BestLoser

@OxyPredicts @EpochAIResearch @EpsilonPM You're welcome, I often see your great insights

@LanFanTK @EpochAIResearch @EpsilonPM Thanks so much!!

We are conducting an AI-assisted review of FrontierMath: Tiers 1-4. This has flagged fatal errors in about a third of problems, and we believe most of these flags to be valid. We will release updated scores on a corrected dataset after completing a thorough human review.

@tomdnc I've noticed you're really sharp; you always manage to find interesting pieces of information

Polymarket may be donating millions of dollars to users for free, and nobody is talking about it... Let me explain. I came across a suspicious bot account today on Polymarket that I have been theorising has been set up by Polymarket themselves to donate to users. Why do I believe this? Although I don't have any direct proof and this is pure speculation, this account seems to be taking orders from every single market on the site, doing thousands of transactions daily. Since the beginning, it has consistently lost every single day, losing $540k PnL and an additional $70k in fees. It has participated in over 50k market now. I have personally been the counterparty of this bot many time, taking thousands of dollars from him, potentially 5 figures. Now, this may just be a giga degen, but I can't imagine someone being this dumb to lose so much and continue running their bot with no change. We know Polymarket has been super generous recently, randomly dumping 2mil in rewards for sports market, along with many other events. Let me know what you guys think? Is it a degen, or is Poly really making the playing field even easier for us?

@predict_anon 在任何市场，对附加手续费毫不在意的，基本上是输的较多的那群人

#polymarket 这个账号真好玩， 每天稳定亏20k 如果你知道他是什么账号， 你会发现更有意思 🧐 我看了下链上记录 ， 资金是从gate里转出来的： 所以这个账号大概率就是gate交易所用来接入poly的账号 这个账号很有观察意义， 非常纯粹的retail flow， 韭菜度拉满了； 来自这些账号的订单就是预测市场赚钱的根源。

@EpsilonPM In a normal market, it is impossible to buy again after redeeming; however, due to an anomalous bug， in this specific market, API users can redeem directly, while regular UI users cannot settle and can only buy or sell.

@EpsilonPM This market is not only tradeable, but can also be traded while it is being settled. Someone has risk-free washed millions in volume. I reported this issue yesterday, but Polymarket has not given me a response: x.com/LanFanTK/statu…

Polymarket will remove the affiliate badge of slop posters, but while @CarOnPolymarket performs dozenth pump & dump, he is still affiliated with the platform. Here is him trying to get people to buy into a market that has already resolved, but due to a bug is still tradeable.

This is the URL of the anomalous user: @tourists?tab=activity" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@tourists?tab=…

@PolymarketDevs @devjoshstevens @mustafap0ly

@prophet_notes There was no notification on the main market, and no one is obligated to go to Discord to check for announcements

I woke up to see Russia x Ukraine ceasefire markets resolved to Yes. Something I didn't really expect, even though I held a small amount of Yes shares I bought weeks ago for an entirely different reason. Precedents, spirit of the market, and the rules themselves were clear that short-term truces / humanitarian pauses wouldn't count. The market was specifically created to forecast a ceasefire related to a negotiated end of the war. It could have been a 30 day ceasefire, during which negotiations for peace are taking place. It could have been an indefinite ceasefire, aka a peace deal. The key here is the intent to end the war. The 3 day ceasefire announced hours ago didn't meet any of the criteria for a Yes resolution. There is no intent to end the war during the ceasefire time. There are no final negotiations taking place. In fact, as far as we know, there is no meeting taking place between Ukraine / US and Russia. Additionally, for reasons that for now are beyond me, the markets were effectively halted with no prior information, before a clarification had been issued. Many traders and market makers were trapped holding shares they didn't intend to hold until the resolution. Too much has happened now to find a perfect solution. But at the very least, we need a serious explanation from the Polymarket team. This is the first time the market has been resolved against precedent, making trading on the platform suddenly exponentially more risky. Refunds for No holders are also entirely justified. And ultimately, after years of complaints, it's time to fix the rules and resolutions system. We've lived through many absurd decisions and resolutions, but one thing was always certain - the markets cannot resolve against precedent. Now, with this axiom no longer holding, there is really no way to understand how the market will resolve going forward. This was one of the biggest markets on the platform, and the most consequential one. It was the basis for all other ceasefire markets. It was a forecast on the arguably the most important global event currently unfolding. If not properly addressed, the consequences for Polymarket and the wider prediction markets community and industry could be tragic.

@recouso These good days will last for 10 years at most; Europe has almost exhausted its legacy.

Okay guys, had a few cultural shocks in Spain: > Go to the gym, opens 10am on a Sunday > Go to work from a coworking, closed > Go to a coffee shop, no wifi Absolutely unthinkable in a barely productive economy like the US, yet alone UAE. Europe is a daylight museum.

