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Enjoyed this conversation with @jameshohmann on @themimsshow on the uncanny parallels playing out on the left as the establishment begins to lose its grip.
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Liam Donovan
172.1K posts
Liam Donovan
@LPDonovan
Politics. Hoyas. YMMV. Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TargetedVictory
VA Katılım Haziran 2009
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Relevant to @LPDonovan’s interest.
instagram.com/reel/DbBkI6ISC…
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@MarkHalperin I think if you're a sitting member of the house and take on the wh political operation you take on some risk, even in a free roll situation
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Does someone running against her in the special primary while still staying on the ballot for a House seat constitute someone with "nothing to lose"?
Liam Donovan@LPDonovan
@MarkHalperin Schroedinger's special--she could be beaten in a normal primary but who wants to run and test the proposition? Likely a bunch of people with nothing to lose, which at once lowers the bar for her along with the caliber of the alternative.
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@MarkHalperin Schroedinger's special--she could be beaten in a normal primary but who wants to run and test the proposition? Likely a bunch of people with nothing to lose, which at once lowers the bar for her along with the caliber of the alternative.
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Is it even possible to devise a strategy to beat her in the primary or runoff?
Next Up with Mark Halperin@NextUpHalperin
Breaking: Darline Graham says she WILL run to permanently replace Lindsey Graham as South Carolina Senator this November 🚨
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BTW this would make AI more popular nationally than any politician currently in office
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@Politics_Reply @StevenJDuffield It created a sense of, if not betrayal, disillusionment by the broader electorate, which did not believe it signed up for that. The left isn't why Trump won except insofar as there was a marginal horseshoe voter who liked Tulsi/RFK.
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@LPDonovan @StevenJDuffield Yeah but the GOP put itself in that position largely because of the betrayal they felt by W’s lefty policies on immigration and forever war blunders - how did leftwing governing by Biden create a sense of betrayal on the left?
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Actually you can quite easily and within that synthesis resides the closest thing you'll find to reality.
Rowan Fornow 🚵🚉🏙️🦣🇵🇸@rowanfornow
Biden was either "the most progressive president in history and progressives still got mad" OR "Biden ran to the center and that's why he won," you can't have both
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@chrislhayes Just mean 1/6 chance of Rs holding serve is far more likely than a CW in which it's largely unthinkable. Meanwhile 44% Dem sweep (~46% Dem senate overall) totally passes the eye test. It's the former where the otherwise modal split gets squeezed.
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@LPDonovan On the house side, if you start a game up 8-10 points, it's definitely not crazy to think you'll win! I think it's totally a possibility.
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A little goofy, but downstream from question of Senate control. If you are convicted that Dems will win the senate, which is a very popular position these days, that implies a sweep, so 44% tracks. What likely throws the split off is 16% R sweep, which CW doesn't take seriously.
Chris Cillizza@ChrisCillizza
Here's an odd one (to me): Odds on @polymarket of Dems sweeping House and Senate are HIGHER than odds of split control. Split control -- given the states Dems have to win in Senate -- seems to me MUCH more likely (NOTE: Polymarket is a sponsor of my content. But I use their markets all the time anyway!) polymarket.com/event/balance-…
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Reconciliation 4.0? You know what that means? Just two more after that and they get... EGGROLL!
Emily Brooks@emilybrooksnews
House GOP floats reconciliation 4.0 amid disappointment at 3.0 plan “No one thought we could get to reconciliation 3.0, and we think we’re going to get through it. And then all of a sudden, now we’re talking about reconciliation 4.0,” House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain (Mich.) told me at the Hill Nation Summit last week. “I’m just giving you a little teaser on that,” McClain said, “because we do have to deal with the waste, the fraud, the abuse, the offsets … all of that stuff.” thehill.com/homenews/house…
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Think it's still true on its face--he won the nom because he was seen as the centrist and then he lost the plot and tried to be FDR 2.0. (He won the general, barely, chiefly because he was the alternative to DJT, but at least in part because he was still viewed as a non-threatening Dem.)
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@StevenJDuffield No True Progressive/Conservative (similar to what GOP base told itself from 2008-2015)
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@LPDonovan Yet I keep telling fellow Rs that they should never underestimate the extent to which base Democrats do *not* believe Biden governed as a progressive. Many think the bills that enrage Rs failed to provide true structural reforms, and amounted to "just money."
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Liam Donovan retweetledi
Forcing the entire world elite to come to the Meadowlands *New Jersey* to observe THEIR sport’s pinnacle is low key a power move we should make permanent
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@ReubenR80027912 And it's self-reinforcing. If neither side can manage to win to overwhelmingly that they are substantially overexposed, far less risk of giving it all back and then some.
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As I’ve said: the era of wave midterms is over. Ds still have a good environment & more reliable voters as their base, but structurally, present coalitions are so entrenched that you can’t get 2018
I’d also note that Trump was still all consuming in ‘18, now ppl are innured
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
Post-Ipsos: Mixed signals for Dems vs 2018 blue wave. Generic Ballot 2018: Dems +10 2026: Dems +3 —— Enthusiastic Edge 2018: Dems +2 2026: Dems +10 "Despite Trump’s unpopularity, GOP isn’t losing badly on generic ballot. Their base lacks energy, but redistricting + fixes on gas/Iran could help them hold the House"
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Liam Donovan retweetledi
Environmental groups are trying to stay "relevant" by blocking data centers.
"it is easier to mobilize communities to block something than it is to build something."
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@AJentleson There's no forgiving working for history's greatest monster, Bruce Rauner
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It does not seem like the facts of this case justify this behavior from Duckworth. What is going on here?
Ian Moskowitz@IAMoskowitz
"Too many of our heroes lost their lives under @nirav_maine's watch as Illinois Public Health Director. I called for his resignation then, and I strongly oppose his run for Senate now" - @TammyDuckworth bangordailynews.com/2026/07/10/pol…
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@coachvarano In the end you figure out the ash and trash and anomalies Dems need to vote for it and it passes on suspension.
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We all know it'll end up here as it always does, so it will be interesting to see if the early acknowledgement helps expedite the inevitable.
Jake Sherman@JakeSherman
CR IS OUT. 15 pages. extends govt funding until 12/4 punchbowl.news/fy-2027_xml/
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