Micky Lambo (unsupervised) 🇺🇸

33K posts

Micky Lambo (unsupervised) 🇺🇸

Micky Lambo (unsupervised) 🇺🇸

@LamboMicky

Cheap to those that can afford it very expensive to those who can’t

Katılım Nisan 2022
455 Takip Edilen848 Takipçiler
Zara Hussain
Zara Hussain@zarahussain999·
More than half million protest in London for Palestine 🇵🇸 A peaceful protest compared to the aggressive far right flag cult protest.
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PerseusSlade
PerseusSlade@PerseusSlade·
@zarahussain999 These marches have little to do about Palestine and a lot to do about promoting Islam.
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Tom Nash
Tom Nash@iamtomnash·
Thailand has some of the most incredible nature I have ever seen
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Micky Lambo (unsupervised) 🇺🇸 retweetledi
General™️
General™️@TheGeneral_0·
This is called Liberal Privilege. Sunny Hostin uses her liberal privilege to try and get her son off the hook.
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The Assembly
The Assembly@InTheAssembly·
Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund is down ~$40 million on its SpaceX $SPCX holdings.
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Chief Nerd
Chief Nerd@TheChiefNerd·
🚨 Mayor Mamdani Says He is Considering Arresting Bibi Netanyahu If He Visits NYC “I believe that PM Netanyahu belongs in the Hague. He's a war criminal … There is an active conversation with our legal department in seeing what the prospects are we have here in our Municipality.”
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Thomas Kralow
Thomas Kralow@TKralow·
Tate brothers arrested in Miami. Thats bad news for them. UK extradition is here after all. Realistic timeline: 6-24 months fighting extradition in USA with no bail. Most likely will lose. Marshalls wouldn’t come empty handed. Then years fighting in UK + conviction if any.
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Max Prime
Max Prime@MatrixPrime_·
ANDREW TATE and TRISTAN TATE We're just arrested in Miami
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amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
$GRAB This will be a long post and dive into many things including Grab's stock performance, some updated thoughts on my Grab thesis after having visited Southeast Asia last month, and new models for valuation. Let's get into it. First off, it's obvious that the stock has not performed in the way that most would like since I first initiated coverage, which was at $4.50. The stock is currently at $3.57, so it is down 20% in the 1.5 years since I laid out my thesis. I think there are many reasons for this but the common theme behind these reasons are less about the fundamentals and more about the macro. It sucks to say that because it would imply that larger forces have played a role outside of the business's execution, but I do think that has happened and unfortunately has made the investment, so far, unsuccessful. Two major macro disruptions hurt grab: the price of oil skyrocketing and the violent shift to AI stocks. On the price of oil, the company actually has weathered the storm very nicely if you look at their latest earnings, but the sentiment around companies in a region that is prone to oil price risk has been very bad. On AI, this is something that I quite frankly just didn't see coming. $UBER is an exceptional business and in my opinion undervalued, but the overhang of robotaxis has led the stock to not do much. The intensity of the AI buildout that began in early 2025 meant that capital was rotating and Grab wouldn't play a role in that infra cap-ex trade which meant it would be prone to be stuck. I can't even blame the market here, why invest in a company that is growing 25% when you can pick memory names or neoclouds growing 500%? Having said that, the fundamentals of the business have only gotten better. I know that in this market environment, if you can't get 20% ROI in a week then your stock is failure, but if we are being a bit more realistic...things take time. HOOD took time. PLTR took time. Not every name explodes because of a datacenter contract and I believe that has given some people unrealistic expectations. Regardless, an opportunity cost is an opportunity cost and if the stock price is the basis for judgement, then the investment has not fully played out yet. Thankfully, my time horizon is greater than 1.5 years. I did have calls on GRAB in addition to shares for Jan 2027 and if there is not a meaningful change over the coming months, those calls will be worth nothing. That is the game -- if you take a risk with options, you have to be ready for the downside. Second, my experience in Southeast Asia. I visited Singapore and basically used GRAB every single day, multiple times a day. My initial thesis was based on a simple idea: compounding earnings growth while consolidating market share within the region. Being able to build the superapp that can grow users would allow upsells and as margins expand, so would operating leverage, which would elevate the company's value. Nothing in my personal experience changed that thesis and if anything, actually witnessing how intense the product was in the region strengthened my conviction. In order to deal with competition in the region, Grab either has to expand or offer better deals to out compete. With 50M+ MAU, I believe they have still under penetrated the region and have a significant runway of growth to go in order to achieve these goals. Ultimately, many of the competitors in the region are burning cash and