Ryan 🟠⚡️

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Ryan 🟠⚡️

Ryan 🟠⚡️

@LibertyBTC

₿itcoiner⚡️, Patriot, Data Engineer, Homesteader, Texan

Katılım Haziran 2017
1.2K Takip Edilen810 Takipçiler
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
@BTCoptioneer @AdamBLiv High-confidence 40%-60% annual returns are available with MSTR and Strive. Both have trustworthy management teams. Zero reason to go further out on the risk curve for *anything* IMO. Especially a company generally perceived to be shady. The thought makes me nauseous TBH.
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
@SullyMichaelvan Undeniably true. And its not like there will be less of this type of data over time... there will be more and more. Cool area to dive into.
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Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan@SullyMichaelvan·
1) I couldn't agree more and I think this is a brilliant way to think about it, the synergies between the data sets further reenforce how interesting all of this is. 2) Interesting you bring up psychology because I've been thinking about it a great deal lately. Each of these different mood states says something interesting about the market from a psychological perspective. For example, when people are angry (which the broader bitcoin market is now) they are more likely to look for any individual to blame for negative news. If things are optimistic, people are more likely to completely ignore the same kind of news. Very interesting dynamic and I think there's a lot unexplored here.
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Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan@SullyMichaelvan·
Overwhelmingly grateful this morning. You can't hold Bitcoin for long durations of time without experiencing both euphoria and humility. Most of us start this journey with an incredible amount of excitement. The rabbit hole is deep, the ideas are intoxicating, and the orange coin feels inevitable. You make bold predictions and can't imagine a world where price goes down for long. But Bitcoin doesn't move up and to the right every day. Eventually, the price dumps. Moods shift. Conviction gets tested. And inevitably, you realize how much you still don't know. I've been wrong repeatedly over the years (and literally have the sentiment data to prove it), but IMO that's part of the process. The important thing is to use this pain to refine your worldview, learn, and continue growing. People like James and the @_checkonchain team have been instrumental in my own learning journey. I'm incredibly thankful for the opportunity to collaborate with them and share my work in this way. Hopefully it's as valuable to you as their work has been to me.
Michael Sullivan tweet media
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️@_Checkmatey_

Peak Apathy. My latest piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers, and we have a special treat. Today I build ontop of a terrific work @SullyMichaelvan has done measuring Bitcoiner sentiment, and overlay where onchain data corroborates, or diverges. newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/peak-apathy

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Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan@SullyMichaelvan·
@LibertyBTC @_Checkmatey_ @_checkonchain Thanks so much man. I've been over here on my own watching James' work and noticing how much coherence there is between the different data sets and methodologies. Finally getting to marry them a bit has been insanely cool to see for me as well.
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
@AlexanderH51699 @StrategyMaxi @PunterJeff He can’t. ASST has outperformed MSTR and he’s on tilt. He’s incoherent right now at best. He thinks he understands Amplification better than Saylor and Phong. He thinks he understands investing better than Mike Alfred. It’s delusion.
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100% Strategy
100% Strategy@StrategyMaxi·
True North is Owned by Strive. What Happened to $MSTR True North? 🤔 @PunterJeff decided to sell his soul for $$$ to try to beat Strategy. Machiavelli of Bitcoin is ready to play your game, Jeff. Let's "Cooperate" 😉😉😉
100% Strategy tweet media
True North Clips@Truenorthclips

Buying $BTC doesn't just build the $ASST balance sheet. It raises the floor for everyone holding it. We are not $MSTR. We never were. Different investors. Different strategy. Same asset. Bigger game.

