_Checkonchain

The Checkonchain team is proud to launch the 2nd edition of The Bitcoin Checkpoint report, in partnership with our friends at @unchained. In this 30+ page report, @_Checkmatey_ provides a data-driven breakdown of Bitcoin’s 2025–26 bear market, using a wide range of data-sets across spot, onchain, ETF, and derivatives markets. Get the full report here👉 tinyurl.com/btc-checkpoint…. In the report, we assess: - How the 2025 bull market topped, and the role of spot sell-side pressure. - The mechanics of the drawdown, and what drove the move to $60k. - The two major capitulation events that have shaped this bear. - How over 2.0M BTC has rotated into a new cost basis range. - Why models like the True Market Mean are increasingly relevant. - Our base case thesis for where we believe this bear market bottoms out. Check out the full report 👉 tinyurl.com/btc-checkpoint….

In April 2024, @_alecdj & I planted our flag and launched the @_checkonchain newsletter. We had many sub-milestones, but the big one was to be the #1 paid substack in the Bitcoin category. Very humbled and thankful for every single one of or subscribers for helping us get there

Bear markets aren't just for finding bottoms. They're also one of the best times to model where the next cycle could go. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ explains why long-term price anchors become especially useful during bear markets, and how projecting their historical growth rates forward can help build a framework for estimating future cycle highs → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/numba-go-up

Strategy has sold 3,588 BTC. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $6.5B of outflows over the last eight weeks. Despite this wave of sell-side pressure, Bitcoin has continued to find buyers. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines where that demand is coming from, what onchain data reveals about investor behaviour, and why signs of seller exhaustion continue to build → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/buy-high-sel….

Bitcoin is back at $58k. The price may be the same as it was during the 2021 bull market, but the investors holding those coins - and the market structure beneath the surface - look very different today. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines what the return to this key price level reveals about investor behaviour, ETF flows, Strategy, and why downside momentum continues to slow → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-return-o….

SEOUL WELCOMES James Check (@_Checkmatey_) One of Bitcoin’s most respected on-chain analysts, known for his on-chain research at Glassnode and as co-founder of Checkonchain (@_checkonchain). COME FOR BITCOIN. STAY FOR SEOUL 🇰🇷

Strategy's entire capital stack is now trading below par. Common equity, preferred stocks, and the company's mNAV premium have all compressed to levels not previously seen in this cycle. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines what the market is signalling through Strategy's capital structure, and why it may now represent one of Bitcoin's largest near-term risks → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/sub-par Chart note: The chart compares the market value of Strategy's capital stack against the value of its Bitcoin treasury. For the first time, the enterprise value has compressed to roughly equal the underlying BTC holdings, leaving effectively no premium embedded in the common equity.

Late-stage bear markets are defined by apathy. Trading volumes dry up, demand weakens, sentiment deteriorates, and many investors begin questioning whether the asset will ever recover. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines whether Bitcoin is approaching the pointy end of this bear market, and what the current combination of investor behaviour, ownership structure, and market activity suggests about where we are in the cycle. Read it here → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-pointy-e…. Chart note: Long-Term Holders now control 77.9% of Bitcoin's invested capital (Realised Cap). Historically, this metric tends to peak late in bear markets, as supply gradually migrates from weaker hands to investors with longer time horizons.

Strategy's preferred stock Stretch (STRC) has taken a nose-dive, which rightfully has many questioning whether this is the market sending a more damning signal. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the breakdown in Strategy's preferred stock complex, what it reveals about investor sentiment, and why Bitcoin bear markets have a habit of exposing leverage hidden beneath the surface → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/saylors-stic… Some insights explored in the article: - Only STRF investors remain above their original $100 par value on a total return basis - STRK and STRD investors are underwater, even after accounting for dividends received - STRC has traded below its intended $100 par value since mid-May - Strategy now carries more than $21B in debt and preferred stock obligations

Saylor's Sticky Situation My write up assessing the STRC sell-off, and what I think it means for Strategy and Bitcoin is live for @_checkonchain subscribers. newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/saylors-stic…

