Victor83

@DowdEdward The first domino would be PE sponsored companies firing a ton of people. That isn’t happening currently. PE markdowns would then be severe. Not seeing that either This is fear mongering at its best.

Let’s assume you are correct and it’s not the GFC…the problem is the marginal credit creation the last two years was in NDFI’s. It’s likely that underwriting standards went out the window industry wide due to huge growth in assets the last two years. We are in an economic contraction and your asset class is frozen due to redemption requests. You have entered mark down and work out phase. Losses are coming. How large is the question.

@DarioCpx Are BDCs legally limited to 2:1 leverage at most?

This post is going to age so badly

@markcecchini 100% my best refers came from non-clients who were once prospects themselves.

One of the best referrals is from someone who doesn’t hire me but still chooses to refer a colleague after the process Just happened today from someone who went through last Fall Referrals can be a big risk (especially with something as personal as financial planning)

@LamarMK 700.

Many people are scared to get a Tesla because they think they need to spend $5000 or more to install a charger at home. No you don't. I charge my Tesla using a regular 240v outlet in my garage. Same outlet as a dryer. Your local electrician can install one for under $500. Your new Tesla already comes with a mobile connector that plugs right into it. If you want a Tesla Wall Connector, that's $450 and about $500 to install. Get home, plug it in, and by the time you finish making dinner it's fully charged. Charging at home can cost you under $3 a day. No more spending $60 a week on gas. The savings of driving an EV are HUGE and it starts on day one. What's stopping you from making the switch?

@unlimited_ls Florida. It’s where the bottom the barrell of society end up. All those lost hometown kids eventually find their way to Florida with meth, bath salts etc.

🚨NEW: Tesla driver left with a brain bleed and broken ribs after being viciously beaten by a man he stopped to help on a Florida highway Hans Hamilton driving north on the 429 Expressway near Walt Disney World when he saw a white Lexus crash into a guardrail Daniel Coman, 44, suddenly jumped on Hamilton’s Tesla and smashed the windshield Footage obtained by News 6 shows Coman attacking Hamilton on the ground, repeatedly striking his head and body for over 30 seconds Hamilton managed to free himself and struck Coman in the throat to stop the assault A deputy from the Orange County Sheriff’s Office arrived, and Coman immediately tried to fight the officer

@zerohedge Thankful for the 5% gate. Investors will learn now that they are not a good fit for this type of vehicle. This was a good lesson for them.

BLUE OWL CREDIT INCOME FUND RECEIVED WITHDRAWAL REQUESTS ESTIMATED AT 21.9% OF THE FUND SHARES IN Q1 BLUE OWL OTIC FUND RECEIVED WITHDRAWAL REQUESTS ESTIMATED AT 40.7% OF THE FUND SHARES IN Q1

@vinodsrinivasan You’re out of your depth here and listed too many errors to even argue.

Howard Marks has been in credit markets since 1978. He took the phone call that started the high yield bond industry. He built one of the world’s largest distressed debt firms. This month, at his own conference, he said something every retail investor needs to hear.

@ronrule Yes and that’s 100% a great idea. Just double the cap would help immensely.

What Dems aren’t saying is they want to lift the cap, but NOT increase the benefit. Someone making $184k would pay 12.4% of their income and get ~$4k/mo in retirement. Someone making $1M would pay 12.4% and ALSO get ~$4k in retirement. It’s just a sneaky way of raising taxes.

@FinanceLancelot lol that’s enough social media for today.

People are starting to realize how large of a crisis this oil, fertilizer & helium shock is to the global economy It's basically 2020 lockdowns, 2008 credit bubble, 2001 tech bubble, 1970s oil shock all wrapped into one. The only comparable period is the great depression of 1929

@ewarren PAY OFF the $39T before spending another new tax dollar……..

The Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act would generate over $6 trillion over the next decade—without raising taxes on 99.85% of American households. This wealth tax for millionaires and billionaires could pay for universal child care, free community college, Medicare expansion, and more.

