Larry Sabato
67.6K posts

Larry Sabato
@LarrySabato
Director, UVA @Center4Politics. Author, The Kennedy Half Century https://t.co/JYUokVHxEZ. Read the Crystal Ball every week: https://t.co/7WXMMNgCNw
Charlottesville, VA Katılım Şubat 2009
37.6K Takip Edilen199K Takipçiler
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@SouthPoint1000 They’ve become acquaintances over the years. I’m never lonely.
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@LarrySabato Larry you stirred up the Trump/Putin bot farms all the way to the Kremlin.......
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US inflation is persistently running above the Fed’s target:
US PCE inflation has surged +28.5% since February 2018, to an all-time high.
Had inflation run at a steady 2% target, it would have risen +17.4% over the same period.
In other words, the current path overshot the target by +11.1 percentage points.
The gap began to widen in 2021 following massive economic stimulus in response to the pandemic and near-zero interest rates in 2020 and 2021.
As a result, PCE inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target since April 2021, spanning 60 consecutive months.
The most recent reading for March stood at 3.5%, the highest since June 2023.
Inflation in the US remains way too high.

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“Trump’s old methods will be turned to a new task: trying to deceive the American people and the world into believing that the war he lost was really a big win, the biggest ever, so big you cannot believe it” theatlantic.com/politics/2026/…
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Megyn Kelly, who endorsed and campaigned for Trump in the 2024 election:
“I didn’t expect the corruption to be quite as widespread as it has been. The self-dealing, the lining of his and his family’s pockets. It’s shocking… You look across the board at the Trump family, I’ve never seen a family get so rich off the presidency.”
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New - Generic Ballot poll - Hispanic voters
🔵 Democrats 60% (+34)
🔴 Republicans 26%
Last poll - Republicans +4 (38% Swing from 🔴 ⏩ 🔵)
Echelon #B - 5/18
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Pope Leo XIV called for robust regulation of artificial intelligence and for its developers to work for the common good rather than profit, issuing a sweeping manifesto on safeguarding humankind as the technology impacts everything from work to war. apnews.com/article/pope-a…
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You are seeing in real time why Trump companies went bankrupt so many times. Set aside your politics. This guy is incapable of making a deal or meaningful decision and it follows the same cycle. Big flashy announcement (Epic Fury). Adversity hits (Hormuz closed). Defraud stakeholders (promise two week solution). Freeze up (endless two week cycle loop). Compound the problem (resource depletion). Final chance to save face rejected (what you’re seeing now). Bankruptcy strikes and blame others during chaos. Rinse repeat.
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Before vaccines one in five babies didn't survive a year
healthbot@thehealthb0t
Lara Logan: “Vaccines kill people, not just Covid vaccines or vaccines.” “They have created a system where humans unknowingly and blindly go like lambs to the slaughter” “We offer up our kids to the system”
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Larry Sabato retweetledi

“How much Iran will get away with, and how much humiliation the United States will endure, has yet to be ironed out by the negotiators, but the war is now almost certain to end with Tehran’s theocrats firmly in power,” @RadioFreeTom argues: theatln.tc/cILod0Jm

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Larry Sabato retweetledi

What is happening here?
The US birthrate is now down -30% since pre-2008 levels while financial wealth is at record highs.
Why? Because only asset owners are able to afford this economy.
As shown in our below analysis, this crisis accelerated in both 2008 and 2020.
And, with every recession and every round of inflationary economic stimulus, the crisis simply accelerates even further.
Now, we are seeing the biggest divergence between the S&P 500 and the US birth rate in history.
The result? Tons of young Americans simply cannot afford to have kids in another sign of the "K-Shaped" economy.
The US is facing a massive demographic crisis.
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Surely it's just a coincidence that the 1789 Capital, the investment firm Trump's son Don Jr is a partner for, saw the assets it manages skyrocket from $200 million to $3.5 billion over the past year ft.com/content/712a6a…
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BREAKING: Pope Leo XIV makes historic apology for Holy See's own role in legitimizing slavery and for failing to condemn it for centuries. apnews.com/article/pope-a…
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Trump is now reportedly responsible for roughly 27.7% of the entire U.S. national debt accumulated under all presidents combined.
That is an astonishing figure historically.
The national debt just crossed $39 trillion.
President Trump has added roughly $12–13 trillion to the debt across his two terms in office.
That’s approximately 30% of ALL U.S. national debt accumulated since 1789.
In 2016, Trump said he would pay down the national debt “over a period of eight years.”
Instead:
- First term: +$7.8 trillion
- Second term: roughly +$4–5 trillion already
And yes, COVID affected first-term spending.
It does not explain adding another trillion dollars every five months without a pandemic.
A political movement built on:
“fiscal conservatism”
“small government”
“balanced budgets”
has now overseen the largest debt expansion tied to any single presidency in American history.
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