Logan

@Poly_Helper I trade a lot of different stuff. A lot of politics, geopolitics and mentions tho

@LoganPredicts what markets do you trade?

Another good day of trading today. Feels like about the opposite of last month so very nice to have some good variance.

@AsymmInvesting Thanks!

@LoganPredicts Unreal call on your part

@PredMTrader Real mentions traders remember the last Asia trip

This week will separate the real ones from the fakes

@BobbyAllyn Tho taxes in MN are egregious so it would likely be doing traders a favor if MN kicks them out of the state so they can go to somewhere with lower taxes.

Incredibly stupid bill that, as written seems like it would make it so I am committing a felony if I trade as I normally do while visiting my parents in Minnesota. Only thing this bill will accomplish is forcing all PM traders to move out of the state (know several people needing to consider this now).

A bill banning prediction markets in Minnesota is on its way to the governor. It would be the first state to pass a law criminalizing Kalshi and Polymarket. It makes it a felony "to host or advertise a prediction market in the state" mprnews.org/story/2026/05/…

@NathanMeininger Don’t forget the vibes. Gotta be locked in to the vibes

Me when somebody asks me how I’m able to trade prediction markets full time

After my first ever losing month last month, I have re locked in and thankfully am off to a better start this month. Secured my 2nd biggest win ever the other day on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire.

A one sided offer from Putin of an “Easter truce” for “humanitarian considerations” as was the situation when they clarified the market last year is very different from a much more official 3 day ceasefire u.s as mediator. If they want to exclude ceasefires on holidays they should write/have clarified that last year, but I don’t think mis applying the humanitarian pause clause to an exclude an actual ceasefire from counting would have been good practice.

@LoganPredicts So what prevented them from resolving it as YES at the same time last May? The situation was the same.

I’m glad to wake up and see that the ceasefire markets resolved as YES - that means the war in Europe has ended... or not? 🤨 Maybe in some imaginary Polymarket world that’s true, but in reality - it’s not. Essentially, the market resolved solely because of a statement by Trump - the media picked up the loud headline, and the market settled. Even though I didn’t hold a single share in those markets, the precedent itself is truly terrible.

@prophet_notes Resolution was correct based on the rules as they had then IMO. Rules didn’t have any requirement for intent to end war or negotiations etc.

I woke up to see Russia x Ukraine ceasefire markets resolved to Yes. Something I didn't really expect, even though I held a small amount of Yes shares I bought weeks ago for an entirely different reason. Precedents, spirit of the market, and the rules themselves were clear that short-term truces / humanitarian pauses wouldn't count. The market was specifically created to forecast a ceasefire related to a negotiated end of the war. It could have been a 30 day ceasefire, during which negotiations for peace are taking place. It could have been an indefinite ceasefire, aka a peace deal. The key here is the intent to end the war. The 3 day ceasefire announced hours ago didn't meet any of the criteria for a Yes resolution. There is no intent to end the war during the ceasefire time. There are no final negotiations taking place. In fact, as far as we know, there is no meeting taking place between Ukraine / US and Russia. Additionally, for reasons that for now are beyond me, the markets were effectively halted with no prior information, before a clarification had been issued. Many traders and market makers were trapped holding shares they didn't intend to hold until the resolution. Too much has happened now to find a perfect solution. But at the very least, we need a serious explanation from the Polymarket team. This is the first time the market has been resolved against precedent, making trading on the platform suddenly exponentially more risky. Refunds for No holders are also entirely justified. And ultimately, after years of complaints, it's time to fix the rules and resolutions system. We've lived through many absurd decisions and resolutions, but one thing was always certain - the markets cannot resolve against precedent. Now, with this axiom no longer holding, there is really no way to understand how the market will resolve going forward. This was one of the biggest markets on the platform, and the most consequential one. It was the basis for all other ceasefire markets. It was a forecast on the arguably the most important global event currently unfolding. If not properly addressed, the consequences for Polymarket and the wider prediction markets community and industry could be tragic.

@BentakeMik96761 @buyuntilzero @GenaTheCroco @Polymarket Nice and well done prediction. I had like 12k shares from when there was some chatter of this a few days ago and then picked up 88k more May and June market today after announcement.

@LoganPredicts @buyuntilzero @GenaTheCroco @Polymarket Nice +2k for me. Bet on the May market yesterday lol

🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 The @Polymarket archival of ceasefire markets is just temporary

@CarOnPolymarket Glad we got PEACE IN EASTERN EUROPE. Been getting brain damage following PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST all month so was nice to have a nice and easy world peace trade win.

Trump just announced a ceasefire in Ukraine, mutually agreed with Zelensky and Putin. I made $17,000 in this market. Predict Peace on Polymarket and you will be rewarded Over the past 2 years I probably made around $300,000+ predicting peace Great feeling!

@BentakeMik96761 @buyuntilzero @GenaTheCroco @Polymarket That’s what it sounds like tho I will wait to be happy with certainty until the shares are back in my account lol. Should be about +$70k for me so possible new record market

@buyuntilzero @LoganPredicts @GenaTheCroco @Polymarket So Yes bettors won?

@buyuntilzero @GenaTheCroco @Polymarket It was pretty much guaranteed clari before as well they just use that language but wouldn't skip clarifying this.

@LoganPredicts @GenaTheCroco @Polymarket This means guaranteed clari, earlier they didn't guarantee clari. They just said if clari comes 4pm. At least that

@Polymarket Yea everyone is waiting on discord fix for an update on your accidentally archived Ukraine ceasefire market and it’s clarification that was due at 4pm

NEW: Discord is experiencing major outages.

@GenaTheCroco Wait rlly or does search show incorrect info for this? I think the rules look the same for May and June from the SS I took before hidden.

June and 2027 ceasefire 🇷🇺🇺🇦 markets resolved YES, May NO. Thanks for playing

@EventWavesIO @tsybka @GenaTheCroco @DonaldJTrumpJr @mustafap0ly Is there a clarification anywhere? I can not see anything and would like to know how it was clarified.

@LoganPredicts @tsybka @GenaTheCroco @DonaldJTrumpJr @mustafap0ly That's right

🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 Polymarket has nuked Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire markets. They are archived and the money will be returned in the way they see fit. They probably got a call from @DonaldJTrumpJr

@TheWolfOfPoly @CarOnPolymarket Bro I am dying rn and also have no idea what’s going on with the ceasefire market. Does anyone know?

@CarOnPolymarket Bro we need a telegram polyalpha group rn 😭