can't produce a profit. Eventually, I believe that marketshare continues to consolidate and the one left standing should be able to benefit the most. Third, valuation. So, I have updated my models and assumptions based on Q1 numbers. I believe the conservative, fair intrinsic value for the name is at $7.50 which is why I continue to own shares. Q1 2026: Revenue guidance: $4.04-4.10B (+20-22%) Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $700-720M (+40%+) Q1 revenue: $955M (+24% YoY) Q1 Adjusted EBITDA: $154M (+46% YoY) Loan book: $1.44B (+130% YoY) Financial Services approaching EBITDA breakeven Ongoing $400M accelerated share repurchase Net cash balance remains one of the strongest in internet/platform companies For 2027, I would use deliberately conservative assumptions across all three scenarios. In the bear case, Grab grows revenue by 15% to approximately $4.7 billion and reaches a 19% adjusted EBITDA margin, producing roughly $900 million of adjusted EBITDA. In the base case, revenue grows by 18% to about $4.85 billion, while the adjusted EBITDA margin expands to 22%, resulting in approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA. In the bull case, revenue grows by 22% to around $5.0 billion and the adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 25%, generating about $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA. These projections assume only moderate operating leverage, even though Grab has recently been expanding profitability faster than revenue. For valuation, I would apply an 18x adjusted EBITDA multiple in the bear case, a 24x multiple in the base case, and a 28x multiple in the bull case. Grab should trade at some discount to larger global platforms because of its geographic concentration in Southeast Asia and the risks associated with emerging markets. However, that discount is partly offset by Grab’s leading regional position, improving margins, financial-services growth, strong balance sheet, advertising opportunity, and continued share repurchases. In the bear case, applying an 18x multiple to $900 million of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of approximately $16.2 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would be about $21.2 billion. Using approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares outstanding, that implies a value of roughly $5.25 per share, with a reasonable bear-case range of approximately $5.25 to $5.75. In the base case, applying a 24x multiple to approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of about $25.7 billion. Adding roughly $5 billion of net cash results in an equity value of approximately $30.7 billion. Based on approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares, the implied value is around $7.55 per share. That supports a base-case valuation range of approximately $7.50 to $8.25 per share. In the bull case, applying a 28x multiple to $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA results in an enterprise value of approximately $35 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would reach about $40 billion. Dividing that by approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares produces an implied value of roughly $9.90 per share, supporting a bull-case range of approximately $9.75 to $11.00. My preferred valuation framework therefore produces a bear case of $5.25 to $5.75 per share, a base case of $7.50 to $8.25 per share, and a bull case of $9.75 to $11.00 per share. The base case does not require aggressive assumptions. It only assumes that Grab continues growing at a healthy but moderating rate, improves margins as the business scales, and receives a valuation multiple that remains below many higher-growth global technology and marketplace companies. A valuation of $8.50 per share is also defensible without relying on an extreme bull case. One path would be for Grab to generate roughly $5 billion of revenue and achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23% to 24%, producing approximately $1.15 billion of adjusted EBITDA. At a 24x multiple, that would imply an enterprise value of roughly $27.6 billion. Adding approximately $5 billion of net cash would produce an equity value of around $32.6 billion, or approximately $8.05 per share before factoring in additional share repurchases or stronger cash generation. A slightly higher EBITDA result, a modestly higher multiple, or a lower diluted share count could push the valuation into the $8.50 range. Another path to $8.50 would be a moderate valuation rerating. If Grab generates approximately $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and trades at 26x adjusted EBITDA rather than 24x, its enterprise value would be approximately $28.6 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, the equity value would be about $33.6 billion, which translates to approximately $8.30 per share using 4.05 billion diluted shares. Additional buybacks, higher net cash, or slightly stronger earnings could bring the implied value closer to $8.50 to $9.00 per share. The market may also be underestimating Grab because it is still often viewed primarily as a ride-hailing and food-delivery company. In reality, Grab is developing several potential profit engines. Mobility can continue generating strong margins and cash flow, delivery benefits from greater scale and operational efficiency, financial services could become a meaningful earnings contributor as the loan book grows, and advertising remains relatively early in its development. At the same time, artificial intelligence and automation may improve