@MisterMCAP “Opportunity Pipeline” it’s not a given. Still impressive though
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GlA
75 posts
YTD returns crossed over 500% today.
Despite significant macro sell off due to Iran war.
And with no margin.
Pretty sure I'm outperforming people that charge $5k+ per year for research and technical signals?
Some of the big YTD drivers:
> AI supply chain bottlenecks make up the bulk e.g. $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $TSEM, $IQE, $SOI, $AEHR
> $SNDK and Samsung; with rocketing memory prices/supply constraints
> Other random momentum trades like $SATL, $SIDU; front running the SpaceX IPO
I plan on sharing more of my thought process going forwards like I have this week with some Taiwanese/Space stocks.
Still very new to X, but I'm getting more accustomed to sharing my thoughts. Please bear with me!
Let me know if you have any questions though, always happy to answer as many as I can. I'm enjoying interacting with you all :)
(And no, I do not have any paid discords or signal services, those are all scams. All my ideas and thoughts will be posted right here on @X)
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If you think photonics is big, you aren’t prepared for what’s coming next
Few understand
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@Ashton_1nvests There seems to be no end of demand tho. I wouldn’t listen to that cyclical rule and listen closely to what is actually coming for the next few years
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This is exactly why you have to understand the cycle.
A 4.6x forward P/E on $MU doesn’t always mean it’s cheap…
It usually means earnings are near a peak.
Memory is cyclical.
Low P/E = high risk
High P/E = opportunity
Most investors learn this the hard way.
Blossom@meetblossomapp
Have you ever seen a company grow this fast and trade this cheap? Micron is projecting +219% YoY growth next quarter. Forward Multiple: 4.6x $MU
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My dad’s most bullish stock?
$PL at $3, which is up over 996.5% in 18 months.
I bought 1 single share for fun.
Because I didn’t think Planet Labs would grow revenue.
I ended up long $RKLB instead.
Planet Labs is now up over 10 times, and now I‘n left with a lot of regrets.
FYI: They liked $COIN at $35-40 and early $TSLA as well, I didn’t listen to any of them.
Lesson learned:
Sometimes your parents are better investors than you are. Especially when you’re a mirror of them.
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The Eye of the Market: You find undervalued stocks (the 💍). Big Influencers (Nazgûl) spot it, retail hordes follow. Momentum drives price to fair value (Mount Doom), where the edge is destroyed. Letting go before greed takes over. Follow The Fellowship of the Ring,not the Nazgûl
Moody@MoodyWriter13
I’m the ghost trader of @aleabitoreddit. First she picked up my $SOI Soitec idea, now $SIVE too. Great that my followers could enter much cheaper, but she hasn’t reacted to a single one of my posts. Pretty pathetic. x.com/felixschreibe1…
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I’m long $SIVE at $140M.
I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed.
$SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers.
Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck.
But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles.
They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova.
And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA.
Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally.
$POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers…
But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?
It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B.
So now at $130m:
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- You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET.
- Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI.
And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential.
On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”.
And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers."
Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come.
I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.
It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week.
Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo.
Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in.
Downside risk:
- execution (as always)
- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others.
- $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed.
I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC.
Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier.
When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M.
I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck).
But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up.
Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers.
If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures.
Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated.
Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622.
This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI.
TLDR:
InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations.
$SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp.
I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst).
The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.
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@TradexWhisperer You hold any options giving that you’re that bullish on memory ?
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$MU "What is the real bottleneck in HBM3E/HBM4 production that the market is not yet pricing in?"
The question sounds technical. The answer is actually very simple once you understand one number: HBM consumes 3 to 4 times more wafer per bit than standard DRAM.
You do not just build more memory. You build memory that is fundamentally more wafer-hungry than anything that came before it. Every HBM chip stacked on an AI accelerator consumes 3 to 4x the wafer per bit of a conventional DRAM. That means to double HBM output, the industry you need at least 4x more capacity.
A new leading-edge fab takes at least 3 to 5 years from groundbreaking to meaningful output. That means the supply constraints visible today do not get resolved in 2026. They do not get resolved in 2027. The runway for elevated pricing and premium margins stretches further than most models on Wall Street currently assume. Every quarter the market expects relief and does not get it is another quarter of pricing power for the producers who already have capacity in the ground.
Now add the yield problem and the bull case gets even stronger.
HBM yield is not comparable to standard DRAM yield. It is a completely different category of difficulty. In an HBM stack, you take multiple DRAM dies, bond them vertically through thousands of through-silicon vias, and treat the entire stack as a single unit. If any one die in that stack fails, the entire stack fails. You throw the whole thing away.