Bitcoin bear markets tend to reshape the investor base. Coins move from weak hands to strong hands, supply becomes increasingly concentrated amongst long-term holders, and eventually the market begins to stabilise from the ground up. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why the 200-week moving average remains one of Bitcoin's most important accumulation zones, how this bear has reshaped the ownership structure, and what the earliest signs of improving momentum look like → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/momentum-spr…

Time-Pain: Bitcoin Bear Market Update What's real and what's FUD? @_Checkmatey_ from @_checkonchain and Peter got together for their quarterly update. You'll not want to miss this one. content.thebitcoinadviser.com/blog/time-pain…

Watch now: Bear Market Update with @PeterBTCAdviser. In this discussion with Pete, @_Checkmatey_ breaks down the key on-chain signals, investor behaviour, and market mechanics that are shaping the current Bitcoin bear market. We explore what capitulation really looks like, how to identify opportunity during periods of maximum pessimism, and the frameworks we use to navigate volatile markets. Watch now ↓ youtube.com/watch?v=ml5NYN…

Bear market bottoms are a process, not an event. First, price-sensitive investors capitulate. Then comes the harder phase: months of sideways action that slowly wear down the conviction of those who remain. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the evidence suggesting Bitcoin may be experiencing a time-pain capitulation event, and what investor behaviour looks like during this phase of the cycle → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/conviction-t… Chart explainer: The 200WMA Quantile measures where Bitcoin is trading relative to its 200-week moving average. Current readings sit in the bottom ~10% of all historical observations, a region only visited during the deepest stages of prior bear markets.

Resilience is about how quickly you can rebound from a shock event, and begin thinking clearly about your next decision. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines one of the most common investor dilemmas: should you wait and try to lump-sum the bear market bottom, or is a structured DCA strategy actually the better approach? Learn about it here → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-perfect-…

Resilience as an investor is all about how quickly you can rebound from the shock value of a market move, and adjust to the cards that lay on the table. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines Bitcoin's latest sell-off, how investors are responding beneath the surface, and what the probabilities suggest about prices at 66k. Get it here: newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/red-waterfall

Strategy just sold Bitcoin for only the second time in its history. The sale was small - just 32 BTC out of a treasury of 843,706 coins - but it raises a much bigger question: What does this sale tell us about how Strategy intends to manage its balance sheet going forward? In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the sale, the firm's evolving capital structure, and the risks investors should understand when analysing the world's largest corporate Bitcoin treasury → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/slaying-the-…

Every red candle feels like impending doom. Every green candle brings back just enough hope to make recovery feel possible. Then the next red candle arrives, and the bear market feels like it will last forever. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ explores the frameworks he uses to remove emotion from the decision-making process, focus on probabilities instead of predictions, and navigate bear markets with a clear head → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/stay-the-cou… Some insights explored in the article: - 25.8% of Bitcoin's Realised Cap has accumulated within the current trading range - Less than 3% of recently spent coins came from holders with a cost basis below $60k - Coinday Destruction remains at historic lows - Prices below $80k sit within the bottom third of the historical mean reversion distribution

There are loud creaks coming from the foundation of the fiat system, as bond yields push to multi-decade highs and commodity markets begin reasserting inflationary pressure. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why the real bear market may actually be unfolding in government bonds, and how commodities, infrastructure spending, and currency debasement all tie into Bitcoin’s long-term thesis → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-biggest-… Some insights explored in the article: - The 40-year bond bull market likely ended in 2020, with yields structurally trending higher since 2022 - Gold appears to have kicked off a broader decade-long commodity and hard-asset cycle - Rising commodity prices and infrastructure spending are creating renewed inflationary pressure globally - Bitcoin sell-side activity has collapsed to generational lows, signalling extreme market apathy and equilibrium

The Australian government just proposed sweeping changes to the capital gains tax system. The policy was pitched as a way to improve housing affordability for young Australians. But after running the numbers, @_Checkmatey_ found the changes may actually make it harder for young Aussies to build wealth, save for a deposit, and climb the asset ladder. Watch the full breakdown here: youtube.com/watch?v=I--Bdt…