Larp Capital

@mewn21 Mewny, that's a name I haven't seen since peak DeFi days in 21 Welcome back ser

@sershokunin @tradexyz @sershokunin 🐐 One request - more listings Let us long all the random Asian and European stonks mentioned by @aleabitoreddit and @citrini

Price discovery happens on @tradexyz

@saliencexbt 🫡

@saliencexbt ?

@0xSisyphus I know a guy that unironically thought $MU was shares of Manchester United, and longed each time they won a game He probably outperformed all of us

If you are new to stock markets from crypto i would note that stocks, outside of retarded scams, are positive sum Crypto, excluding hyperliquid, is at best zero sum and typically negative sum for coins with VCs It requires a slightly different mindset to make money

I wasn't referring to BTC tho, BTC will be fine in the long term whatever ultimately happens with Saylor But the entire complex of products MSTR has built, when simplified to their core, rely on the underlying thesis that the BTC CAGR can justify their existence in perpetuity, so him being forced to sell BTC to backstop them would essentially invalidate their raisin d'etre

No it’s not People can see what the reason is for - strc issuance is 6.3bn. For argument sake if they said they wanted to retire it all and get few billion to close th product it be fine. It’s naive to think btc dies if Strategy sells any bitcoin People who think this is because their view for being long is tied to strategy rather than understanding bitcoin first

"But how will Saylor be able to pay the dividends?" > He'll sell the common stock $MSTR above 1x mNAV "But what if it trades at a discount to NAV?" > He'll use the USD reserve that covers 2 years "But what if the USD reserve is empty?" > He'll sell BTC or BTC derivatives "But what if BTC trades at $20k in 2 years?" > Dawg, I won't be here anymore if that happens

@0x_Kun @thedefivillain If they sell a single BTC the whole jig is up, it's extremely naive to think otherwise And this nothing to do with the impact of the actual sales, however marginal they may be, but the signal that it sends to the market

@thedefivillain Before those last 2 he can lower yield or even buy strc down etc An even if he sells btc people don’t realise although it’s obvious that it would be marginal an otc They don’t move price buying billions and yet if they sell some people think it has to crash lol

@awawat fcb 1d 200ema (soon)

fcb 1w 200ema

It was clear after 10/10 (and had been for quite a while prior to that if you had an ounce of introspection) that this entire market was a dead man walking All that remained were vultures trying to extract increasingly sparse pickings from an ever more shriveled corpse So a ruthless washout like this isn't remotely surprising, in fact it's the necessary first step if crypto is ever to be a healthy market again Lots of doom on the timeline today as one would expect, and rightfully so But if you look past the emotion, this is the first time in over 2 years we're seeing prices for BTC that are actually interesting to allocate at, bereft of any delusional short termism that has defined this market since the day Trump won and the so-called "golden age of crypto" commenced Scaling into spot BTC buys for the first time since 2023, from here till mid 40s (FWIW I don't think we go that low) Godspeed 🧘🏻‍♂️

doesn’t help to have discovered that Epstein was Satoshi

@0xJezza No traumatic life experience for the rest of life will ever compare to hodling Vechain down -99% in 2018 because it was the "Ethereum of China" and a guaranteed 10x lmao

@KAIZ3NS Buying HYPE at the BTC levels you outlined is arguably the kingmaker trade of the "next cycle" SOL circa 2023

The fact that there will be no altcoins worth bidding when prices are so low tells you the state of crypto. I think there is 2-3 maximum worth bidding but is it even worth the risk? This cycle should show you how many of you are so underexposed to Bitcoin and why you should turn into a Bitcoin maxi.

I’m not playing the game for a bounce. No, I’m not bidding low 90s/high 80s. I’ll wait until we bleed into the low 70s, everyone leaves, everyone dies of boredom. Everyone calls crypto dead after half a year of ranging. Bottoms aren’t made in fear, they’re made in boredom. That’s when I’ll buy, that’s when the path to $600k begins.

@0xMerp Moot question Because neither is going to happen

Likelihood that HYPE reaches $100 before BTC reaches $200k

@thedefivillain The best way to play XPL is to not trade the token, and simply farm the Plasma lending vault with size ~8% token denominated yield at current prices, lowest risk exposure to any potential future upside in the price

Jonah was saying after launch that he was up 100x on his angel investment I guess we can still go lower 🥴

The more I think about it, the less convinced I am that $XPL is gonna have a PUMP-like comeback after washing out all longs in the universe It's a $3.6bn high FDV low float VC coins with no revenue supporting the token It might just keep underperforming and CT got psyoped into a collective delusion after TGE

@AviFelman @GwartyGwart @KemonomichiNL Probably your worst take of all time tbh 50% tax is literal daylight robbery You can get all of that for 0% tax in places like Dubai and crime isn't "negligible" but literal zero (as it should be)

I am tax rate agnostic 50% tax is fine if you are getting 70% value 20% tax is shit if you are getting 10% value Paying 50% to have homeless guy take shits in front of your apartment is retarded

The bad news - It's going to suck for a while The good news - You'll eventually get absolutely generational entries on $BTC and $HYPE “The soul learns joy only by first tasting despair.”