Yield losses multiply across the stack rather than occurring in isolation. A 95% individual die yield sounds impressive until you stack twelve dies and realize your effective stack yield drops to roughly 54%. That wafer consumption number of 3 to 4x suddenly looks conservative once yield losses compound through the stack. This is not a problem that money alone solves. It is a problem that only time, process learning, and engineering discipline solves. Every quarter of yield learning already accumulated by the producers ahead of the curve is a quarter that late movers simply cannot buy back.
And the supply constraints do not end with HBM itself.
SOCAMM2 is coming. CXL DRAM is coming. Both demand the same leading-edge DRAM process capacity and both serve the datacenter market with growing urgency. As inference workloads scale and memory pooling architectures mature, CXL DRAM becomes a serious incremental revenue stream competing for the same constrained wafer supply. SOCAMM2 brings high-density memory to next-generation server platforms and that ramp adds to the addressable market, not away from it.
Then there is the consumer catalyst waiting in the background. When rate cuts arrive and PC and smartphone upgrade cycles accelerate, consumer DRAM demand snaps back hard. And when both datacenter and consumer cycles run simultaneously against a backdrop of structurally constrained wafer supply, the pricing environment becomes something the market has not modeled yet.
So when someone asks why HBM supply cannot simply catch up to demand, the honest answer is: because the physics will not allow it, the yield math will not allow it, and the competing memory demands will not allow it.
The market prices in a ramp. It has not priced in the ceiling. It has not priced in the yield wall. And it has not priced in what happens when every datacenter memory technology competes for the same wafer supply at the same time.
So good luck waiting for 4x more fabs, 4x more packaging plants and 4x more HBM engineers, 95% yield on 12-die stacks, "all of the sudden."
Structural Shift
Trade Whisperer@TradexWhisperer
$MU I worked 21 years as an HBM, DRAM & NAND engineer. AMA is open. Ask me anything. I'll drop rare insights where I can.
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$RDDT is probably the most compelling dip buy at $138, ~$26.5B MC.
You don’t get more profitable + high growth than Reddit.
Forward 54% Y/Y growth rate coming off 70% ~$2.2B FY 2025 revenue.
Net profit margin is literally 34.7% of revenue and expanding because Reddit is so profitable.
Reddit gets sold off with the software bucket but has zero disruption from AI.
This is a money printer that is here to stay.
Price action makes you doubt your thesis sometimes, but the fundamentals of Reddit are way too compelling.
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@RobertGCart @oguzerkan There’s only one reason the CEO would buy shares. It’s meaningful in any way
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@oguzerkan The CEO of TTD has sold ~$500M in shares since 2001. So idk if this is very meaningful
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High-signal insider purchases this week:
- $MELI CFO, $100,000
- $SOFI CEO, $1 million
- $TTD CEO, $148 million
They are drastically undervalued and insiders just confirmed this.
Insiders may sell for many reasons, but they only buy if they believe the stock will go up.
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Feels like $AAOI ($7.5B MC) is one of the highest upside AI trades right now?
With photonics lot of institutions miss upstream bottlenecks $AXTI, so retail can spot them before they get priced in.
With AAOI, there’s a clear path to a $47B+ valuation from:
Economic moat:
> laser fab, the design, and the assembly
> tripling laser capacity in Texas
> made in America (some assembly in Taiwan but reshoring that to US in 2027)
Projections:
> $378m revenue per month in q2 2027
> guided 35-38% gross margins -> q3 40% gross margins
Demand:
> Hyperscalers buying out any capacity $AAOI / $LITE / $COHR can make
If they hit their 2027 H2 revenue target:
Laser Component Weight: 20% × 18.9x ( $LITE est. multiple) = 3.78x
· Assembly Component Weight: 80% × 8.5x (Innolight/Eoptolink Multiple) = 6.80x
· $AAOI’s Blended SOTP Multiple = 10.58x Forward Sales
You still get a $47.6B Market Cap if they deliver projections.
This is not including any potential Made in America premiums that get assigned to companies like $MU vs. SK Hynix.
And any margin expansion they get from optimizing the transceiver supply chain in-house.
Given the marketcap is a small $7.5B now, I don’t think markets will wait for q2 2027 to start pricing it in.
Is the $AAOI upside worth the execution risk?
To me: Yes, Unequivocally.
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Holy… How goated was this $EWY IV trade?
The South Korean Index volatility went from 32% -> 51% since posting 3 weeks ago.
