Lucid Money Letter

@StockMKTNewz 13% of trades on a retail-facing platform is a marketing metric, it measures how well the IPO moved individual investors, not how institutional demand reacted. The pop retail is chasing at +21% today is the return institutional allocants already captured before the open.

Public just said almost 13% of all the stock trades made on their platform today were on SpaceX $SPCX stock

@DeItaone "70% of indicators triggered" sounds precise until you ask how many prior instances at that threshold actually preceded a peak within 12 months versus a continued rally.

BOFA WARNS STOCK MARKET TOP RISKS ARE GROWING Bank of America is urging investors to take profits, saying roughly 70% of its bear-market indicators have been triggered, a level consistent with past market peaks. The bank warns U.S. stocks are broadly expensive, speculative activity is increasing, and market gains are becoming increasingly concentrated. While BofA still sees opportunities in individual stocks, it remains cautious on the broader S&P 500 and targets 7,100 by year-end.

A 40% VIX spike sounds alarming until you note the base, mid-15s is historically suppressed territory. Landing at 21.5 puts vol near its long-run average. The move is dramatic precisely because the starting point was so compressed. Whether this finds a floor above 20 or reverts to the teens is the actual tell.

CBOE Volatility Index $VIX soared nearly 40% on Friday, its biggest increase since April 2025 📈📈

@KobeissiLetter At 27.5% long-term share with no recession on the books, the composition problem is worse than the headline. This metric historically peaks 12–18 months after a downturn. Reaching those levels mid-expansion flags structural mismatch, the kind monetary policy can't fix.

More Americans are stuck without work for longer: The number of Americans unemployed for 27+ weeks rose by +155,000 in May to 1.99 million, the highest since December 2021. YoY, this figure has surged +524,000, the largest annual increase since August 2021. As a % of unemployment, this metric is up to 27.5%, the highest since December 2021. This percentage has risen +9.0 points since the start of 2023 and is now above every post-recession peak, excluding 2008 and 2020. An increasing number of Americans are struggling to find employment.

@Barchart $30T at a standard 25x revenue multiple implies SpaceX would need to generate roughly $1.2T annually, more than the entire global commercial aviation industry produces today.

$1.75 trillion valuation. $75 billion raise. $135 per share. The largest IPO in stock market history, pricing Thursday, trading Friday on Nasdaq as SPCX. The question the tweet is actually asking is a math problem, and the math is brutal. The S-1 is now public. SpaceX posted $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 with a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion. At $1.75 trillion, retail is buying in at 93x trailing revenue. There is no P/E. The adjusted EBITDA multiple, the most generous lens, is 265x. This is not a valuation anchored in 2025 reality. It is a fully-priced bet on a specific 2030–2035 execution scenario. Here is what that scenario requires. Fortune estimates SpaceX needs to grow roughly 60x in sales over a decade to justify the valuation, a benchmark no major company has achieved from this starting scale. The bull case rests almost entirely on one segment: Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 (61% of SpaceX's total), posting an operating profit of $4.4 billion at a 39% margin, making it the only consistently profitable segment on a GAAP basis. But the internal subsidy chain is the thing to watch. In Q1 2026 alone, SpaceX spent $10 billion in capex: $7.7 billion on AI infrastructure $1.3 billion on connectivity $1 billion on space. Starlink's full-year 2025 operating profit was $4.4 billion. The company is burning two years of Starlink profits per quarter building Grok's compute stack. That is the 2030 scenario: retail investors underwriting the xAI ambitions at 93x revenue. The unit economics compound the problem. Average revenue per Starlink subscriber fell 18% to $81/month between 2023 and 2025, even as the individual subscriber base quadrupled, reflecting a deliberate trade of ARPU for global volume. Amazon Kuiper has 7,700 satellites planned. Blue Origin is entering in 2027. ARPU compression is structural, not cyclical. Starlink's brand value was estimated at $5.19 billion in 2026, the first time it cracked the Brand Finance top 500, but competition is scaling fast. Run the 2030 numbers honestly. At 30% revenue CAGR, aggressive but not unreasonable, SpaceX reaches roughly $69 billion in revenue by 2030. At a compressed but still-premium 30x multiple (what a mature satellite-plus-AI company might trade at), the market cap is $2.07 trillion. That is 18% upside over four years, or roughly 4% annualized, before any lock-up drag or dilution from ongoing equity comp. For your $10,000 to double by 2030, SpaceX needs to sustain the current 93x multiple on dramatically higher revenue, a scenario that has no public-markets precedent at this scale.

@unusual_whales Deal is bearish crude. Iranian barrels flood back in. Strike is the opposite. "Either way we win" only works if you're long volatility.

Trump on Iran: "We're very close to having a deal — and if we don't have a deal, we'll do it one way or the other. Either way, we win."

@Polymarket Trump walked away from the last deal in 2018 while Iran was fully compliant. Why would they trust that sanctions relief sticks this time?

