Stocks and Flows

@invest091 Does this make you more interested in this one? deathbyclawd.com/?url=tyler%20t…

Just found a wild site: “Death by Claude.” You type in a company and it scores AI disruption risk from 0-100. $CRM came in at 42 (sweating): • Pricing audacity: 97 • Replaceable: 55 • Moat depth: 28 Has anyone else played around with the tool?

@cpgrabow Wow I never thought I would see the day

"There have been calls for this for two decades now. Let's get rid of [the Jones Act]. It's antiquated, it hurts communities...it just doesn't make sense to have anymore."

@fiscal_ai #chartcrime

Interactive Brokers v. Charles Schwab Why is IBKR growing accounts so much faster than Schwab? $IBKR $SCHW

@FreightWaves @grok do people in red states drive more than people in blue states?

The headlines are panicking, but the math tells a different story. Even with a 60-cent jump in gasoline, the average consumer only sees a $500–$600 increase over an entire year for every $1/gallon hike. Full Episode: vist.ly/4v56x

@ProfKayaFinance It always confuses me why it’s always compared to revenue. As stated, the impact is on dilution, so the relevant metric to display should be dilution %.

Cybersecurity $CRWD, $NET, $ZS, $PANW ve $S SBC/ Gelir yüzdesi 👀 Hisse bazlı tazminat (SBC), özellikle teknoloji ve SaaS şirketlerinde çalışanlara nakit yerine hisse senedi, RSU veya opsiyon şeklinde verilen ücretin muhasebeleştirilmiş halidir. Bu gider non-cash (nakit çıkışı yaratmayan) bir kalem olsa da, hissedarları seyreltme (dilution) yoluyla gerçek bir maliyet oluşturur.

@eastdakota The next time you hear someone saying that moats are all that matter in investing, point them to this chart. Vail is one of the widest moat businesses in the world - no new major mountain builds in ~40 years - and yet the widest moat in the world can’t save bad mgmt.

Vail Resorts ($MTN) likely to open tomorrow down to where if you invested 10 years ago you’d have done as well putting your money in a hole. It’s time for a change to become more asset-light, sell off resorts, and allow character and differentiation to return to skiing.

@philbak1 @MauiBoyMacro Trust is probably more valuable than what you are actually saving by having dental insurance.

@MauiBoyMacro My trusted one no longer takes my insurance 🙃

Routine trip to the dentist turns into a two hour aggressive sales pitch to get all kinds of work done so they can charge me and my insurance

@SamRo @KevRGordon Well look at that

.@KevRGordon on stock vs flow schwab.com/learn/story/wh…

But they haven’t fully transitioned yet. From the call “the expanded functionality available through the CargoWise Value Packs, particularly embedded AI, driving measurable productivity and risk reduction, creates a strong incentive to transition ahead of commitment agreement expiry. Importantly, this cohort represents approximately 30% of our CargoWise revenue”

@TechFundies They had a combination of seat based and transaction based pricing for some time. Haven’t been involved recently, but it sounds like their change to value packs is what fully transitions to transaction pricing.

