Jaq

@CityOfTakes @TinkerTailor534 @Chris_arnade Yeah there’s just no way European waitstaff out earns Americans after tipping. 15-20% on every table really adds up

@TinkerTailor534 @Chris_arnade The hourly wage of Swedish waitstaff might be higher, but I'm not sure it's true their American counterparts make less after tips.

This is another example of why walking across an entire city, or a region passing through cities, gives you a better understanding of a place. When you walk across Milan, or from Dusseldorf to Bonn, you see that Europe isn't nearly as economically wealthy as the US. If you stick to tourist centers -- London, Paris, Milan -- you only see the wealthiest, and not the often dreary suburban apartment block bleah where most people live

Pictured: Republican objections to Virginia's redistricting

@moonbeamer6 @admcrlsn The 18-29 group is not larger than the millennial share (30-45).

@admcrlsn I will eat my hand if more children vote than millennials.

Woah woah woah. Emerson is certainly pegging the likely Democratic primary electorate to be younger than it was in 2022 and 2018 (per L2, see chart below). They might be right or wrong about that assumption for the model, but hardly “irresponsible” or worthy of being “ashamed.”

@BonnieDerk1234 @IAPolls2022 @QuantusInsights Tell that to North Carolina.

@IAPolls2022 @QuantusInsights It should take a super majority to disenfranchize 40% of the population.

Virginia Redistricting Poll Initial support: 🟢 Yes, approve: 51.2% 🟤 No, reject: 46.9% —— After informing voters it would create 10 Dem-leaning districts and 1 GOP-leaning district until 2030: 🟢 Yes, approve: 49.6% 🟤 No, reject: 46.9% @QuantusInsights | 4/16 | n=1,003 quantusinsights.org/f/virginia-red…

@hecubian_devil Bubble pop =/= the underlying technology disappears.

I’d like to highlight this for other leftists: if I’m wrong about AI—the bubble pops and LLMs disappear forever, it was all a charade—I look stupid. That’s the whole cost. If you’re wrong, the cost is you didn’t prepare and organize for an existential threat to liberation!

@roon0292 @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel I mean, same, but for the reasons we said earlier (compact clause, Congressional approval), not any of the odd hypotheticals Gruntled keeps posing.

@LeftJaq @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel I only have this to say My skepticism remains

Imagine if the compact was in place in 2024 and Trump won the biggest electoral landslide since Reagan ‘84

@NeverTr74704466 @roon0292 @daveweigel Another hypothetical! Right after Democrats lost the popular vote, too. It’s a bit exhausting, let’s just call this.

@LeftJaq @roon0292 @daveweigel It is true, however, that all Democratic positions on how institutions should be structured are based on what advantages them in the political moment. The compact would last only as long as Democrats perceived that the EC disadvantaged them.

@NeverTr74704466 @roon0292 @daveweigel A national recount has never been a thing, and that’s just not how interstate compacts work. Just like a state can’t unilaterally renege and the courts are the recourse for rogue SOS. I could come up with a laundry list of hypotheticals to discredit just about anything too.

@LeftJaq @roon0292 @daveweigel Yes, that's how they should do it, but they won't. They'll demand a national recount, it won't happen, and they'll all agree to mutually ignore the compact.

@NeverTr74704466 @roon0292 @daveweigel And again, this same hypothetical could be applied to our current system. It’s not unique to the popular vote compact.

@NeverTr74704466 @roon0292 @daveweigel Again, you’re stretching hypotheticals on top of other hypotheticals here. All US states (aside from ND which does it at the poll) requires voters to register, where they prove eligibility, prior to being mailed a ballot or voting in person.

@NeverTr74704466 @roon0292 @daveweigel 1) Why would they? If that’s the margin after applicable states conduct recounts, 48.8% is the winner. 2) They certainly can, as they do in our current system.

@LeftJaq @roon0292 @daveweigel 1) Yes, states could definitely do their own recounts, but you just know this is going to matter when the popular vote is like 48.8%-48.7% and then everyone's gonna wonder what to do. 2) They can't have their own standards if we do popular vote. That's the problem.

@NeverTr74704466 @newliberals @daveweigel Those laws pass strict scrutiny as well and comply with the 15th amendment, 19th amendment, 24th amendment, 26th amendment, Voting Rights Act, and various state laws and constitutions.

@LeftJaq @newliberals @daveweigel Free speech rights can only be limited if the law in question passes strict scrutiny, which is an extremely high bar to clear. States, on the other hand, can restrict eligibility to vote for felons, immigrants, and out of state visitors.

@NeverTr74704466 @newliberals @daveweigel Your right to free speech can be “taken away” as well. You’re not allowed to yell “fire,” courts can impose gag orders, etc. If a state is holding an election it can’t toss ballots based on the partisan lean of the voter or the county. That’s discrimination.

@LeftJaq @newliberals @daveweigel There isn't really a right to vote in the same sense there is a right to free speech. Voting rights can be taken away or never offered in the first place. So it's not a true right. It's more that you have the right not to be discriminated against when it comes to eligibility.

@newliberals @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel If Texas, for example, decided to go back to the legislature assigning EVs, then they didn’t have an election, and what exactly do you think that does to the national popular vote?

@newliberals @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel Again, the compact doesn’t go into effect without the signatory states representing an electoral majority. A state could assign EVs with their legislature, or they could hold a statewide election. They cannot hold an election & then not count certain votes. Thats discrimination.

@newliberals @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel That is on the assignment of electoral votes, not the act of voting which no state can deny to its citizens. The popular vote compact doesn’t go in effect unless participating states represent 271+ electoral votes. So states not a party to the compact couldn’t change the result.

@LeftJaq @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel google it. States can pass laws to revert back to state legislatures to pick Potus, and not people voting.

@newliberals @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel Uh yes, there absolutely is a right to vote in the Constitution… it’s the 15th amendment. You know, the one we fought a civil war over?

@LeftJaq @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel ? Theres no right to vote in Constitution. The state legs can do whatever they want. Why do you think Trump tried to get Arizona, Pa, and Ga to decertify.

@newliberals @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel That is just not at all how it works. A state cannot disenfranchise millions of votes after the fact.

@LeftJaq @NeverTr74704466 @daveweigel It could and probably would happen today. But the impact is limited. We would lose Tx EV’s, and that’s it. Under compact, this would affect election; and same thing would happen wherever there’s 1 party rule. Desantis, Abbott, etc, would net GOP millions of votes legally

@NeverTr74704466 @snitchin_bubs @daveweigel The “will of the state voters” is represented by the state legislature signing onto the compact & failing to withdraw from it by the deadline. There’s no legal grounds for a SOS to unilaterally renege.

@NeverTr74704466 @snitchin_bubs @daveweigel In your hypothetical (a state reneges the compact at the final hour), SCOTUS has already found the compact constitutional (or there would be nothing to renege). So the courts would be weighing whether a state violated the plain text of the interstate compact.