anon

Ha ha, yes, I often doubt my strategy during the volatility of my sports strategy. In the worst case, I retraced 50% of my profits, or I've been losing money for half a month straight. However, when I eventually come back to analyze the statistics, the profit/volume of sports betting is far greater than that of crypto.

Sports variance isn't for the faint of heart, feels very different to other stuff on Polymarket where it is very clear very fast that you either have edge or you don't. I am still questioning if my underlying trading is profitable without rebates+liquidity rewards

@hz2049 polymarket最近一笔融资， 貌似就是要推进polymarket us直接用polymarket global的市场

@predict_anon 什么时候美国的流动性能进来就爽了

#polymarket 这个账号真好玩， 每天稳定亏20k 如果你知道他是什么账号， 你会发现更有意思 🧐 我看了下链上记录 ， 资金是从gate里转出来的： 所以这个账号大概率就是gate交易所用来接入poly的账号 这个账号很有观察意义， 非常纯粹的retail flow， 韭菜度拉满了； 来自这些账号的订单就是预测市场赚钱的根源。

@0xDune0104 anon是匿名账号的意思， 这个不是我😂

@predict_anon 好久不见，大佬，最近没玩了吗？

@LanFanTK 额外说下， gate这个其实用作低频交易挺好用的， 稍微付费也可以接受， 提供了一个在交易所账户直接用usdt来交易的方式

@predict_anon 在任何市场，对附加手续费毫不在意的，基本上是输的较多的那群人

@love_u_4ever @Polymarket 没看到我，说明你的策略是livemarket😏

当我发现我在 @Polymarket 的maker trades的对手盘是这些账户

@wlfi44 就是error日志， 如果请求有请求因为网络出错或者api返回错误代码，会打日志； 你这个出问题应该是说延迟问题吧

@predict_anon 早上6点-8点间出问题了.你这什么统计?

#polymarket 震惊了， 第一次4小时内没有ERROR日志 这意味着我几十个bot在4小时访问polymarket 下单/取消订单/获取库存/获取orderbook/data和gamma api 一次出错都没有， 包括网络出错 🧐难道真的要进步了？

@Solater888 😮‍💨那可能就是重启后的暂时性稳定

@predict_anon 5h前pm还宕机了十几分钟呢😂

My maker-bot's main trading volume occurs just before the market ends, and I'm fully aware of that. Most manipulation happens more than 5 seconds before the market closes (of course, there are also a small number of last-seconds reversals, but they are not common). If they suspect the other side also has manipulators, they may try to manipulate the price earlier, sometimes 10 or 20 seconds in advance. The reason for this behavior is that the cost of maintaining the price is not high; they choose when to reverse the price mainly to prevent unexpected events, rather than to save on costs. TWAP, in a way, reduces such surprises and introduces a sense of certainty for them.

@predict_anon @maxyatsuk @devjoshstevens @preddytrade u have an analysis for this or smth? from my observations manipulations tend to happen last 1-3 seconds or so, like the very latest chainlink ticks affected but this is the naked eye observation so I wonder if there are some proven results re second point agreed

Hey Josh @devjoshstevens, I’m Max, founder of @preddytrade – a trading app built on top of Polymarket. I’ve been thinking about a cleaner resolution model for 5/15m BTC markets that preserves proximity to the actual close while heavily reducing last-second manipulation. The idea is a “Fair Close Price” based on a filtered short-window TWAP. Proposed model: > Define the final resolution window as the last 20 seconds before expiry. > Sample BTC index price once per second: P = {p₁, p₂, ..., p₂₀} > Compute the median price: M = median(P) > Filter out abnormal ticks: keep pᵢ only if |pᵢ - M| / M ≤ ε (where ε could be 5–10 bps). > Let the remaining valid samples be V = {v₁, v₂, ..., vₙ} > Final resolution price: FairClose = (1 / n) · Σvᵢ This means the market is resolved by the average of valid price samples from the final 20-second window, not by one final tick. Optional recency-weighted version: FairClose = Σ(wᵢ · vᵢ) / Σwᵢ, where later samples get higher weights (e.g., wᵢ = i). This creates a close price that stays extremely near the actual terminal price, ignores one-tick wick manipulation, and requires sustained pressure to influence the outcome. Right now, a trader can influence resolution with a single aggressive move in the final second. Under this model, the attacker would need to maintain manipulated pricing across most of the 20-second window, dramatically increasing the cost and risk. Importantly, this is not a “slow TWAP” that drifts from the close – the short window keeps it behaving like a true market close, just smoothed against obvious microstructure attacks. Even the basic filtered mean solves most of the issue elegantly. I think this would significantly improve integrity and trust for short-duration crypto prediction markets. Thanks for you time. We do everything to make the Polymarket better every day. @mustafap0ly @SuhailKakar @shayne_coplan @PolymarketDevs

2. I am one of the main makers in the 5m market, and I account for about 5% of the total trading volume. Most of my volume comes from the last 60 seconds before the market ends. You can also check accounts like Boneraper, which have similar characteristics. The trading is very active during this time, and it's not the case that everyone avoids trading because they are afraid of manipulation. Using TWAP would completely ruin the this kind of trading.

