Looking Glass Capital

introducing camera controls for Seedance 2. you're the director now. write your prompt. choose from 32 camera techniques. mitte handles the rest for you. examples + workflow 👇🏼

Hot categories have a seductive halo effect. LPs increase the available capital, the volume of comps grows, fundraising friction falls. Capital flows, everything goes up and to the right. In these moment, most managers seem to forget that the job of venture capital is managing risk. If venture was a perfect market, all investors would have access to roughly the same returns regardless of stage. But they don't, because it isn't. Earlier investors consistently deliver better returns than later investors because they are able to exploit how inefficiently the market prices risk. Simply put, properly managing more risk means generating greater returns. "Venture capital and buyout funds with more idiosyncratic risk exhibit higher returns. For venture capital funds, the quartile with the lowest idiosyncratic risk has a quarterly alpha of -1.09%, the highest an alpha of 2.52% per quarter." The Price of Diversifiable Risk in Venture Capital and Private Equity, by Michael Ewens, Charles M. Jones and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf "More risk", in this context, means investing in novel ideas, moonshots, scientific breakthroughs. Frontier technology. Outliers. Idiosyncracy. It does not mean jumping on a hot category where idiosyncratic risk is eliminated by herd dynamics. "Legible to capital" = alpha erosion. Obvious to idiots.

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