@jonkarl Alzheimer's.

And another update: A senior US official tells ABC News that VP Vance is going to Islamabad and will be leading the US delegation

President Trump just told me Vance will not be going to Islamabad. He said the issue is security — the Secret Service couldn’t do it on 24 hours notice. “It’s only because of security,” he told me. “JD’s great.”

@TheVeryLucky888 @Polymarket Also, I have to say — you’re seriously an underrated gem of a creator.

@Polymarket just quietly changed their fee structure? Formula was: fee = C × p × feeRate × p × (1 - p) Now its: fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 - p) Fees just got bigger by a factor of 1/p ! Enormous difference. Baffled that this wasn't made clearer. 50c share is now costs roughly 50.76c, before it was 50.38

@TheVeryLucky888 @Polymarket They messed it up. If they had been following you and seen your post, all of this could have been avoided：x.com/BrokieTrades/s…

@Domahhhh Unreasonable rules turn fun games into something ugly and massive (in trading volume)

The Mis-Anthropic World. A shocking discovery, but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own. In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature, scientists have announced Planet K. Planet K is invisible to the human eye, and yet it exists close enough to access our world wide web. They've used that access to create a site called Kalshi. Scientists have demonstrated its likely existence through an instrument that detects the radiowaves of a series of inexplicable, unbelievable, and incredibly stupid rule cuck particles colliding with Earth. Some readings of these cuck particles, according to Table 2.8 in the paper, are "off the fucking charts." I reached out to one of the coauthors, and he said to me only one thing, "Listen son, there's no other scientific explanation for all this bullshit." NOW, I should responsibly mention that the other competing theory (one that I don't subscribe to anymore) is that Kalshi is okay with jerking their own customers around with fine print nonsense over and over again, costing their users millions of dollars for no reason, while generating fees in the process. That is possible! But it's not the likely scenario anymore. It's too far-fetched. Why would a company do that over and over again? No, the likely, science-based scenario is that there's a hidden, alien world called Planet K that uses our internet. Time and again, Kalshi has ruled against our perception of reality and in favor of made-up nonsense from their bonkers home world. Let's go over the newest example: The AI company Anthropic bought a Super Bowl ad. Unfortunately, as you'll find out, the ad only airs on Earth. Anthropic's ad buy made major headlines across the world (not only because of the ad itself, but also the content of the ad punches ChatGPT in the face). If you google Anthropic super bowl ad, you will probably get 1000+ news stories about this. In a straight forward, alternative prediction market on the exact same event, the odds of an Anthropic ad went from 60% chance to a high 90s chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl after the news was released. The odds sit at 99% rn, and there's no hint of drama. In the Kalshi market, Anthropic went from a 60% chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl to >90% chance after the news...............and then down to sub-10% after Kalshi brought down their Planet K-forged hammer. So, what happened here? (It trades at 16% rn, but we'll get back to that) Strap in for some esoteric, annoying nonsense from another world. Here are the rules under the contract: "If Anthropic airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes." OK, perfect, so it's definitely YES! Very straight forward! Wait! But hang on, we're extra diligent and see if the word "qualifying" has a catch. Let's delve into the fine print PDF rules that we're going to download: "The Underlying for this Contract is whether BRAND [Anthropic] purchases and airs an advertisement during the YEAR [2026] Super Bowl broadcast." OK, perfect! It's definitely YES there, too! Anthropic bought and is going to air an advertisement! Straight forward. Thanks Kalshi! But hang on again...if you stopped reading there, you're screwed. Because lurking in the bowels of the fine print (a lengthy PDF) is another rule further defining their term "BRAND" with the following clause: "Parent company advertisements that do not specifically feature or mention BRAND do not qualify." The ad is about Anthropic's AI model Claude, Anthropic's only product-line (or, at least, Claude represents 99.99% of Anthropic's products). The ad does not use Anthropic's logo or use the word Anthropic. It instead talks about Claude, Anthropic's product. Therefore, according to a Kalshi ruling made yesterday afternoon -- in line with the bowels of their fine print -- the ad that will allegedly air (released in full already) will resolve in a NO. You had to have a PhD in Prediction Markets in order to go that far down into the rules looking for 'cucks' and then be able to put 2 and 2 together. [I should mention that your author could see the clarification train coming down the tracks and profited off of it to around $8k, but your author also yelled at them for hours to pause the contract and contain the Chernobyl-esque radioactivity that has now turned into a meltdown event]. So what is the net effect of this? Few bucks lost? Just a small ad market on Kalshi? A dumb and cute rule fight that we can dress up in colorful doll clothes? Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh. This market has seen its volume explode as new player after new player continues to board the roller coaster to hell, sometimes incinerating $10k+ in single clicks. It's a never-ending cycle of money incineration: new players are seeing news stories that Anthropic is advertising in the Super Bowl, clicking onto Kalshi, and buying tons of shares over and over again. Many veteran players, who saw Kalshi's ruling and realizing its a nearly-guaranteed win, are trying to buy as much No as they can, but they can't keep up with the demand. So the price keeps rising. From 6c after the clarification, to 8c, to 10c, to 12, to 14c, to 16c, etc. This market is almost 50% bigger than the rest of their Super Bowl ad markets combined. It's reached $10m in volume, with $2.7m in open interest. And rising. Fees generated are in the hundreds of thousands. Based on the average purchase price of yes shares, it's likely that 'new' traders will lose north of $1m because of this market. Could be $2m by the end. Plus in another sad twist, EVEN IF new players knew that a clarification existed, it's unclear if they would be able to parse Kalshi's vertigo-inducing announcement which they posted in all-caps yesterday underneath the market: "THIS MARKET RESOLVES BASED ON THE PARTICULAR BRAND, COMPANY, PRODUCT OR SERVICE LISTED BEING SPECIFICALLY ADVERTISED. IT DOES NOT RESOLVE BASED ON WHETHER THERE ARE ADVERTISEMENTS FOR BRANDS, COMPANIES, PRODUCTS, OR SERVICES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH, OR OWNED BY, THE TARGETED STRIKE. IT IS TITLED, "WHICH BRANDS WILL ADVERTISE DURING THE BIG GAME?" TO BE CLEAR, IF THE LISTED MARKET IS A PARENT COMPANY (E.G. "ANTHROPIC") AND ONE OF THEIR BRANDS OR PRODUCTS IS IDENTIFIED IN AN OTHERWISE QUALIFYING ADVERTISEMENT (E.G. "CLAUDE"), BUT THE ADVERTISEMENT DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY SPECIFICALLY LISTED STRIKE, THE MARKET WILL RESOLVE TO NO." You can say that the paragraph contains words that are in the english language, but I think that's about it. It's unreadable to a normal person! I can barely understand it, and I know what they're trying to say. But forget all of that. What is the point of all of this?Why does this market exist in the first place at all? Because prediction markets are about predicting the future. Is Anthropic going to advertise in the Super Bowl is a straight forward question!!! And the answer does not need to be that complicated. So when users predict an event like Anthropic advertising in the Super Bowl, and then Anthropic advertises in the Super Bowl, there should be an extremely, extremely, extremely good reason to totally rip asunder that relationship between a market and reality. Was it a good reason? No. Kalshi created a trap market here: Anthropic was unlikely to advertise "Anthropic"! They were always going to advertise their only real product line: Claude! It was a bad strike, exarcebated by the fact that Kalshi was very slow to clarify after the ad came out. So users who didn't understand the fight continued to bet money on yes as it traded in the 60s, 70s, and 80s before the clarification hammer came down and rendered their shares nearly-worthless. And even still, right this second, many traders probably don't know that the clarification exists -- even after it was made! -- because how or why would they know that...? It's a large-scale money incineration event where Kalshi receives fees, and money rolls uphill from noobs to veterans. That is bad on any planet. (In the next post, I'll briefly highlight another few examples of this fine print alternate reality that Kalshi has cultivated.)