@katexbt The good news is you can short all of this to zero eventually on Hyperliquid, no KYC required Hyperliquid

Think all you need is a tax bill, utility bill, passport, and like 5k to just double your money away into a million dollars using presales. Why even bother airdrop farming or trading you just need a passport from an ELIGIBLE COUNTRY Plasma was free 10k lmfao Dead industry

@deaftrader1 +1

Monad era (until we jeeted it)

@Route2FI ANYTHING above 1x leverage (spot) is absolutely not conservative, especially if your entire available capital on a platform is deployed in that position The normalization of being more than 1x exposed with full port is the single biggest reason everyone got rekt

The Black Friday event was scary, but I got out mostly untouched. I was delta neutral into the weekend on Lighter, and my shorts weren’t auto-closed, which happened on eg. Hyperliquid. On the long leg, I had spot positions only. I had no perp positions open on Bybit/Binance, but one day earlier, I was pair trading DOGE/BTC with good size. I closed it out because I wanted a weekend with full rest, but I can only imagine how rekt I’d become if I kept it open. So I was kind of lucky this time. I usually use low leverage (2-3x), and for the purpose of reducing capital needed on the CEX/DEX, but it is pretty wild to me that altcoins on average were down 62%, while some altcoins went as low as 85-99% down. Which means that every leverage trader on the long side got rekt. Over the last years, some of the wildest degens have entered CT, making it in Solana trenches, and eventually tried their luck in perps. We have normalized the use of leverage, and I use it on a daily basis myself. You can blame people and say they had no risk management, but IMO, using 2-3x leverage is quite conservative. I don’t think people will stop using it tbh. In 1-2 weeks, degens will play the game again as if nothing happened. The ones left in the game are the stubborn people who are careful, mostly owning spot assets, and who consider new coins/projects for a long time before they ape in. They are not the ones who buy things first, and usually they don’t earn crazy gains, but at the same time, they have steadily compounded growth of their portfolio, year after year. Perp traders are the ones who got hit the hardest, and ironically, I think that many shitcoin trenchers (Solana degens) are doing relatively okay, because they mostly trade their coins without leverage. Some of them, ofc entered the perp game, and if they did, they prob lost a lot. But many just stayed in their lane, which means they lost money, but not everything, since it is spot positions. For the perp DEXes, it is interesting to see what comes out of this. On Hyperliquid, shorts were auto-closed, while on Lighter, they weren’t. As a result, HLP made money, while LLP lost money. No one knows where the future of perp dexes will be, but thanks to the stress test on Friday, there are plenty of lessons to learn and things to implement. Will we see changes to the buyback model for $HYPE, for example? Is a 100% buyback sustainable? It might sound like I am very pro Lighter here, but there are several issues there as well. I've had trouble with TWAPs there lately, basically TWAPs that don't fill, even though it's just $1,000 per 30 sec (which would have easily filled on HL). This has happened 3 different times now over the last 2 weeks, and one time I lost out on a nice price gain on $HYPE from $41 to $45 (bc my TWAP was cancelled). I am in dialogue with Lighter about this. Will I stop using leverage? No. I know I am the one responsible for my trades and my decisions. There will always be risks. If there are no risks, it just means there is no money to be made. For DeFi, I expect to see unwinding of positions going forward. DeFi did extremely well under Friday’s event, but people got scared, and I think many would prefer just holding assets in their own wallets vs. trusting another party. USDE did fine, luckily. I like to think of Ethena as the bearer of DeFi. Ethena is holding the DeFi world on its shoulder. If something bad happens to them, there will be mass implications; see, for example, Pendle (70% of Pendle’s TVL is due to Ethena). Going forward, I am thinking about what altcoins would be the best buy. Personally leaning on $BNB, $MNT, and OG coins that have been around for a while. Also, I think the trenches might be a bit quieter going forward, so PUMP and Fartcoin are not my main bets. For now, I hold mostly stablecoins, and I am going to stick to pure news/narrative trading. You might not earn the most with this, but short-term trades at least protect the book very well. All eyes on Nasdaq futures tonight (10 pm UTC).