_Checkonchain

🚨 New report launch: The Bitcoin Checkpoint Get 43 full-page insights here👉 tinyurl.com/btc-checkpoint. Bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally changed this cycle, and in this report, we break down exactly how. Here's what we cover: - Price Performance: Why chopsolidation has defined this cycle. - Supply Dynamics: What an institutional Bitcoin supply breakdown looks like. - Capital Flows & Sentiment: How $1T+ in value has been entrusted to Bitcoin. - Sell-Side Pressure: How the market has absorbed tens of billions in sell-side. - The Extraordinary ETFs: Which have reshaped the supply and demand balance. - Derivatives & Leverage: What lies in store as derivatives explode in size. Proudly produced alongside @unchained. Get it here👉 tinyurl.com/btc-checkpoint.

ICYMI: Had an excellent chart focused broadcast with @1basemoney last night, covering numerous Bitcoin dynamics. Mean reversion, capitulation, cycles, even cointime-adjusted inflation rates. Thanks @1basemoney for coaxing out my inner nerd on this one! x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

🔴Webinar is live: Finding Opportunity in the Bitcoin Bear (@_Checkmatey_ and @MonochromeAsset ). Join here: youtube.com/live/YcXpQFjJO…

@_Checkmatey_ recently joined @natbrunell on the Coin Stories Podcast to talk through what Bitcoin’s on-chain data is saying about the current market. They cover: - Why the 2025 bull run stalled - What large capitulation events actually signal - Retail vs institutional behaviour - How to read Bitcoin’s blockchain as investor psychology Watch the full conversation → youtube.com/watch?v=M4RPTu…

@_Checkmatey_ will be going live in 4 hours (8pm CDT/12pm AEST) with @MonochromeAsset to discuss how onchain analysis can help uncover opportunity during the Bitcoin bear market. We’ll cover: - Bear market floor levels - Long vs short-term holder behaviour - Capital rotation - Derivatives & ETF markets Plus a live Q&A. Free on YouTube → youtube.com/live/YcXpQFjJO…

Bitcoin’s current price structure looks similar to the second bear flag seen in mid-2022, and many are assuming history will repeat with another major leg lower. However, the underlying supply and mean-reversion structure today tells a more nuanced story. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines where the 2022 fractal comparison holds, where it breaks down, and what the onchain data suggests about the current market structure → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/bear-flag-fr…

Join @_Checkmatey_ and Grayson McLeod (From @MonochromeAsset) next week for a live webinar: Finding Opportunity in the Bitcoin Bear Market 📅 Wednesday, 18 March ⏰12pm - 1pm AEDT 📍 YouTube Live A Q&A will follow the presentation. Hope to see you there! Full agenda and livestream link here: monochrome.au/news/articles/…

Bitcoin just ripped back above $73k, leaving the deep value price range. The question is: will the bulls take the upper hand, or is this rally destined to fade like all the others in a bear? In today's flash market update, @_Checkmatey_ examines BTC’s rally from both an onchain and derivatives perspective to assess what the data says. Get it here -> newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/flash-update…

Bear markets are a process of transferring coins from weak hands back to strong hands at cheaper prices. The question is: how do we know when that process is complete? In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ explores the supply mechanics which form a bear market floor, and a combination of leading indicators that help us identify when the bear has truly been slain. → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/slaying-the-…

Bitcoin has almost printed five consecutive red monthly candles, following the largest volatility spike of the cycle. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why the path of least resistance from here is likely chopsolidation, and what that means for market structure over the coming months → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/all-roads-le… Some insights explored in the article: - 1-week realised volatility spiked above 150%, a level typically seen around capitulation events - Weekly RSI-14 is at one of the most oversold readings in Bitcoin’s history - ~$70B of BTC has migrated to new hands in the $60k–$70k range this year

Last week, Bitcoin saw roughly $2B in realised losses in a single day - the largest loss event in dollar terms in its history. Statistically, only 9% of the absolute worst days, of the worst chapters of Bitcoin’s long storied history have seen heavier losses locked in onchain. Events this extreme don’t happen often, and they usually mark periods of maximum fear. Get more data-driven insight here 👇 newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/capitulation

Last week's Bitcoin sell-off meets the criteria of a textbook capitulation event. It occurred rapidly, on heavy volume, and crystallised losses from the lowest-conviction holders. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines what this capitulation tells us about market structure, and what typically follows such events → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/capitulation Some insights explored in the article: - Net realised losses exceeded ~$1.5B/day - Spot, futures, options, and ETF volumes all surged to extreme levels. - Futures markets were meaningfully deleveraged as long-biased positions were flushed. - Realised losses reached their largest absolute USD print in Bitcoin’s history

