JohnnyBlue

@htsfhickey Since when has the lame WSJ columnists trader mindset been obsessed with anything beyond 2 o’clock tomorrow afternoon; first laugh … then, of course, gleefully ignore them

A negative story on gold in today's Wall Street Journal. When gold was soaring and all the headlines were gold bullish (including rising Wall St. target prices), I grew more worried. I'd like to see more of these dour headlines. wsj.com/finance/commod…

@FlorianGrummes @FirstMining @FMSilverCorp @keith_neumeyer @MiningDiscovery @ResourcingTomo @KitcoNewsNOW “Your job is to buy the dip” - still applies

Gold Daily Call for March 19th, 2026 #gold #firstmininggold #preciousmetals #bullmarket #correction #consolidation #sideways #geopolitics #riskoff #beverycautious $FF $FFMG $GLD $PHYS 🇨🇦 @FirstMining @FMSilverCorp @keith_neumeyer @miningdiscovery @resourcingtomo @KitcoNewsNOW @KitcoMining @GoldTelegraph_ @GoldSeekcom @Celticgold_Inc @GOLDINVEST_de @www_gold_de @GoldPreis_de @Goldreporter @GoldReporterCom @mining @MiningOnline @MiningMagazine @JrMiningNetwork @TrevAHall @thomcalandra @inversormodest1 @soarfinancial @TheApeOfGoldST @TheDailyGold @peter_krauth @OilandGasInvest @JayMartinBC @nickchodge @Brien_Lundin @GoldFishCharts @GoldPriceEUR10 @TFMetals @goldchartbook @ValueSeeker_ @RealRickRule @miningmavengwen @GregMcCoach @ChenLinPicks @CEOTechnician @cberry1 @TheNextBigRush @jessebday @ItsWarrenIrwin @MakeGoldGreat @marketplunger1 @TrevorGordonDav @themarketsniper @CelticGold_AG

Everyone is covering the Hormuz crisis as a list of problems. Energy. Fertiliser. Shipping. Insurance. Each gets its own headline. Each gets its own analyst. Each gets modelled independently. That is exactly why every model is wrong. The crisis is not a list. It is a loop. And the loop is feeding on itself in ways that no linear framework can capture. Follow the chain. Gulf sulfur supply is cut. Nearly half of global seaborne sulfur trade is Gulf-dependent. Without sulfur there is no sulfuric acid. Without sulfuric acid there is no phosphate processing. China sees its own phosphate production threatened and bans exports through August. Global phosphate tightens. Blended fertiliser costs spike. Corn economics collapse relative to soybeans. American farmers shift 1 to 2 million acres away from corn. Corn supply tightens. But the ethanol mandate does not care. The Renewable Fuel Standard requires 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually, consuming roughly 43 percent of the US corn crop regardless of price. Ethanol demand is inelastic. Corn gets squeezed from both the supply side and the demand side simultaneously. Corn prices rise. Feed costs rise. The protein cascade flips. US cattle herd sits at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry and pork were benefiting from cheap feed. That reverses when corn crosses $5 per bushel. The entire animal protein complex margin-compresses. Meat prices rise. Food import bills for developing nations swell. Egypt, already facing $29 billion in external debt repayments, cannot absorb it. Pakistan, where debt service consumes a devastating share of tax revenue, cannot absorb it. Sub-Saharan Africa’s $90 billion 2026 debt wall leaves zero fiscal space. Sovereign stress worsens. The fiscal capacity for fertiliser subsidies erodes. Application rates fall further. Yields drop further. Grain markets tighten further. Import bills rise further. The loop closes. And starts again. Tighter each cycle. Now layer the channels nobody is modelling. Iran struck a desalination plant in Bahrain on March 8. Kuwait depends on desalination for 90 percent of its drinking water. The Gulf holds 42 percent of global desalination capacity, co-generated with power infrastructure under active bombardment. Australia imports virtually all its urea, two-thirds from the Gulf. Its entire heavy freight network runs on AdBlue, which is 32.5 percent high-purity urea. No urea, no AdBlue, no freight movement, no groceries delivered. A Gulf drone dictates whether Sydney supermarkets stock shelves. Southeast Asian aquaculture, 68 percent of the world’s farmed fish, depends on soybean meal for the majority of feed costs. Soy is repricing as corn-to-soy acreage shifts alter the entire oilseed complex. US cotton acres declining 3.2 percent to 9.0 million. Bangladesh imports over 95 percent of raw cotton and faces simultaneous synthetic disruption from the same petrochemical shutdown. The garment sector generating 85 percent of export earnings is being hit from three directions. And underneath all of it: PE, PP, PET, aluminium, tinplate, glass. All rising simultaneously. Adding several percentage points to retail food prices through a channel no farm futures contract tracks. The Fed meets tomorrow with core PCE at 3.0 to 3.1 percent and GDP growth deteriorating. Markets price at most one rate cut in December. The central bank that is supposed to stabilise prices is watching fourteen transmission channels reprice simultaneously through a single chokepoint it has no tool to reopen. This is not fourteen separate crises. It is one system consuming itself. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@grok @aimeespage @GoldTelegraph_ @grok which companies mine these

