LANGERIUS
205.7K posts
LANGERIUS
@Langerius
founder @huntersofweb3 | degen, investor, trader, attorney, leading narratives
Katılım Haziran 2015
7.1K Takip Edilen142.5K Takipçiler
genuinely curious
can people please give their honest thoughts
would you be comfortable holding a 8-9 figure portofolio in hyperliquid, treating it as core brokerage including holding range of stocks available on the platform + crypto spot + USDC/T etc earning yield
mainly taking into consideration, security of funds, chances of losing access, gurantee of the tradfi offerings, and liquidity for that level of portfolio management
lemme know thoughts
ty
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the partnership tag is actually a positive for campaigns.
if I see you're pushing out paid content, i want to engage.
if you're fully disclosing your promotion in the tweet, i want to engage.
to put it simply, the paid partnership tag is now a flex.
let's support each other.
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More time I spend here the bigger Ethereum bull I become. I truly feel like it will be the defacto ‘internet money’ for the world. I think it checks boxes that Bitcoin is technically incapable of doing while maintaining a similar level of neutrality and decentralization that can never be replicated again by another L1.
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At a high level, everything is keying off crude prices, which are being manipulated lower as prices do not reflect the risk that still remains. Have to acknowledge the admin's proficiency in bending markets towards their will.
This is reflective of the paradigm we are in: one where markets are less free. It's a difficult setup to trade, when the desired government result and fundamentals are opposed, especially knowing the government could decisively end the whole situation on a whim. I prefer situations where government goals and market fundamentals are both aligned in the same direction. I am doing nothing here, mostly in cash. Risk of getting chopped is high.
High level read on 2026 is a difficult late cycle market, and stylistically this demands patience for high R/R spots, and grinding out quick TPs for anything else. As I already am up a lot for the year, makes it easier to sit back and be more selective.
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Equity bears are at the brink of insanity given resilience in the indices, but odds of a breakdown are increasing now.
Equities top slowly as passive flows and rotational dynamics can hold up indices for a long time. There are many structural forces rigged to push them higher, and thus it takes a lot to make them go down. Over the course of an equity bull market, buy-the-dip behavior continually gets reinforced, and the majority of capital will be controlled by adherents to this mantra. In theory, the longer prices remain coiled, the larger the move once they exit the range.
This nuke in gold suggests there are liquidity issues brewing under the surface. It feels like a preview of what is going to happen to crowded trades. My theory is the Middle East is selling gold to shore up capital, as they have lost their revenue, and have many expenses around defence. They will also need to rebuild lost energy infra, and eventually, new pipelines to reroute around Hormuz.
The buyback window is starting to close, and the sugar rush of higher-than-usual tax refunds is starting to fade. Retail has been a key marginal buyer of equities in these past weeks, and the fading of the tax refund tailwind is critical.
The market is gradually coming to terms with the fact that this conflict may last for a long time. On a conventional level, the US and Israel have completely dominated Iran, but Iran has an asymmetric edge when it comes to controlling world oil prices through Hormuz. Trump can still end it, but the issue is that the US cannot simply leave, a ceasefire with Iran must be struck in order to guarantee that Hormuz is reopened. In order to strike a ceasefire, Iran wants to see a guarantee that the US and Israel won't attack them again (at a bare minimum), and it will be difficult for the US to get Israel to agree to that. Trump is used to being able to quickly maneuver according to his whims, as he did with tariffs, but the complex interlocking physical realities of war are different.
Oil shocks often contribute to the end of bull markets, since they constrain consumer spending, hit manufacturing, and lower the ability of central banks to offer support. Indeed, the Fed came out slightly hawkish yesterday, and Powell also hinted that he may stay in his Governor seat post his role as Chair ending, which would constrain Trump's plans to unleash liquidity.
We have a stronger dollar and long duration bond yields are going up over the world, which tightens liquidity. The Middle East is tight on money now and they were the marginal bidder in many assets. In particular, they were a key funder for AI capex through their investments in the frontier labs. They've been 40-50% of recent big rounds. Remember other deep pockets like Softbank are close to being tapped out. Any dollar that goes into these rounds will have to come out of something else, like liquid stocks (look at my pinned post for this broader thesis). And if we have any signs of risk to AI capex expectations, this will be a major shift that the market needs to contemplate.
I've said this before, but puts are a difficult way to express bearish equity views because timing is so uncertain. Equities can hold on for a long time, because they are structurally rigged to go higher. Easier expressions are simply being in cash, or gradually shorting cash stocks over time, which helps avoid getting chopped. This is a very difficult market, stay safe out there.
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