We're seeing utter carnage in Bitcoin markets, with prices falling precipitously towards $60k. We've just published a flash market update for our Premium members, where @_Checkmatey_ provides his unfiltered and honest opinions about what the road ahead looks like from his PoV -> newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/welcome-to-d… A couple insights from the piece: - Based on long-term mean reversion models, we’re currently trading at levels only seen in 15% to 20% of trading days, coincident with bear market lows. - Based on faster mean reversion models like the STH cost basis and 200DMA, we’re at levels with fewer than 5% of BEAR MARKET days being lower. Welcome to deep value territory folks, hang in there.

Bitcoin has now back-filled the $70–80k supply air-pocket. That move was fast, but structurally unsurprising - low historical volume zones tend to offer little support on the way down. - Price is now approaching the 2024 chopsolidation range, a region of dense historical demand. - Paper losses are now on par (in USD terms) with prior bear extremes. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ continues his analysis of the prevailing drawdown, and what it means in the short term given we have now largely back-filled the air-pocket --> newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/eye-of-the-s…

Bitcoin breaking below $80k has pushed price under the True Market Mean and the average ETF cost basis, but the underlying data suggests this is progression deeper into the bear, not the final capitulation event. - ETF outflows have been sizeable, yet still lack the “mass exodus” profile typical of cycle-ending panic. - Onchain losses are increasing, though not yet at the intensity usually seen during true capitulation. - Futures markets continue to show traders trying to long the bottom, a regime where durable lows rarely form. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ outlines the “capitulation cocktail” - the alignment of losses, flows, leverage and sentiment that historically marks bear market floors → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-perfect-…

It's a bear market. We're much closer to the bottom than the top. It probably takes a while to form the low. Markets likely want to flush some excess. Be a patient buyer, not a panic seller. Don't use leverage. Use probabilities to your advantage. newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/leaking-lower

Bitcoin has sold back down into the high $80ks, with the bears taking a bunch of leveraged long traders out to the woodshed. - Around $260M worth of leveraged bull energy has been vaporised as Bitcoin sold off to around $87.8k. - Structure still resembles a bear flag, with a clear supply air-pocket between $70k–$81k. - Key question: are we still in buy-the-dip mode, or has behaviour shifted to sell-the-rip? In todays flash update newsletter, @_Checkmatey_ walks through the liquidation dynamics, air-pocket risk, and how he’s thinking about positioning if price revisits deeper value zones. We’ve also opened a 7-day Premium free trial (offer ends in a few days). Full article + charts below newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/flash-market…👇

Strategy’s $STRC just hit - and held - its $100 face value. That detail matters more than it sounds. - STRC is a variable-rate, senior preferred stock designed to trade at $100 with near-zero volatility. - At an ~11% yield, the market is signalling product-market fit for a money-market-like, BTC-backed instrument. - When STRC holds $100, Strategy can issue more of it and recycle that capital directly into Bitcoin accumulation. In our latest newsletter, @_Checkmatey_ explains why STRC behaving like a cash-equivalent could quietly restart Strategy’s Bitcoin buying flywheel - and why this matters for marginal supply and demand going forward 👇 newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/stretch-targ…

This cycle’s Short Term Holder MVRV drawdown has been noticeably shallower than the 2018 or 2022 bears. This may simply reflect a different market structure… or a different phase of the cycle. Either way, the depth of stress is not in the same league yet. 💡Chart Explainer: Short Term Holder MVRV compares what recent BTC buyers paid for their coins to what those coins are worth today. A value of 1 means they’re sitting at break even. Get data-driven BTC market insight in our latest newsletter edition: newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-redistri… Chart Link: charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unr…

The amount of Short-Term Bitcoin Holder Supply in Profit has moved from 0% to 60% since the November 2025 drawdown. Historically, this kind of recovery has often marked important turning points in the market. Read more in our latest newsletter edition: newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-redistri… Chart link: charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unr…

Bitcoin’s rally above $97k has bears and bulls at a standoff, but the underlying onchain data suggests a significant "redistribution" of coins is underway. - A massive volume of coins has changed hands from "fast money" to high-conviction buyers over the last 60 days. - The market is significantly less top-heavy today than it was in November, despite being at higher prices. - Leveraged traders are aggressively shorting this move, potentially fueling the next leg higher. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ breaks down why the "it happened before" bear case might be missing the actual supply-demand reality of 2026 --> newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-redistri…