Kuma Capital

HBM requirements continue to skyrocket even for Inference TPUs What if memory companies proceed to rerate to industry average P/Es once everyone realizes that memory, especially HBM, will be in a structural shortage till 2030, and share prices of the big three pull off a 3-4x from here while NVDA pumps to 300 in the next year? What if?

200M gas limit post Glamsterdam 🤩 That's 3.33x the current gas limit. Ethereum is scaling and it is scaling hard.

since 2021 chatgpt went from 0 to 900M MAUs, there is nothing remotely comparable to that kind of activity occurring on crypto native rails the trade was rotate btc into gold as saylor ponzi institutionalized it and gold broke out of 10 year range and rotate eth into nvda/ai --- not sure how crypto will become fastest horse again when ai is being funded by infinite $$$ from the most profitable companies in the world that are being turbobid by every person with a job while being sponsored by governments, and in contrast crypto is comprised of the unemployed gambling against each other on coins backed by air, the ai tech cos are legit only constrained atm by lack of physical hardware & not enough energy from grids rather than dollars, and demand on retail + enterprise side has not shown any signs of slowing down as models continue improving and getting cheaper to use i do believe crypto will revolutionize finance with perps, stablecoins, and prediction markets - we are a 0 to 1 improvement on many archaic systems on how to speculate on assets and how to transmit value globally, but it is not clear whether that will be captured by existing majors ---- what could make crypto outperform again? • hyperliquid + tradexyz going viral with builder codes through multiple frontend venues as the best place to speculate with leverage on stocks, perps are a better product than options & will be more enticing for retail as they become more popular, need breakout attention outside of just CT bubble to catalyze this happening • crypto social app that does not market itself as a "crypto" app, with emphasis on user-focused identities provable w/ zk as a counterbalance to overwhelming amount of ai content on social media, gate app with $$$ tiers for certain unlockables, enable some sort of speculation prediction market features that allow people to bet on real life events with their friends, some sort of focus on IRL activity that differentiates itself from other socials with gamification aspect • whoever solves stablecoins for consumer stores seems like a big winner also • saylor somehow not face of bitcoin anymore, quantum issues solved with some dev organization, btc finds rightful place much closer to gold's market cap i honestly have no idea hype does seem like an easy hold but generally it seems much lower risk with more upside to simply sit in AMZN/GOOG/AAPL & gamble on lowcap ai shitcos feels like we need to go way lower to washout people who still are overconfident that we will just come back for no apparent reason

Crypto is paying a high price for years of altcoin scams and grifts. It can feel like a toxic industry where very little value is created. It's easy to feel disillusioned and wish you were focusing on AI-related trading, businesses, or working at a startup in that sector. Many companies and investment firms have already begun the rotation out of Crypto. Don't let your apathy make you unproductive; it's your personal responsibility to continue learning about the world. If you feel the call of the wild, then go. For the ones brave enough to stick around, not only will the risk-reward be as asymmetric as it's been in recent history, the concentration of upside in a handful of assets will make it EASIER to generate massive returns. There is less capital looking at Crypto exposure than ever before. This all changes with a rapid repricing in Bitcoin this year, which I believe is inevitable. For a long time in Crypto, nothing felt buyable due to an excess of capital being forced to deploy in a sector with limited opportunity. We're in a new regime now. We're reaching a similar level of apathy that I felt during 2019 and 2022. I almost quit Crypto to go back to TradFi. It's no surprise those were the years where I generated the bulk of my returns (sans Hyperliquid). Outside of trading, if you're passionate about the space, companies that are still building during this period will be positioned to take advantage of the inevitable reacceleration of this industry. Working at top-tier companies in the space is more accessible than ever due to a shortage of people entering the field. Don't undervalue your time.

$100,000 invested 5 years ago in Ethereum $ETH is worth $85,000 today. $100,000 invested 5 years ago in Nvidia $NVDA is worth $1,400,000 today.