A.n.d.r.e.a
62 posts
A.n.d.r.e.a
@Li20Ea
indu and tech l/o pm - unconscious incompetence
Katılım Şubat 2020
440 Takip Edilen45 Takipçiler
@Li20Ea You forgot to mention the most important company
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Can anyone guess who Mr. Fiedler, $LPK CEO, sees as the company’s two biggest competitors?
Daniel Romero@HyperTechInvest
I had the opportunity to speak with $LPK CEO, and I was surprised by a few things he told me Of course, there are many NDAs in this space, but you have to pick up on the breadcrumbs
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He wouldn’t mention customers because of NDAs, but he did say LPKF has credible competition and mentioned some names
The biggest competitors aren’t from Taiwan, though. However, yes, there are absolutely companies that will take market share
There will be multiple TGV machine suppliers, probably around 10 once you include Chinese companies
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I had the opportunity to speak with $LPK CEO, and I was surprised by a few things he told me
Of course, there are many NDAs in this space, but you have to pick up on the breadcrumbs
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@HyperTechInvest You mean some non taiwanese company could compete against lpk for the innolux relationship
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@Li20Ea Yes but that’s not where the strongest competition is
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@BrainyMarsupial @HyperTechInvest ty for replying, i have been reading this for some time. hopefully order in take will confirm this soon
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@jukan05 Bro you ve been constantly cited in spec sales chats, trust me the street reads every post you make
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@TMTLongShort @rich_toad ultimately i can say today i do spend much less time speaking to sell side or reading their reports
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@rich_toad Correct and I contend that the marketing driven model is about to be jeopardized as AI narrows the knowledge gap
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DORs of every sellside research dept have failed miserably.
Besides for maybe Bernstein I couldn’t imagine someone of Carmack’s caliber writing something nearly as positive about any note the street has put out since ChatGPT came out.
And yes ofc they serve different purposes but given the difference in budgets and resources you’d think at least occasionally their notes would be as interesting as what Dylan pumps out on the regular.
John Carmack@ID_AA_Carmack
I have been very impressed by @SemiAnalysis_ . I think of myself as a wide ranging systems engineer, looking for value at every level from the chip specs to the user interface, but SA exposes me to additional levels of "the system", both above (datacenters) and below (semiconductor fabrication). It probably puts me in "just knows enough to be dangerous" territory. Neat things I learned today: Some of the 800VDC datacenter design choices leverage parts commoditized by electric vehicles. There is now a SiC MOSFET that can operate on 10kV electricity, opening up the possibility of working directly with medium (ha!) voltage AC power transmission lines without stepping down.
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@TMTLongShort do you think plm/cad industrial software is a relatively better place vs broader saas or not necessarily
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While I was an early SaaS bear for obvious reasons I do think a significant subset are going to (temporarily) massively benefit with agentic workloads driving consumption.
However this will in-turn prime the ecosystem for the shift to consumption pricing at a time when the barriers to entry are about to implode and agent-oriented systems will quickly be stood up.
Long way of saying the near-term risk-reward on broadly shorting the index is no longer compelling but dispersion within the legacy SaaS ecosystem is about to blowout significantly with 2027 likely being disastrous for a wide swath of public names.
Stay safe out there. Pivot to bottleneck investing if your PM doesn’t hate you 🫡
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@insane_analyst @bucketshopcap Is you negative view on marvell more grounded on its valuation or the business
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@bucketshopcap I have lost $80K YTD trying to short Marvell. Be careful Matt Murphy the 🤡 is gons pump random CXL shit as XPU attach.
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@TMTLongShort Man when do u find time to listen to all of them while working buy side
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People have gotten way way over their skis, thinking $INTC is going to compete with $TSM
EMIB is good tech, Intel might fill up their fabs to the brim
But there’s only 1 king of the Fabs and it’s not Intel. Any other take than that is pure delusion IMO
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@ContrarianCurse Ai is non deterministic and it will kill things that require creativity
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@ContrarianCurse To me is more about how the mkt feels about sustainability of gm and mkt share , regardless of what jensen says
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@ContrarianCurse would you rather have semi cap or nvda in an unwind
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Vibes day 2 have soured very very quickly. Tape is bad, coffee is cold - Citadel’s contingent has landed and is in full force asking about 30bps QoQ cost acceleration in an obscure line item the Lone Pine guy didn’t even know existed.
This is the part of the conference where the winners get seperated from the losers.
Negative Alpha@NegativeAlp
Vibes at MS TMT are honestly immaculate, 40% less poo in the SF streets, Iran/Israel headlines making cyber go up, reasonable mix of pod bois to SM analysts. Haven't felt the vibes like this since '99.
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