is not a war of necessity, but a war of choice—one initially premised on exploiting Iran’s perceived internal weakness following widespread domestic protests, with the aim of precipitating regime collapse. The fundamental problem emerged when the Iranian regime, contrary to expectations in both Israel and the United States, demonstrated resilience even after the opening shock, most notably the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In the absence of a clearly defined exit strategy from the outset, the campaign has grown increasingly complex. Under current conditions, it is difficult to identify a viable off-ramp that would allow policymakers to credibly claim “victory.” While the operational achievements are significant, they have yet to translate into strategic gains. This leaves decision-makers with a stark choice: either cut losses and pursue a negotiated arrangement with Iran, or expand the scope of the conflict. The latter course would likely exacerbate the broader negative consequences of the campaign, without guaranteeing a favorable strategic outcome—quite the opposite. What is emerging, therefore, is a deepening strategic entanglement—one that could further deteriorate when the Houthis move to fully disrupt traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. #IranWar‌

Hear you but don’t agree. No trickery. Netanyahu has been beating the drums for war with Iran his entire political life. That’s been a constant. Israel is the common denominator. It was an indisciplined and unwise Trump who carries the main blame for this war. Lose-lose-lose imho.

@KennethSralla @glcarlstrom Bc they tricked US into stomping Iran down for a decade or so. By the time they are built up again Israel will be even more of a giant fortress/empire lording it over the mideast. Iran is getting beat up. US is backing the bully w guns and blood. Lose lose except for Israel.

This is why the whole "survival is victory for the regime" argument is short-sighted. Iran went into the war with an increasingly worthless currency, sky-high inflation, a deep well of popular anger over economic problems The longer the war goes on, the worse those problems get. More narrowly, a prolonged war also chips away at both the IRGC's economic power and the defense-industrial base it needs to rebuild its capabilities The theory of an infinitely resilient regime only works if you ignore material conditions in Iran nytimes.com/2026/03/27/wor…

@circlecrules @glcarlstrom How?

@KennethSralla @glcarlstrom Israel

Let me add one point for myself and future reference. A military landing on a Persian Gulf island of your choice is what a country does which wants to close the SoH, not open it. Think through this. There’s no logic in what is being discussed. It almost certainly is a bluff, but who is fooled? Apparently the media. That’s all anyone is talking about. Trump might as well bomb oil and gas infrastructure now if he wants to go this route. That will certainly be the effect of a landing on Kharge Island. Iran will retaliate by destroying oil production across the Gulf. If the landing is an island at the mouth of Hormuz, how does this “open” the strait?

“This is why the whole “survival is victory for the regime” argument is short-sighted.” The concept of victory itself is short-sighted for anyone in this war. This is a lose-lose-lose war. The only semblance of a win is which side emerges with more geopolitical leverage than they had on February 27th. I can’t think of a single likely endgame scenario where the US exits in a better place than where it entered. Iran will be wrecked militarily and economically, but it will rebuild. Its masses will almost certainly continue living under a totalitarian regime. Israel will not be more secure. The Gulf region will not be more stable. The myth of virtually unlimited US expeditionary power will also have been unnecessarily exposed to the test of reality. This will do us no good. Who is victorious?

The underlying issue, Bob, is corporatism: the unholy matrimony between government and the private sector. Government continues to grow in scale and scope. When politicians like Trump hammer away at the barbed wire fences of private property, free speech, and free movement, they weaken constitutional restraints on government and accelerate our slouch toward the surveillance state. AI in government hands risks accelerating the natural tendency toward authoritarianism (maybe even full totalitarianism), but this drift predated AI. What I’m pointing out risks making me sound like a right-wing conspiratorial nut. I’m not. There is no conspiracy; no person or secret group is masterminding the erosion of our freedom. The driver is Buchanan-style public choice political economy, a subtle flaw in liberal society’s institutions. We must repair the breach at the constitutional level, but first we must win over academics and the public with convincing arguments. Adam Smith was not the father of economics. Arguably, the Spanish Scholastics were ahead of him in certain areas centuries earlier. Yet Smith convinced academics and intellectuals of his day that mercantilism was wrong. We need new Adam Smiths today. Politicians can do great immediate harm (mainly by taking us to war), but elections do not repair the flaws in our institutions. The gap in our institutions allows the “unseen hand” of political economy (politicians rationally acting in their self-interest) to pull us back almost inexorably toward authoritarianism. This is society’s natural drift. Freedom is the anomaly in human history. Authoritarianism is the natural state of human society. Freedom is hard. It makes most people feel insecure and unsafe and insults our evolved instinctive sense of social justice (egalitarianism). Authoritarianism appeals to our instincts and gives a false sense of security.

Parasitic AI: Shattering Human Connection - Here’s my daughter Rachel speaking at a rally against Open AI’s sellout to the surveillance state. I’m so proud of her. share.descript.com/view/6m4xarEvw…

@cityaestheticss July 4, 1776 The when and why. That’s British America. Could be any high street in the UK. Only identifier is the US flag.

Why did we stop building cities like this?

@shashj How does it end? Of course it eventually will end, but what ends it? Some scenarios please.

My view: this round of diplomacy goes nowhere, conflict goes into April, but concludes by May. I think ground operation is less likely than not. But if I'm wrong about that and there is a ground operation, then the conflict is likely to go into May.

בסופו של דבר, האופציות שעומדות בפני טראמפ אינן בין טוב לרע, אלא בין רע לרע מאוד. כל הסכם ידרוש ממנו פשרות משמעותיות מול איראן, שיחזקו בפועל את המשטר שהוא ביקש להחליש. מנגד, הרחבת המערכה צפויה להחריף את המצב הכלכלי הבינלאומי, וכל מבצע יבשתי יעמיד את חיילי ארצות הברית בסיכון משמעותי. ככל שהמשטר האיראני לא נופל והמלחמה מתארכת, כך האופציות הופכות קשות יותר להשגה ומורכבות יותר לביצוע. בנוסף, נראה שטראמפ לא הבין שברגע שכבר פגעת במנהיג איראן, אובד מרכיב ההרתעה: איומים נוספים—כמו פגיעה בתשתיות חשמל או אפילו כיבוש האי חארג'—כבר לא נתפסים כרלוונטיים בעיני המשטר בטהראן, ולא יגרמו לו לשנות את עמדותיו. ראיון שלי @radio103fm שמתאר את האתגר בהשגת הסכם מדיני עם המשטר הנוכחי באיראן.

@JamesSurowiecki Problem: Iran holds the cards. It’s called a STRAIT FLUSH. Trump has no hand.

This is Trump saying, "The hell with it. Let's say we won and go home."'

@MichaelAArouet Well Said!! Thank you.