WiseTech is an Australian company that also just announced up to 50% layoffs in engineering / customer support due to AI. They have 2 businesses: CargoWise is a software logistics solution (freight forwarding, customs and compliance forms / processes, inventory and trucking ops). e2open is a supply chain transaction system they acquired recently. They basically converted all their contracts to transactions and removed any ties to seat-based fees. From my very limited understanding, this seems forward thinking as their clients were people booking shipping jobs / filing customs duties. So AI could automate some of these seats but they want to be paid on value delivered. Sounds like they just went to all clients and said we are repricing contracts by a different metric that still ties to your business usage and it all went a-ok. (Fwiw, many enterprise SaaS companies have been or probably will be moving in this direction as well). They also highlighted the incredible progress of coding tools and aim to reduce product development staff by 50%. They also will work on their own AI customer support which references their large libraries detailing customs codes, etc. and may reduce headcount by up to 50% depending on success of chatbot. Sounds like AI perfect fit here as support reps have to reference reams of custom duties rules, etc. Also worth noting this is a tech company so it has internal capabilities to build its own. While the headcount reductions are worse for the broader economy, the implications for SaaS may be constructive. The company transitioned its revenue from seats to value in the form of transactions overnight w/ no revenue impact, business potentially grows more quickly as revenue model more tied to customer success and not just customer hiring, and margins go up as they apply AI internally. Notes -New commercial model rolled out to 95% of customers and charge on transactional basis. Their core businesses is pretty transactional – freight forwarding / customs, geo-compliance for tax, inventory and truck operation, supply chain management software. No longer charging per seats and entirely based on transactions. -Can deliver greater output in shorter time frames with smaller AI-enabled teams. Finding new models are 2-10x more productive. -AI is executing code reviews, generating test cases, resolving defects, etc. Highlighted Anthropic Opus 4.6 and Open.AI Codex 5.3 -Starting in 2H of this year will reduce staffing in product development / customer support by up to 50%. -Have internally built customer support agent trained on all their data and think AI chat will take over more work. -CargoWise sw uses AI to classify documents for which customs are due. -Core CargoWise business grew 9% yy w/ 51% EBITDA margins. Including E2Open, total rev grew 7% yy w/ 38% EBITDA margins. -Discussion about one of their customers having built WiseTech sw inhouse and transitioning to that.

@EarningsB4Hugs @SFarringtonBKC @AnthropicAI Domestic surveillance is illegal. Fiduciary responsibility does not trump legal responsibility.

@SFarringtonBKC @AnthropicAI But I agree with the principles per se. That’s all.

Good on @AnthropicAI to hold the line. Tough but right call.

You have to respect the Euro commitment to not ever working on weekends.

@SportsToonsPlus @JakeAsmanShow @uSTADIUM Ah yes, Hackenburg was the problem with the Jets all these years. It def was not the complete ineptitude of the entire Jets organization.

@JakeAsmanShow @uSTADIUM Well, we know he can’t be any worse than Christian Hackenburg was for us…

If Drew Allar performs well at the Combine… would you take him with a Day 2/3 pick? #Jets

I think we might very well look back on Feb 25, 2026 as a very significant day in the history of logistics technology. So as to not make this a vaguepost, I'm referring to WiseTech's decision to lay off a third of its workforce over the next year+ due to AI.

@sharptechpod I appreciate the references to shipping on this one, but I knew the analogy was working overtime when I heard “when you walk up to a dock with a container” 😂

The Roots of a Global Memory Shortage, Thick, Thin and Apple, Shopify is Fine, Actually sharptech.fm/member/episode…

@SamQuinnCBS Well they could already do it with free agents now and they don’t.

I’m going to keep asking this until someone gives me a satisfying answer. When the next Victor Wembanyama or Cooper Flagg comes along, what is to stop Nike from paying that guy a bunch of extra money to sign with the Lakers or Knicks if there’s no draft?

LISTEN CLOSELY: Rep. Massie just said the quiet part out loud. The reason they're hiding the Epstein files? "Epstein had close ties to our own intelligence agencies and Israel's intelligence agencies." This is the real story

@michaelbatnick High concentration stability

Wild market. We haven't seen anything like this since the dotcom bubble burst. Over the last 8 sessions, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have decline 7% or more in a single day. The average drawdown when that happens is 34%. Right now we're 1.5% below the all-time high.

@atelicinvest @tommyr345 Yea the OP thought he was making a well reasoned point, it’s prob an indication he shouldn’t be taken too seriously.

@tommyr345 Why is the marginal cost of code dropping a massive net negative for your median enterprise software co?

With SaaS I think issue is marginal cost of software production has collapsed, this is permanent, structural shift. And now rightly, or wrongly, fundies are also very uncertain about medium term say 2-4 years for all these businesses, so they've hiked discount rates & lowered terminal rates, so you can try argue with market & buy SaaS, but the multiples are not going to be re-rated higher again, those days are permanently gone, so you'll have to rely on old-fashioned EPS growth to make money