driver utilization, merchant performance, customer targeting, and corporate efficiency. In all of these scenarios, I am also not anticipating revenue growth of 30% or above. This is the wild card, given the company is expanding to Taiwan and has a host of new initiatives that they have been getting into with M&A, if they can reaccelerate to 30%+, it changes all assumptions and could further lead to a rerating. Overall, I would view approximately $7.50 as a conservative base-case intrinsic value if Grab simply executes on its current trajectory. A value closer to $8.50 is reasonable if the company delivers modest upside to current expectations, continues expanding margins, repurchases shares, and receives even a small valuation rerating from the market. So, those are my updated thoughts. Some have asked why I don't talk about the name everyday, it's simple: there isn't much to discuss. The name is stuck based on the market's lack of interest which is why I think the discount has become so intense. I continue to hold and until I feel the thesis changes dramatically, if it doesn't, then I will continue to engage in the most boring part of investing: being patient and trusting a thesis can play out.
amit tweet media
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Mike
Mike@MikeLongTerm·
The sad thing is, $GRAB will get 30%+ growth soon and most retails wouldnt care, and short sellers will take short interest to ATH and ATH. $GRAB will use some of its powerful Cash position and FCF to acquire more regions from $UBER after it acquires Delivery Hero, most likely taking it over 1B-1.2B people TAM. Uber is also likely to pullback Delivery Hero competition in Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Cambodia, Myanmar to focus on European & Middle East Market. Retail and Institutions have been chasing AI stocks, particularly the bottleneck bros stocks(Tiny-Small cap), where many did not have real growth but price action ran ahead x5-20 until recently. Financial Condition is likely to tighten more on a global scale, and that is why we are seeing selloffs on speculative stocks. I added $GRAB and brought my average down greatly, and will continue to hold long term. Sentiment will change, just like in March- Sept 2025, Fundamental is much stronger today than March-Sept 2025. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
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Jay Gatling
Jay Gatling@apinionsvary·
SUNNY HOSTIN: "NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW… EXCEPT MY HARVARD GRAD SON" On The View (reacting to President Trump’s indictment), Sunny Hostin declares: “No one is above the law.” Caught on bodycam (first on the phone with police, then in person when she arrived) after her son was stopped for trespassing on active Metro-North tracks: “My name is Sunny Hostin and I’m one of the co-hosts of ‘The View’ and I’m a former federal prosecutor.” “That’s my son. He’s a Harvard graduate, he doesn’t have a criminal record.” “I’m a former federal prosecutor. He knows. He’s a Harvard grad who teaches 4th grade geometry to South Bronx kids… He’s not a kid who’s ever in trouble. It’s an innocent mistake.” Rules for thee, not for me - especially when she’s the one constantly railing against “privilege” while invoking her celebrity status, legal background, and her son’s Harvard credentials to try to get special treatment.
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Collin Rugg
Collin Rugg@CollinRugg·
NEW: The View’s Sunny Hostin seen using her privilege to try to get her son out of trouble for trespassing, tells police she is a “former federal prosecutor.” “My name is Sunny Hostin… and I’m a former federal prosecutor,” Hostin said while telling police her son went to Harvard. The host used her elitist privilege to try to get her son out of trouble after he was busted trespassing along Metro-North Railroad tracks in Westchester County. “That’s my son. He’s a Harvard graduate, he doesn’t have a criminal record.” 24-year-old Gabriel Hostin claims he was jogging when he saw that the gate near the tracks was open. He was hit with a trespass violation for what can be an arrestable offense, according to the New York Post. Hostin has been known to shame others for their “white privilege.” Remarkable.
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Tom Nash
Tom Nash@iamtomnash·
Operation dumbo drop continues on vacation 🔥 no days off
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TJTheWheelDeal
TJTheWheelDeal@TJTheWheelDeal·
@LamboMicky Bc that’s a lot cheaper than $74. The idea is to accumulate stocks as cheap as possible.
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TJTheWheelDeal
TJTheWheelDeal@TJTheWheelDeal·
Started this position on $NFLX right before earnings. Was hoping it would dip a lot more. Unless it drops to the $50’s I don’t see how we will be able to build out this position. Booooo
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DarkMiner
DarkMiner@DarkMiner·
Paradise with the family this weekend. Always good to get some camping & golf in
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Mizzi2026
Mizzi2026@stevepfi2·
@_InfoGram_ Zohran Mamdani is an American hero. 👏👏👏👏 Donald Trump is an American villain. 🤮
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InfoGram
InfoGram@_InfoGram_·
🇮🇱Netanyahu: "I’m visiting the United States." 🇺🇸Mamdani: "If he comes here, we arrest him for war crimes. Immediately." 🔥👏 Zohran Mamdani is fire. He is the most popular leader in United States because of his spine 💪
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