Kevin Kelly

The crypto market is highly cyclical. Crypto market cycles are also remarkably consistent. But their consistency isn’t just by coincidence. They’re predictable. If we're right, this has huge implications for the crypto market going forward. Time to air out some charts... 👇

Thrilled to be leading @tori_finance's seed. Most on-chain yield is reflexive, it originates from within crypto and compresses the moment markets cool. Tori sources returns from an entirely different universe: institutionally scalable delta-neutral and HFT strategies in TradFi that have consistently generated strong low double-digit APY for decades. Completely uncorrelated to crypto market direction. Access to this was previously gated behind 7-figure minimums and accreditation. Now it's open to anyone with a wallet. The real unlock though is what crypto adds to this. DeFi composability lets users recursively leverage their position, pushing effective yields considerably beyond the baseline. You can't do that with a traditional fund share, this is a case where bringing something on-chain makes the product strictly better. Add full on-chain verifiability of every position and you get TradFi-grade transparency alongside access and composability that TradFi simply can't offer.

Stablecoin issuance is commoditizing. Now a growing wave of white label issuers handle the entire stack. Projects like Paxos, Bridge, Anchorage, and M0 are all providing issuance as a service. The process is becoming standardized and low-margin, which means the moat in stablecoins is shifting from who can issue to who has distribution. That's why Tether and Circle have dominated for five years. Their edge was in liquidity depth and exchange integrations that created a flywheel no one else could replicate. The long tail of stablecoin issuers won't win by competing head to head on those terms. The ones gaining traction are finding a different angle. Paxos is one example. They provide issuance infrastructure and regulatory compliance while partners like PayPal handle distribution. That model has taken the market cap of Paxos-issued assets from roughly 1B to 7.75B in roughly one year. Distribution is the moat.

This is the best thing you'll read today. And we all need to hear it...

Jason breaks down what's been driving crypto lower. "The pattern we've seen since 10/10 into year end has persisted into the new year. Just relentless crypto-specific selling, especially relative to traditional equity markets." cc @MilkRoad

new free @Delphi_Digital weekly newsletter is the only weekly summary you need. reduce clutter & sub here: delphi.link/Newsletter1 - week summary - notable assets price movements - alpha feeds - research insights - top reads - capital flows - fresh raises - token unlocks - more

I was frustrated there wasn't much data aggregation for @Lighter_xyz and $LIT so I vibe coded this dashboard. Now you can do some Lighter sleuthing - trader leaderboards, wallet PnL, volume trends, market activity. Claude code + Lighter APIs = gud tek

What happens when holders sell? Every token team asks this question. Few actually model it. Introducing Sell Pressure, a free simulator for token unlock dynamics. 🧵

Yan discusses the messy reality between equity and tokens. "If you have value flowing to both no one's going to want to buy the equity if they have this weird token obligation. So I think it's just a messy situation where you're sending value to an entity that you can't get any kind of value from."

Thanks to @Polymarket, our 2026 Year Ahead Reports are now free for everyone! Each report will have curated prediction markets you can view directly. Research you can read. Predictions you can trade.

We're going live tomorrow with Threadguy to talk about our newly curated prediction markets on @polymarket. Join us as we walk through our predictions and spicy takes from our Year Ahead reports. Tune in tomorrow 12:30 PM PST here:

the 2026 crypto predictions stream with delphi. ft our own custom polymarkets . 1230pm pst TOMORROW PULL UP

LTR discusses where he thinks crypto goes from here. "You're going to have a barbell where you have these institutionalized chains that are custodied but then on the other end, you're going to have private credit onchain that's enabled by things via zkTLS. And then a resurgence in DeFi in the form of exotic RWA yield on undercollateralized loans. That's how I see things going for now. "

@AriannaSimpson @danboneh @maybeltr been digging deep + writing lot about this recently too

I've been thinking a lot about how AI agents are going to reshape the web, and @danboneh brought an interesting EIP (ERC-8004: Trustless Agents) to my attention today. The protocol outlines a proposal for how agents from across different org boundaries (aka, agents built by different teams or companies) can interact without requiring pre-existing trust. It does this via three main registries: 1. Identity - each agent gets a unique identifier 2. Reputation - provides a standard way of scoring reputation based on various signals 3. Verification - allows for requesting and registering independent validator checks. You can read more about it here: eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-8004

the uncomfortable truth: most research is performative, not predictive if the market already agrees with you, you're not generating alpha but merely repackaging consensus for people too busy to notice they're late research has lived in this accountability vacuum for too long. being "right" and being "six months behind" are functionally identical when there's no price attached to your view delphi + polymarket is the first crack in the future of institutional research

We're excited to turn our research into tradeable markets. Every major institution's forecasts will be tied to prediction markets. We're going first. Read more about our partnership with @Polymarket here. forbes.com/sites/digital-…

first hivemind of 2026 first 20 minutes or so is markets and then the rest we get into tokens versus equity, @MetaDAOProject, @colosseum's STAMP, buybacks, etc.

"In a world overwhelmed with AI-generated noise, accountability is what the information economy needs." Amped to see this go live with nearly a dozen new markets on @Polymarket All created from @Delphi_Digital Year Ahead reports -- which are now publicly available for all to read ⬇️

@Delphi_Digital 👀👀