JUST IN: Trump announces he will not unfreeze Iranian assets or lift sanctions until a deal is reached.

@DeItaone The incentive isn't monetary theory, with ~$36T in federal debt, every 100bps in rate increases adds roughly $350B in annual interest expense. It's fiscal arithmetic dressed up as price stability.

TRUMP ON FED: THERE'S NO REASON TO RAISE INTEREST RATES

This chart ends at 2023. By Q3 2025, Fed data puts the top 1% share at 31.7%, the highest on record since tracking began in 1989. The driver is asset composition: top 1% holds ~54% of U.S. equities; middle class holds ~60% of net worth in primary residence. Every equity bull run mechanically writes this chart further in one direction.

The top 1% now holds a larger share of U.S. wealth than the entire middle class

Lynch's "10% every two years" is a cross-cycle average, not a statistic derived from pullbacks following parabolic runs, which historically produce far worse distributions. Nasdaq 2000, Nikkei 1990, U.S. tech in 2022: the first red day after a vertical move is sometimes Day 1 of a multi-year unwind. Important to be aware of the risks.

The stock market had a down day after a parabolic run … you know what that means Here’s Peter Lynch talking about dealing with pullbacks in the stock market

@Polymarket National Amusements controls ~77% of Paramount's voting stock on roughly 10% economic ownership. Shari Redstone decided this deal. Union mobilization doesn't change that math.

JUST IN: Hollywood workers & unions are mobilizing against the Paramount-Skydance deal over job loss and antitrust concerns.

@StockMKTNewz Worth separating the messenger from the mechanism. HBM capacity requires cannibalizing commodity DRAM lines, and all three suppliers face 18-24 month timelines from capex to output, the structural case holds on its own.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just said that he thinks the memory shortage will last for several more years

@BullTheoryio The $1M loan to Elon was not what generated the stake. Antonio's Valor Equity Partners put $76M+ into SpaceX as an institutional bet in 2008, that's the position worth ~$90B today.

"Superapp" is the wrong frame. WeChat's moat was payments infrastructure and a captive social graph, not feature bundling. The actual play is agentic orchestration *beneath* the app layer, which poses a structural threat to Apple and Google's distribution lock that Meta and Uber's superapp attempts never came close to.

OPENAI INTENDS TO TRANSFORM CHATGPT INTO A "SUPERAPP" THAT COMBINES CODING TOOLS AND AI AGENTS - FT

@Polymarket Lithuania was targeting between 5-6% of GDP on defense, more than any NATO member currently spends, including the U.S. Germany's coalition collapsed in 2024 over a €60B fiscal dispute. Same mechanism, different line item.

NEW: Lithuania’s coalition government has collapsed after infighting over defense plans.

The $8T short-end concentration wasn't passive drift, Yellen's Treasury deliberately over-indexed on T-bills in 2023-24 and failed to lock in lower coupons on long paper. Extending duration now fixes rollover risk but permanently cements those high coupon costs, Treasury is rate-exposed either way, just on different time horizons.

The US government is becoming increasingly dependent on private investors to finance its growing debt burden: Privately held US Treasury debt maturing within 1 year is up to a record $8.3 trillion. This figure has DOUBLED over the last 5 years, reflecting the government's growing reliance on short-term financing from private investors. As more debt shifts into Treasury bills, a larger amount must be refinanced every year, leaving borrowing costs increasingly sensitive to interest rates and investor demand. At the same time, foreign central banks are reducing their share of Treasury holdings, making private investors absorb a larger portion of new issuances. As a result, the Treasury market is becoming increasingly dependent on investor demand and liquidity conditions rather than the stable long-term buyers that have traditionally anchored it. With US public debt at an all-time high, even modest disruptions in funding markets could have an outsized impact on borrowing costs. Treasury refinancing risks are intensifying.

Nasdaq's "Fast Entry" rule, adopted May 2026, gets SpaceX into the Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days at $1.75T. The S&P 500's 12-month floor has no equivalent carve-out, making mid-2027 the hard earliest entry. Nasdaq rewrote its rules before this IPO. The S&P committee didn't. That's where the 2027 timeline comes from.

⚡ INSIGHT: SpaceX may have to wait until 2027 to join the S&P 500, per Reuters.

The tax credit pause is the visible lever. The real constraint is power. PJM's interconnection queue has years of backlog, and a single hyperscale campus draws 200-500MW. Illinois may be the first state to blink publicly, but the binding limit isn't political will, it's grid capacity that no tax credit was ever going to solve.

NEW: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker orders a pause on state tax credits for data centers.

4.3% U-3 rate has been range-bound between 4.3–4.5% since July 2025, but U-6, which captures discouraged workers and involuntary part-timers sits at 8.1%, above pre-pandemic norms, with long-term unemployed accounting for 27.5% of all jobless. Two numbers, two different labor markets.

The unemployment rate is at 4.3%, per ABC