Mick Kerr

@noclador @threadreaderapp unroll

In February 2022 putin declared war on Europe & his army marched on Kyiv. Since then European EU/NATO nations have added and/or are forming these active (!) battalions to their armies: (Worst 2 countries are of course the two loudmouths) 🇵🇱 +44 (3 recon, 4 tank, 12 infantry 1/14

@DmytroKuleba @threadreaderapp unroll

A German friend told me today he was struck by how Ukraine seemed to be regaining control over the dynamics of the war. I would not call it a strategic turn yet. But the shift is real. Here are three reasons why👇

@ChrisO_wiki @threadreaderapp unroll

1/ If yesterday's Victory Day parade had been a true reflection of Russia's frontline army as it is now, it would have been a chaotic display of battered vehicles, motorbikes, exhausted soldiers on crutches, and donkeys. A Russian warblogger imagines how it could have been. ⬇️

@ChrisO_wiki @threadreaderapp unroll

1/ A high-profile figure in Russian drone development has been arrested on charges of large-scale fraud. It's another illustration of how Russia's pervasive corruption is hampering its efforts to become a leading developer and producer of drone technology. ⬇️

@TimWilsonMP Your party's racist slant has lost you urban areas so where to go? Down.

I have no interest in being Labor-lite, Greens-lite, Teal-lite or One Nation-lite. I will be fighting for a majority Liberal government with a bold and confident BIG Liberal agenda.

@noclador @threadreaderapp unroll

Europe has to realize that there are two global military powers that it will have to find an arrangements with to safeguard its future security: 🇺🇸 the US 🇺🇦 Ukraine These two have the highest defence materiel production output, and troops from these two are present in the 1/9

@revishvilig @threadreaderapp unroll

General Biletsky, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps: After Starlink was blocked for Russian forces, the gap between their effectiveness and ours narrowed dramatically, because replacing Starlink as a battlefield communications system is practically impossible. 1/15

@RaduHossu @threadreaderapp unroll

The dynamics of the war are shifting in Ukraine’s favor for the first time since 2023. And I can back up what I’m saying with several arguments: 1. Unsustainable russian losses: - Over the past 5 months, Russia has mobilized 148,000 troops. Also over the past 5 months, the Delta information system—where Ukrainians can view the entire front line and where targets, attacks, and combat reports are uploaded—has recorded 156,000 Russian dead and wounded. Added to these are those taken out of action by artillery, those for whom there is no video evidence, and those eliminated inside buildings for whom there is no evidence (only those for whom there is video evidence are counted). Over the past 18 months, since Ukrainian drones have filled the sky, the russian army has changed its assault tactics, shifting from mechanized strikes to infantry infiltrations. Mechanized units are nearly impossible to use in Ukraine at this time. Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are easy targets for swarms of drones. The use of infantry to infiltrate positions behind Ukrainian lines has worked (with massive casualties) in Chasiv Yar (where we first saw this tactic used on a large scale), Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Myrnograd. This tactic worked because the russians have a deeper recruitment pool, being a larger country and offering much higher contracts and salaries than the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, russia’s human resources are not infinite, and for the first time since the war began, they are dwindling. In the absence of a massive mobilization of russians, or innovations and inventions in infantry protection, and in the absence of a dramatic change in Ukrainian drone production or some extraordinary event, this will continue to happen for a long time. This will lead to the constant, continuous, and irreversible degradation of russian forces. This, in turn, will allow Ukraine to create and exploit vulnerabilities in russian defensive lines. 1/

@revishvilig @threadreaderapp unroll

Whether this intelligence report is accurate, or whether Putin’s system is nearing collapse, as has occurred at moments in Russian history when military setbacks triggered the breakdown of the existing order, is extremely difficult to predict, especially with open-source. 1/4

@kirlant @threadreaderapp unroll

As one who is often asked about RU domestic politics, I remained sceptical about the recent "intel report". There are several factual anomalies / obvious facts masqueraded as secrets that stand out. A short thread: 1/16 istories.media/en/stories/202…

@Mylovanov @threadreaderapp unroll

Kasparov: In Russia, tsars and dictators are forgiven everything except a bad war. If the war goes well, nobody cares how many die. But when the ruler cannot win, discontent begins. That is the law of Russian history, and we are seeing it again now. 1/

@revishvilig @threadreaderapp unroll

General Vasyl Syrotenko, Chief of Ukraine's Engineer Troops: Traditional concepts such as the line of contact, deep rear, or safe zone have largely disappeared, as unmanned capabilities now cover all these areas. 1/15

@clement_molin @threadreaderapp unroll

De son côté, l'armée russe 🇷🇺 n'a réalisé aucune préparation défensive depuis fin 2023 (à part à Koursk). Il n'y a pas eu de nouvelles fortifications devant Donetsk par exemple ni dans les territoires récemment pris, parce que l'armée russe croit impossible toute offensive ukrainienne. Les forces russes se contentent de réutiliser les fortifications ukrainiennes capturées et d'étendre des tranchées dans les haies, rien de plus. Cela est d'autant plus surprenant qu'une offensive mécanisée bien préparée pourrait permettre de pénétrer en profondeur la ligne de front à l'avenir.

@clement_molin @threadreaderapp unroll

L'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 poursuit la fortification d'au moins 45 villes de différentes tailles pour préparer la défense sur le long terme. Parmi les grandes villes, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Soumy ou Tchernihiv ont été renforcées. 🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️

He didn't start any wars. He didn't alienate our allies. He created/recovered 16M jobs. He signed the infrastructure bill. He signed the CHIPS Act. He signed the PACT Act. He didn't build monuments to glorify himself. He didn't use the presidency to enrich himself. He didn't threaten to wipe out an entire civilization. We were BETTER off under Biden.

The visibility of all pro‑Ukrainian accounts, including mine, has dropped dramatically. Please help me fight the algorithm by visiting my profile and boosting posts about today’s Russian war crimes. Pic for attention.

@ChrisO_wiki @threadreaderapp unroll

1/ There will never be a better time than now to attack Europe, says a prominent Russian warblogger. Alexey Zhivov says that victory in Ukraine is slipping away, so Russia needs to act like Iran and attack all the facilities in the EU that are being used to help Ukraine. ⬇️

@Ce_Moll @threadreaderapp unroll

US-threat to German stationing 1/17 — Capabilities, not numbers The possible US drawdown from Germany is not mainly a 5,000-troop story. The key issue is the capability that may not arrive: land-based US Long-Range Fires as a bridge for Europe’s Deep Precision Strike gap.

@Beno10_MFC 49

Only the wisest person can solve this mathematical problem. Test your brain thinking level. Can you solve?

@ChrisO_wiki @threadreaderapp unroll

1/ Russia faces being surrounded by Europe's mightiest power - the United Kingdom. In a commentary that highlights Russian nationalists' peculiar obsession with Britain, a warblogger predicts doom unless a military alliance is formed with China, North Korea, and Iran. ⬇️