The 13 critical minerals are: arsenic, bismuth, gadolinium, germanium, graphite, hafnium, nickel, samarium, tungsten, vanadium, ytterbium, yttrium, and zirconium. They're vital for semiconductors, weapons systems, aerospace alloys, and electronics, per the Pentagon's request to mining firms.

BREAKING NEWS THE U.S. MILITARY ASKED MINING COMPANIES ON FRIDAY TO HELP BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLIES OF 13 CRITICAL MINERALS USED TO MAKE SEMICONDUCTORS, WEAPONS AND OTHER PRODUCTS The scramble for minerals in full force.

@Macrobysunil A real nutcase

Professor Jiang Xueqin — the man who called Trump’s return in May 2024 and predicted the exact US-Israel strike on Iran over a year before it happened, just dropped Game Theory #9 today. And what he says about the petrodollar is the most important macro call of 2026. The Structural Fragility (Geography is Destiny) The GCC (Bahrain, UAE/Dubai-Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) are artificial petro-states built on sand. - 80 % of all food is imported - 60 % of all fresh water comes from energy-intensive desalination plants - Flat, open desert terrain, zero natural cover - 90 %+ expats in Dubai, zero domestic fighting spirit - Entire model depends on selling oil exclusively in USD and recycling trillions back into US assets Iran, by contrast, is a mountainous fortress with strategic depth, a population that has survived decades of sanctions, and a Shia martyrdom culture that turns death into fuel. Professor Jiang pulls up the maps: Strait of Hormuz (33 km wide, 20 % of global oil), water-stress charts (UAE & Bahrain literally off the scale), ethnic/religious overlays. “These countries should not exist in their current form. They only do because America protects them. That protection is now being tested by $40,000 drones.” The Asymmetric Warfare Machine Iran is not matching US firepower. It is bankrupting it. - Shahed drones: $35k–$50k each, 500 produced per day, estimated 80,000 stockpile - Target list: desalination plants, oil terminals, power grids, airports, US bases - US/Israeli response: $1–3 million Patriot/THAAD missiles (often 2–3 needed per drone) - “That’s kind of silly,” Jiang says with his trademark dry laugh. One drone can knock out a desalination plant serving millions. A few hits on Jebel Ali or Ras Tanura and the revenue + water + electricity triple crisis hits simultaneously. Country-by-Country Collapse Sequence 1. Bahrain — First to Fall (Weeks, Not Months) - 50–60 % Shia population ruled by Sunni monarchy seen as US/Saudi puppet - Home of US 5th Fleet naval base, already under direct missile/drone barrage - Khamenei’s martyrdom + school strike = religious obligation for jihad Jiang’s prediction: Shia uprising + Iranian support → monarchy flees or is overthrown. Loss of 5th Fleet = catastrophic strategic defeat for America. 2. Dubai / UAE — Glamour Model Dies Overnight - 90 %+ expats, $200k–$250k charter flights already happening - Airport shutdowns, Burj Al Arab hit, luxury projects exposed Jiang’s exact words: “Dubai as a city in the long term — it is dead. You’re a wealthy Westerner or Asian. You’re not coming back to a place that can be attacked any time by Iranians.” 3. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, The Slow-Motion Implosion - Same vulnerabilities on larger scale - Shia minorities in eastern Saudi oil fields - Massive desalination complexes, food import dependence - When water runs out and oil money stops flowing, the social contract (subsidies, no taxes) breaks The Game-Theory Endgame This is classic asymmetric repeated game with massive differences in: - Pain tolerance: Iran fights to the death (jihad + martyrdom). GCC elites have private jets and Swiss accounts — they run. - Credible commitment: Iran’s command is now decentralized and religiously motivated. GCC’s loyalty is purely transactional. - Cost curve: Iran spends $40k, US spends millions per response. Iran can do this forever. GCC cannot. When the monarchies crack (and Jiang says they will), petrodollar recycling stops cold. No more Gulf trillions buying US Treasuries, US stocks, US real estate, US tech. Oil sales instantly diversify into Yuan, Rupee, gold, or BRICS currencies. The “exorbitant privilege” that let America run endless deficits since 1973–74 vanishes. Final End-State for the GCC - Monarchies either collapse, flee into exile, or become Iranian-aligned vassal states - Region fragments into water wars and proxy chaos - “Pax Islamica” under Iranian leadership (Shia-led jihad narrative) replaces US-backed order - The entire post-1971 American financial architecture loses its Gulf pillar Jiang has been saying this exact sequence since 2024. Today he is simply documenting it in real time. For macro liquidity warriors: This is the regime change event. Structural dollar demand collapse → yield spike → liquidity crunch → acceleration of de-dollarization The GCC isn’t being conquered by armies. It is being dismantled by cheap drones, water scarcity, religious fervor, and the unforgiving math of game theory. The lights are going out in Manama. The runway lights are shutting off in Dubai. And the petrodollar is dying with them. youtu.be/jIS2eB-rGv0?si… via @YouTube

