Leon G. Marincowitz

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Leon G. Marincowitz

Leon G. Marincowitz

@LGMarincowitz

Problem Solver | Prefer the big picture - love the details | Traditional Catholic | FLOSS & Privacy Enthusiast | Austrian Econ | Entrepreneur | Thinker & Doer

Johannesburg, South Africa Katılım Nisan 2012
60 Takip Edilen309 Takipçiler
Roman Cabanac
Roman Cabanac@RomanCabanac·
My son will inherit this.
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Leon G. Marincowitz
Leon G. Marincowitz@LGMarincowitz·
@shanaka86 @DA_Stockman Which means 18 months from now we’ll have men with lower testosterone further contributing to the original problem of weak masculine leadership
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

Right now, in barns and equipment sheds across the American Midwest, farmers are making the most consequential decision of this war. Not generals. Not senators. Farmers. At $683 per ton urea, corn economics have collapsed. Nitrogen is the single largest input cost for corn production. At pre-war prices a farmer could justify 180 pounds per acre and expect a margin. At $683 the math breaks. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria. They do not need the molecule trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. The seed decision is being made this week across roughly 90 million acres of American cropland. Once the planter rolls into the field, the choice is irreversible. Corn seed in the ground stays corn. Soy seed stays soy. The acreage allocation locks in. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. That report will tell the world how American agriculture responded to the Hormuz blockade. But the decisions it captures are being made now, in conversations between farmers and agronomists and seed dealers who are looking at nitrogen prices and making the rational economic choice: plant the crop that does not need the input you cannot afford. Every acre that shifts from corn to soybeans tightens the corn balance sheet for the rest of the year. Corn feeds livestock. Corn feeds ethanol. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually, consuming roughly 43 percent of the US corn crop regardless of price. That demand is inelastic. If acres shift and production falls while the mandate holds, corn prices spike. Feed costs spike. The protein cascade reverses. The US cattle herd sits at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry and pork margins that were benefiting from cheap feed compress when corn crosses $5 per bushel. This is how a naval blockade 7,000 miles from Iowa reaches the American grocery shelf. Not through oil. Not through shipping. Through nitrogen. The farmer cannot afford the molecule. The molecule cannot transit the strait. The farmer plants soy instead. The corn supply tightens. The ethanol mandate consumes its fixed share. The remaining corn reprices. The feed reprices. The meat reprices. The grocery bill reprices. The decision is not political. It is arithmetic performed on a kitchen table by a person who needs to plant in three weeks and cannot wait for a ceasefire, an escort convoy, or an insurance normalisation that the Red Sea precedent says takes years. The deepest penetrator in the American arsenal cannot reach a sealed Iranian doctrinal packet. But the fertiliser price it failed to resolve is reaching every planting decision on 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. The war’s most irreversible consequence is not happening in a bunker. It is happening in a barn. And by the time USDA publishes the data on March 31, the seeds will already be in the ground. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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IMPERATOR
IMPERATOR@IMPERATORAUS·
The West is Greek Wisdom. The West is Roman Order. The West is Germanic Fervour. The West is Iberian Devotion. The West is Celtic Imagination. The West is Slavic Perseverance. The West is Christian Faith.
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Brandon Weichert
Brandon Weichert@WeTheBrandon·
Some around Trump maintain that this was always meant to be a 4 week war. In 2 weeks we will be at that stage. The implication is that he will, regardless of facts on the ground, abandon his present course of action. To me, this sounds a lot like Trump’s “2 weeks to flatten the curve” from COVID. Trump is fixated on “winning” this war. And that’s to say nothing of whatever the Iranians will want to do. What’s more likely is that Trump expands the war. Tries to land Marines along the coastline of Iran for sea control, and fails (we lack the force to achieve this mission). There’s the added problem that Iran doesn’t have to engage in a ground war necessarily. They can just deploy any number of their 88,000 strong drones or missile swarms to knock any US foothold of their coastline out. Meanwhile, the US stockpiles for key interceptors are basically gone. Israeli interceptors are depleted. Arab states about to lose theirs any moment. Iran has at least 18-24 months of missiles remaining in its arsenal. This is a strategic defeat for the United States, especially since Trump seems so committed to his REGIME CHANGE + UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER formula for victory. A recent US intelligence report, per the Washington Post, states plainly that the regime in Iran is unlikely to collapse and has become hardened as a direct result of the US and Israeli air war. And the longer the war goes on, the more painful it is for Americans who will be paying higher prices for everything thanks to the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is where we are.
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Humble Flow
Humble Flow@HumbleFlow·
One thing that happens as you get older is that you realize G. K. Chesterton and Hilaire Belloc were right about pretty much everything.
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Moy Miz
Moy Miz@moymiz·
The Muslim world is divided about Iran: Muslim countries in favor of removing the regime: Jordan 🇯🇴 Kuwait 🇰🇼 UAE 🇦🇪 Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 Oman 🇴🇲 Qatar 🇶🇦 Bahrain 🇧🇭 Muslim countries against the removal of the regime: Great Britain 🇬🇧 France 🇫🇷 Spain 🇪🇸
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Mike Pantile
Mike Pantile@mikepantile·
The one woman that most women won’t even try to emulate: The Blessed Virgin Mary. ANYONE but her. Deborah, though? Slay queen. Esther, though? Slaay queen. The Blessed Virgin Mary? Crickets. Feminism is cancer.
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Leon G. Marincowitz
Leon G. Marincowitz@LGMarincowitz·
The typical floundering end to a potentially great presidential term. Another war, exactly what you promised not to do. The end of the third American Republic is here. New world everyone
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

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