I’m not as impressed if $AAOI doubles but this call on South Korea’s volatility was legendary.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel: Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models. $EWY long options seem mispriced. This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix). The stock swings 2-5+% a day, and is up 136.25% 1Y, despite priced like a normal index IV. Samsung is volatile. SK Hynix is volatile (eg. 65% - 80% est). But the combination of the two through the index is priced way less than both low beta $GOOGL (37.33%) and $AMZN (39.12%) at ~32% IV. I've been watching $EWY for a bit and it does look volatile. As for pricing my guess is MMs priced in IV based on historical averages (5-10 years), where the Korean index was completely flat. And were expecting calls 2 years out to revert to the mean. But this volatility should be the new norm as markets price in the new memory supercycle (eg. $TSM went from 30% IV to 46.2% IV). Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index. And the main benefit is vega expansion that you won't get from $KORU. You also can't get this option MM pinning like individual US stocks since this is Korea's national index and long term. TLDR: Individual components SK Hynix + Samsung are highly volatile. They're basically half of the index, but options in index are priced with low volatility, perhaps due to historical 5-10 year data. Long calls benefit from vega expansion that weren't priced in correctly as MM forward vol estimates are anchored too heavily on historical realized vol, which was low for $EWY over the past 5-10 years
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Well… this was probably the fastest 100%+ rally since $AXTI?
Feels like everything around me keeps going up 100%+ in short periods of time from $AAOI to $LITE.
Anyone suffering from this problem?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Was the first to talk about $AXTI in relation to photonics BOM/supply chains: $IQE is very interesting too as one of the only Western suppliers. Basically if you look at photonics flow on $GOOGL TPU/hyperscaler ASICs kinda looks like this (very likely, but undisclosed): Optical Transceivers (highest BOM): Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/Sumitomo/JX -> $IQE (Epi-Wafers) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (Contract Manufacturing) -> $GOOGL TPU Merhcant optical supply chain: ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX -> → $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> Innolight/Eoptolink -> $GOOGL So if you want moonshot-type photonics BOM / price-hikes stocks deeper upstream in the photonics BOM: $AXTI, $IQE and your way to go. $AXTI had terrible fundamentals before but the recent Northland fundraising round cemented its run. $IQE has terrible fundamentals now (Net debt £23.5 million) but is probably one of the most critical parts of the supply chain. If they manage to sell their Taiwan operations, wouldn't be surprised if it went up quite a bit just from their inp business. There's £18m convertible notes (which is basically nothing), then there's 120 to 154m new shares (~12% to 15%), which is also kinda nothing relative to current size. On the other hand, others $LITE and Innolight are probably more established. TLDR: $IQE -> seems critical to Western supply chains, $130MC. Net debt, if they sell Taiwan business -> strong re-rating or they might just dilute you anyway. But if the Taiwan business fails to be sold, probably expect to be diluted to oblivion like Wolfspeed. So huge, huge, risk ad do you own research into risks. But $AXTI and $IQE might are personally interesting to me (I do own $IQE).
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Feels like everyone is doom-posting KOSPI saying:
> “Look at the chart, it can’t keep going up like this!”
> Memory is a black hole for demand ( $SNDK taking 3Y preorders )
> $EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, not a representation of the Korean economy
> Like saying Taiwan Index is a bubble because the index that tracks $TSM and Mediatek goes up.
> Memory demand/AI doesn’t just disappear because of a War in Iran, but it does get more expensive.
> Increased energy from crude/LNG get passed down to hyperscalers, not eaten up in opex.
It’s looks to be fear selling and deleveraging (3x ETFs and 10x likely got wiped out today) rather than materially operational (slight bearish headwind, but not enough for -30%).
SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range.
If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix’s operating profits for example would be ~$300B.
They’ll be sitting on too much money by 2028 as a cushion if memory prices drops. (and not even considering demand becomes structural).
Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation, especially as nand/dram prices get hiked again recently. More of a question of timing the bottom.
It’s times like these logic matter more than irrational headline selling.
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@aleabitoreddit Isn’t that a pointless thought when you can invest in $AXTI
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I feel like Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is a free 2-3x if people have the patience to wait a year?
They're a genuine monopoly over CPO for substrates.
Lot of folks looking at Shin-Etsu but they're just licensing Soitec's stuff.
It's not a current materials bottleneck like $AXTI, but a demand one (they have none right now since CPO hasn't scaled up).
But we all know it's coming later in 2027 -> 2028.
Main thing is opportunity cost, but just a matter of when markets want to frontrun it. Still better than your index returns imo?
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