@holy_moses7 @Nekt_0 Just like large language models, stupid models often have an extremely short memory span

@Nekt_0 A month ago you advised the exact opposite

We profit from Elon Musk's unpredictability. The strategy is absolutely simple and profitable. Buy the most unexpected result of the number of tweets Betting price range: $1c-20c (most trades are up to $1c) Stop loss is very close to the entry point, 2-4c loss. Take profit is either up to 100c or 2x, focus on the timer's end time and the tweets that have already been made. Elon Musk often either takes long breaks without tweeting or spams a lot of tweets.

@chrund1e @Art14Work @RookeBrollins @shayne_coplan This was a post from someone else at the time x.com/PolymarketCN/s…

@LanFanTK @Art14Work @RookeBrollins @shayne_coplan Which market?

Today i LOST 2555$ because of @Polymarket glitch I originally put an order to buy 333 NO shares at 61.5c for Elon 460-479 posts. I was quite surprised to wake up in a middle of the night and find out that i own 7604 Yes shares. Here on a screen you can see that i’m not crazy

@chrund1e @Art14Work @RookeBrollins @shayne_coplan polymarket.com/event/what-pri…

@chrund1e @Art14Work @RookeBrollins @shayne_coplan I sold my position at a price above 45. The trade record showed up in my history at the time, but when I checked again 1–2 hours later, my position was still there and the trade record had disappeared. Around that time, I also checked X and saw other people reporting the same iss

@bbk6566 GOAT

Congrats to everyone who believed! 🥳 Still confident that the numbers and player data was proof how mis-priced the market was. Expedition did not deserve 80%+ odds