@variance_lover Appreciate you laying this out. A lot of MMs are pushing for TWAP-based settlement on short-term markets would that address most of what you’re describing? And yes, open to seeing the data.

Polymarket fixed ghost fills which is good. But the market is still getting farmed in one of the most obvious ways possible. Settlement manipulation on short-term markets (especially BTC 5min) is still wide open. If you’re actually trading these markets, you’ve seen it: - Traders build large positions - Then move BTC (usually via Binance) in the final seconds - Settlement follows that move - They cash out, liquidity providers get run over This isn’t edge-case behavior, it’s consistent and repeatable. And at this point, more money has been made by manipulators running this play than by actual traders providing real liquidity. They are extracting well above 50k a day in btc 5min alone. The result: - Liquidity disappears near settlement - Serious market makers turn off during these windows - Retail sees random last-second flips and loses trust - Market quality degrades Weekends and low-liquidity periods are especially bad, sometimes borderline untradeable. One important point here: Polymarket already uses Chainlink for settlement, which aggregates multiple price feeds. But in practice, that aggregation is still heavily dominated by Binance, and Binance leads most venues. If you can move Binance a few bips at the right moment, the rest follows. That’s exactly what’s being exploited. So while the oracle design sounds robust in theory, in reality it’s still very gameable in short time windows. To be clear: this is a hard problem. But it’s also a very visible one, and there’s been little real acknowledgment or discussion around it. There are ways to mitigate it: - Investigate and ban clearly linked manipulation clusters (many are trackable on-chain) - Work with active traders already monitoring this behavior - Adjust settlement (e.g. short time-weighted averages instead of single-tick pricing) - Reduce reliance on any single venue dominating price feeds On time-weighted averages specifically: Retail often pushes back on this, but I haven’t heard a strong argument for why a short averaging window (e.g. last 30–60s) would be worse than a system that can be flipped in the final seconds. Right now, the current design is clearly exploitable. None of these fixes are perfect, but doing nothing isn’t neutral, it actively pushes liquidity out. And that’s the real issue: You can’t build durable markets if the participants providing liquidity are structurally at a disadvantage. I’ve personally tracked multiple large clusters of accounts running this strategy, including linked funding, coordinated behavior, and PnL data. Happy to share data, examples, and work through potential solutions if the team is open to engaging on this. @devjoshstevens @mustafap0ly @kakujain @PolymarketDevs @Polymarket

1. The retail communities I joined all trade in 5m markets. Most of them focus on two main things: a. trading manipulators, b. the incentive of reversing at the end of the trading session. Using TWAP just allows makers can simple describe probabilities using BS models, whileretail traders dislike those math things.

I oppose the use of TWAP. If you want to use TWAP, please create a separate market, don't disrupt the existing one. Using TWAP in a 5-minute market is meaningless and won't increase trading volume. It will also destroy the trading incentive and make it impossible for retail traders to track TWAP changes.

@poly_data fix the categories peromance please😂

What’s the most mispriced market on Polymarket right now?

😤终于结束ghost fill了， 刚看了下策略都正常可以跑了 接下来该发币了， 我们需要社区！

@poly_data 😱Please add Category Performance

The data doesn’t lie Prediction markets are taking over the industry If you’re not using Polymarket yet, you’re already behind.

@poly_data The tag PNL is no longer being updated. Could you please take a look? Also, is it possible to display the tag PNL (Category Performance) on the new platform, just like on legacy platforms?

Polymarket Analytics V2 is live Scan, analyze, and execute without leaving the platform. No more switching tools.

gpt5.5替换了opus后简直丝滑， 速度快太多了😁 anthropic老封号太恶心了， 早不看爽了， 赶紧换把 虽然claude在长任务上的表现还是更好， 但是对我没啥价值： 🤣有次让claude改一行代码，结果他给我把精度语义给变了， 一行代码亏出10wu； 自从这次以后， 我必须是让AI改一段看一段， 没跑过长任务 —— opus在这种场景下速度太慢， 改一段看一段的方法很难受 —— gpt5.5体感是opus速度的2倍以上