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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
Your point about zero dated options is a blatant strawman argument. Do better. Re: amplification, it is literally a first-page metric on strategy.com. Its also discussed in every earnings call, Q&A, etc... so take it up with Saylor and Phong, I guess. I'm sure you know better than they do. Also: 1. ASST has a higher mNAV than MSTR. 2. SATA's been pegged at par since the daily dividend announcement, which Saylor noted and was complimentary about. Clearly its leading to digital credit sales. 3. Share price is the only performance metric that matters in the final analysis. Everything else is window dressing.
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100% Strategy
100% Strategy@StrategyMaxi·
@LibertyBTC @PunterJeff Why not buy zero dated options they give super high amplification? Amplification is a gross simplified talking point that doesn't do math right. Performance is based on mNAV expansion, digital credit sales, digital credit cost. $MSTR will win three of them long term.
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Andrew McCarthy
Andrew McCarthy@AJamesMcCarthy·
@catsfive The water deluge was happening during this time, it’s a point of interest for those with sufficient attention spans
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Andrew McCarthy
Andrew McCarthy@AJamesMcCarthy·
This is probably the best look at the shockwaves I’ve seen from the latest Starship flight. Captured from a GoPro I clamped onto a proper camera to record simultaneous video. (I’ll show you the photo the better camera took in the reply)
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
Two posts ago, in response to my amplification comment, you said "amplification isn't performance" and to "make arguments." So, I gave you two concrete arguments. One about price (actual performance) and the other about market expectation of price moves (expected performance). Now you call performance-based metrics "weak" and say "discuss fundamentals." Amplification is literally fundamentals, and I already commented on it... only to have you say price is a weak argument - focus on fundamentals. Its clear nothing I say here matters. You're bound and determined to nitpick any and everything that doesn't fit your frame.
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100% Strategy
100% Strategy@StrategyMaxi·
@LibertyBTC @PunterJeff Using price charts is weak argument. Discuss fundamentals. I remember ETH bros using price charts in 2017 to show ETH beat BTC.
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
I did make arguments. You're choosing not to see them. Here's an argument: ASST has dramatically outperformed MSTR since both stocks' recent lows. Here's another: Look at the put/call skew on both stocks. The market expects ASST to outperform and is positioned accordingly. I hold MSTR only as I view it as the safer, lower-risk bet. And truthfully I don't think I need more performance than a 40% long-term CAGR. Once I'm financially independent maybe I'll dial up the risk a bit. But I do think the most likely outcome is ASST outperforms MSTR in bull markets... as it is already demonstrating.
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100% Strategy
100% Strategy@StrategyMaxi·
@LibertyBTC @PunterJeff Maybe try making arguments. You are illogical if you don't make any. Compare ability of $STRC vs ability of $SATA raise money. Amplification isn't performance. It's all about Total BTC, BTC Rating, BTC Risk to keep attracting markets to buy.
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
"Illogical" is a bit strong and just reinforces my broader point. I like the vast majority of your writing and thoughts but you're emotionally compromised here IMO. And this is coming from someone whose sole equity allocation is MSTR. Like you I'm irresponsibly long Strategy. Both companies can and will win.
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100% Strategy
100% Strategy@StrategyMaxi·
@LibertyBTC @PunterJeff Illogical take. I have made plenty of posts on why Strategy will outperform long term. Did you see what happened to Metaplanet? People said Metaplanet will outperform MSTR. 😂😂😂
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
@StrategyMaxi @PunterJeff You're a bit too wrapped up in this I think StrategyMaxi. ASST literally has higher amplification and a much smaller float. They're likely to outperform MSTR both to the upside and downside, almost by definition. I only hold MSTR personally, but I want the best for ASST.
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
@BTCoptioneer It isn't something brittle that "breaks" - just a statistical pattern. The lower BTC is relative to PL trend the more likely it is to mean-revert to the upside, and vice versa. BTC can definitely temporarily sell off to lower than $60K, for example. But probably not for long.
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BTC Optioneer
BTC Optioneer@BTCoptioneer·
The Bitcoin Power Law trend will not hold. It is already starting to look like we will break out to the downside at some point. I am still super bullish on Bitcoin, but assuming Bitcoin can never sell off below the lower band of the Power Law is delulu.
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Congressman Shri Thanedar
Congressman Shri Thanedar@RepShriThanedar·
Tulsi Gabbard is resigning. Good riddance. The Iran war has been the biggest display of intelligence incompetence in decades.
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Ryan 🟠⚡️
Ryan 🟠⚡️@LibertyBTC·
@spearofdog @cranium243 @jimstewartson LLMs have done the former and at a minimum have made significant contributions to the latter. You must have an extremely dim view of the vast majority of humans that will never make a meaningful contribution to humanity’s collective knowledge.
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Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸
I’m getting tired of “experts” like this misunderstanding what they’re looking at. LLMs are giant databases of stuff HUMAN BEINGS have done. They are the EXHAUST of humanity. Prompts are database queries into EXISTING DATA. It’s a fuzzy search engine, not intelligence.
Daniel Lemire@lemire