@tonypayments Is he Vernon ghloston? His tape and measurables were off the charts too

If you were in Columbus today, in person, watching Arvell Reese workout, and didn’t come away thinking that this is a premium level athlete with unlimited upside, you should quit talking about athletes. Forever. Don’t even bother watching his tape actually playing the game. In pads. You will never get it. Ever.

@geswolfcrest @LanceRoberts There is no public secondary market to market in real time. Likely using a DCF model to place a value on them

@LanceRoberts And is the reason they have “lower volatility” because of their apparent failure to mark their assets to market?

Yes, if you invest in Private Equity/Credit, you do so for lower volatility and an "Illiquidity Premium." The funds have made longer-term loans or investments in other companies, so you ACCEPT that your funds are tied up until those investments/loans mature. Therefore, DO NOT be surprised when funds "GATE" their exits to protect their investments and other investors in the fund. You played a big boy game; now deal with the big boy consequences.

@MySportsUpdate @PatMcAfeeShow I find this odd since CAA represents both of them

Dan Orlovsky says he texted 12–15 GMs/decision-makers that Alabama QB Ty Simpson is the best QB in the draft, and only 2 disagreed. (🎥 @PatMcAfeeShow)

@gnoble79 It’s hard to take anyone serious when they sell courses.

Private credit returns 11.5% on loans that yield 9.5%. Nobody asks how. I'll tell you how: Leverage. They take a portfolio of loans yielding 9.5%, lever it 2x, and the gross return doubles to 19%. Subtract financing costs and fees, hand the client 11.5%, and show them a chart with a line so smooth it would make Madoff jealous. That's the product Wall Street has been selling to pensions, endowments, insurance companies, and now your 401(k). They even gave it a nice name. "Private credit." There's a better name for it: volatility laundering. The returns aren't smooth because the risk is low. They're smooth because nobody is marking anything to market. The same people making the loans are the ones deciding what they're worth. When everything's going up, that's a feature. When it turns? It's a trapdoor. And we're watching the trapdoor open right now. Funds are gating redemptions across the industry. Loans are going from 100 cents on the dollar to zero in a single quarter. The biggest asset managers on earth are telling investors: "Sorry, you can't have your money back." And none of this should surprise anyone who's been paying attention. Every cycle produces the SAME SCHEME wearing a different outfit. Junk bonds in the 80s. Mortgage-backed securities in 2007. Both sold the identical promise - equity-like returns with bond-like stability. Both ended the same way. Private credit is the 2020s version. Bigger numbers. Fancier packaging. Same math. The leverage is the tell. Any time someone shows you returns that look too good for the underlying asset, there's leverage hiding somewhere in the structure. And leverage doesn't create returns... It amplifies outcomes - in both directions. What pisses me off is that the people running this know exactly what they're doing. The risk disclosures are 400 pages long. The gates are buried in footnotes. It's not technically illegal. But doing something because you can get away with it - not because it's right - is a special kind of rotten. After 2008, NOBODY went to jail. Banks paid fines that amounted to rounding errors on their balance sheets. The message was clear: heads you win, tails the taxpayer covers it. So of course they did it again. Why wouldn't they? And here's where the realist in me takes over from the idealist: They're not going to let this blow up cleanly. They NEVER do... The playbook is extend, pretend, and print. Special vehicles. Special accommodations. More liquidity injected into a system that's already drowning in it. Every time they paper over a crisis, they confirm the only trade that matters. Gold pulled back hard this week - from $5,000 to around $4,575. Every shakeout over the past two years has been a buying opportunity. The structural case (debasement, central bank accumulation, collapsing confidence in sovereign debt) hasn't weakened. It's accelerated. The worse private credit gets, the more they'll have to print. And the more they print, the HIGHER gold goes. It's not complicated. It's just math that most people don't want to accept.

@leadlagreport So what? You expect 1/3 of the US employment to just crumble because of PC? You’ll are like high school girls with the none stop chatter about this.

FOLLOW THIS FUCKER RIGHT NOW

@j_fishback Bomb Iran. F them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon.

Would you rather spend $200 billion to bomb Iran or…? A: give every teacher in America a $62,500 bonus B: provide downpayment assistance for 20 million young families C: build 1,300 rural hospitals