@DangoteGroup @grok how many countries will Dangote connect via pipelines

"Nigerians should thank God for Dangote."

Numbers don’t lie

@ekwufinance Not a “trade”, bro. Turn off your Bloomberg screen. Only morons “trade”. More like a long overdue monetary “reset”.

This gold bull market is far from over. Gold physical ETF holdings have yet to reach the 2022 high. - Gold price 2022: 1.9K - Gold price 2026: 5K In other words, while the gold price went up almost 3x, physical ETF holdings sold off. Almost no one except central banks is participating in the gold trade. We are early.

Software stocks have been in a free fall lately on mounting concerns about disruption by AI. I have just published a 4,000-word essay explaining why AI won't kill B2B software, but kills their growth story. You can read it below, no paywall: capitalist-letters.com/p/software-arm…

@TheStalwart @tracyalloway Enlightening interview

NEW ODD LOTS: The Utilities Analyst Who Says Datacenter Math Doesn't Add Up @tracyalloway and I talk to CreditSights' co-head of IG credit Andy DeVries who says datacenter power demand will fall short and that utilities are OVERBUILDING for the future podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

@stoddeo @KevRGordon @carlquintanilla Wait … you actually “watch” CNBS

@KevRGordon @carlquintanilla Tell your programming people at CNBC that if I wanted to watch a Congressional meeting, I would turn to CSPAN. Come on, CNBC, get back to business and stocks. This is BS!!

Software relative to the S&P 500 is a particularly brutal chart ... essentially 6 years of relative gains wiped out

@KevRGordon @LizAnnSonders The “world is eating software” - memba dat

@PermabullNino @MySportsUpdate We “own” the flippin Falcons, bro. See the tape

@MySportsUpdate Expensive tab to eventually get steam rolled by the Falcons

The #Panthers are picking up the fifth-year option on QB Bryce Young, which will be worth more than $26.5M fully guaranteed for the 2027 season.

@MilesFranklinCo @ASchectman Oh great … Social media hog spouts the obvious

🚨This is NOT normal. @ASchectman says that 63 MILLION ounces of silver just stood for physical delivery – when historically less than 1% of contracts ever do. The takeaway? The most well-funded, best-informed players on Earth – central banks, commercial banks, sovereign wealth funds – are quietly rejecting paper promises & demanding the real metal. They’re draining the exchanges while the media stays silent. Watch Andy’s appearance on @JimFergusonUK's Freedom Train here to learn more: x.com/JimFergusonUK/…

@rodboone Yo peoples… jes let da coach “COACH” ! … for heaven’s sake. Way too much “nitpicking” going on regarding an excellent young coach that we are fortunate to have here in da QC. The future is bright.

Why did LaMelo sit for most of crunch time? Asked Charles Lee about it after the game: charlotteobserver.com/sports/charlot…

@UGAfootballLive Too bad; this season’s game up in Knoxville was one of the most entertaining football games of the entire college football year. “Gunna” pulling out pin point passes in the waning moments of that tilt was electrifying and kept everyone interested on the edge of their seats.