I am getting tired of reading 'experts' like LeCun repeatedly claiming that our AIs are nowhere near human-level intelligence. Let us look at the evidence. US universities rank students based on standardized tests like the SAT. Current AIs achieve near-perfect SAT scores. They also beat tests like the GRE. A few years ago, it was notable when early ChatGPT scored ~120 on an IQ test, a common measure of human intelligence. An IQ of 120 is well above average. Current AIs reportedly have IQ scores similar to those of leading scientists. It is not just in tests. I can ask an AI to produce a science paper that looks undistinguishable from what a PhD level student could do. I just have to give it the data. Better yet, from a prompt, agents can run the experiments and collect the data, and then write the papers. Those of us who try to get work done with AI know what is possible. You can't possibly just say 'this is nowhere near human-level intelligence'. In software, good AIs show a greater mastery of, say, C++, than your average software engineering professor. You could just build a formal test to prove it. The difficulty is that the professors would refuse to take your tests. At this point point, someone will object 'yeah, but your AI can't do this simple thing that we can all do'. Fine. These AIs do not have *human* intelligence. They are very much not human beings. They are something like alien intelligence. They can code straight in assembly language, but have trouble counting characters in words. But that's the result of trade-offs. A dog or a monkey can solve some problems faster than you can. But let us be fair. As a species, these AIs have definitively 'human-level intelligence'. You can't spend decades setting up cognitive tests for human beings, have these AIs beat us in these tests and then say 'well, that's not real intelligence'. Come on !

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beethoven
beethoven@spearofdog·
@LibertyBTC @cranium243 @jimstewartson For the sake of argument say that line is = the best line a human ever wrote. That would not refute the assertion that LLMs are a compressed model of existing human knowledge, not new knowledge.
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Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan@SullyMichaelvan·
You probably already know that $STRC is dominating the preferred share narrative right now. What you might not yet realize is just how durable that dominance is becoming. I wanted to visualize the $STRC narrative over time and compare it to how often the rest of the Bitcoin ecosystem was talking about all of the other preferred products. The results were unsurprising... $STRC is separating from the pack, but the degree to which that’s happening was intriguing to me. Since 2026 $MSTR has basically stopped talking about any of the other preferreds. This isn’t shocking. Saylor had his “iphone moment” and found product-market fit. Then he immediately doubled down. But what stuck out so much to me is the peaks and valleys… the narrative cyclicality. The mention rate of $STRC explodes... then crashes. This pattern happens each month around the ex-dividend date. Partially because people are about to get paid (everyone likes getting paid), but also because it means Saylor is hitting the ATM and buying metric boatloads of BTC. The relatively higher highs as $STRC keeps being more heavily talked about are interesting, but what’s even more interesting IMO is the higher lows. This narrative, this interest, this intrigue… it appears to be durable. Even far away from the dividend date people are talking about digital credit. It’s building a narrative base. This is not some quick pump, but rather a sustained and growing interest across the entire ecosystem. I theorize (with a reasonably high degree of confidence) that the peaks and valleys of the mention rate will continue to grow less volatile as $STRC continues to grow less volatile. I suspect this will only get tighter as the semi-monthly dividends are rolled out and it’s going to be extremely interesting watching how Strive’s $SATA product performs in comparison. The attention is cyclical… but as of right now it appears that the baseline will continue to go up and to the right forever, Laura.
Michael Sullivan tweet media
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Lance
Lance@sirius_devops·
@jimstewartson @LibertyBTC So are 99% of people . Most people are complete idiots incapable of problem solving or coming up with anything original. I'm way more impressed with the llms I use than the hundreds of people I see all week .
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