Hated rival vanishes from Georgia's 2026 schedule after 34 years ugafootballlive.com/football/georg…

@TheBubbleBubble @reneedek1 All are thieves; If I were you … I wouldn’t cite them so proudly as some kind of authorities in these matters. I mean … like where were they a year ago when the same macro dynamics were in play?

@reneedek1 Yes, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bank of America, HSBC, and Société Générale have similar expectations.

Continued heavy central bank gold buying, among other factors, could easily drive gold above $5,000 in 2026. Learn more in my latest report posted in the comments below⬇️ $PSLV $PHYS

@TheBubbleBubble Whatchu mean “could”, bro

Look at this chart: Gold in Japanese Yen moves almost exactly with Japan’s 30-year government bond yield. The correlation is insanely tight, and there’s a simple reason. When long-term yields in Japan rise, it usually means: • Investors are dumping long-duration JGBs • Japan’s government needs to offer higher yields to attract buyers • This puts pressure on the yen and signals liquidity stress inside Japan And in that environment, Japanese investors look for safety outside the bond market. The cleanest alternative store of value? 👉 #Gold — especially in Yen terms. So as long yields break out sharply (as they did recently), it actually strengthens the structural case for Gold in JPY. Rising yields = weakening confidence in bonds = stronger flow into hard assets. In simple terms: Japan’s long yields go up → Yen weakens → Gold in Yen gets bid even harder. This isn’t just correlation, it’s money shifting from one asset class to another in real time.

Elon emerges once again with his favourite flavour of futurist pablum—this time a techno-feudalist lullaby assuring the masses that money itself will evaporate once the mechanical gods reach sufficient omnipotence. It is the same utopian drivel that Marxists used to chant around their communal bonfires, except now it is delivered with LED backlighting and the obligatory promise of robot butlers. The irony is so thick it could be quarried. We are told, with the solemnity of a man revealing the mysteries of Eleusis, that currency will “become irrelevant.” Power, mass, electricity—all those stubborn constraints of physics—will remain, but somehow the medium that has coordinated human exchange for millennia will vanish because a billionaire believes his toys are approaching transcendence. It is the political philosophy of a child who thinks that if he builds a large enough sandcastle, the tide will lose interest. And we are expected to believe this is capitalism. Being a businessman does not make one a capitalist. If anything, history demonstrates the inverse: businessmen, once ascendant, inevitably try to strangle the market that elevated them. Peter Thiel says this openly, almost proudly—competition is for losers; monopolies are the goal. That is not capitalism. That is feudalism with better Wi-Fi. It is the same impulse that drove medieval lords to erect walls around their fiefdoms, except now the walls are app stores, proprietary APIs, and data silos fortified with the digital equivalent of boiling oil. Elon is no different. His every venture—cars, rockets, satellites, social media, AI—is encircled by the same walled-garden instinct. Control is the product. Exclusivity is the revenue. The man canonised by his followers as a champion of market dynamism has spent his career constructing ecosystems you cannot leave without a penalty. Even his rhetoric about “open discussion” and “free speech” dissolves the moment it conflicts with brand management. These men are not apostolic defenders of capitalism; they are its saboteurs. Capitalism thrives on decentralised decision-making, open entry, and the freedom to compete. What we actually see is the consolidation of power into vertically integrated realms where the lord of the manor rents out the future by subscription. It is techno-feudalism masquerading as innovation, and its chief evangelists are billionaires who have discovered that the quickest route to godhood is to enclose the commons and charge rent to everyone who wanders through. The absurdity of declaring “money will stop mattering” becomes clear when we recognise that such fantasies serve a single purpose: to distract from the consolidation of economic power into fewer and fewer hands. When a man who owns rockets, satellites, AI companies, social platforms, energy infrastructure, and vehicular ecosystems tells you that currency is obsolete, what he actually means is that he envisions a world where he controls the allocation of resources directly. No need for markets. No need for price signals. No need for consent. Just obedience. This is not capitalism. It is a grand return to hierarchy, cloaked in the shimmering jargon of futurism. The techno-barons want a world where they are kings, and we—if sufficiently docile—are granted access to their systems in exchange for gratitude. Call it what it is: the old lust for dominion, repackaged as progress.