Kiz
5.4K posts
Kiz
@MIT1991_2
Behavioral economics. IMO participant. phd math and epidemiology
Katılım Aralık 2009
997 Takip Edilen839 Takipçiler
Today is possibly the worst day for me & my family.
@CanadaKuwait please help.
Please pray for my brother.
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@ICannot_Enough @StonkKing4 @grok I don’t know the speed limit on that road, but seems like Tesla is flying. No? Maybe Tesla was not even visible when white decided to take a left turn
Also Tesla is not in its lane..
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@StonkKing4 Hey @grok: do vehicles on high speed main roads generally have the right-of-way? Should the driver who accelerated his white vehicle from a driveway into the path of the oncoming red car be issued a moving violation ticket for failure to yield? Answer in 69 or fewer words.
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$TSLA did not "see" car in front of it
🤡 crashed full speed into other vehicle
🤡 Where were Tesla advanced safety features and automatic emergency braking to prevent this?
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Tesla's FSD looks dramatically safer only because they're comparing serious crashes in new cars on mostly good roads (with human supervision) against all crashes in an old mixed fleet on every kind of road. Adjust for those factors and the '8x safer' claim falls apart — it's not a like-for-like human vs. AI comparison.
FSD vs. manual Tesla driving with active safety features → The advantage shrinks significantly
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Tesla reports one major collision every 5.3 million miles with FSD engaged. The US average: one every 660,000 miles. That's approximately 8x SAFER.
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Bankers were likely opposed to the idea and advised against it. Retail investors, who are exempt from lock-up periods, would probably sell quickly if the stock trades above the IPO price.
It would be nice if they implemented multiple staggered lock-up periods for retail investors, releasing small percentages at different times.
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I don't understand why many still buy options, when math and stats are always against them. Yes some may profit here and there like many retail kids do, but in average buyers lose money.
Only way to make money is premium selling (theta decay), primarily through delta-neutral short strangles (or iron condors) sold on high-IV underlyings, managed around 3-5 weeks.
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I lost on my short bet for alpha. It happens. I think we have entered into bubble regime. BUT always own beta at your risk target remains my highest principle. All SPY? 60/40 60/20/20 I don't care as long as it's at your risk target. Get off twitter and live your life. BUT if you want to learn how I tweak my beta and trade alpha in a bubble regime read the stack in comments
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@Cobratate Great idea. Why not do 500M vs only 50m?
That is 25M a year. You can buy all Porsche Carrera GTs
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The US Gov is selling 30 year bonds at 5%.
Lifehack -
Take 50M cash and buy bonds, thats 2.5M a year for zero work.
Thats 208k a month. Enough to cover basic expenses like security team and cigars.
Then you just need another 500k a month to have a good life.
You're welcome.
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If some still manage to naked short and not delivered in well regulated US markets, now imagine 100s of off-chain exchanges w/o centralized governance that trade BTC. How do we know if exchange XYZ customers hold 20000 BTC? No way to know.
Only way to know is to ask all to move their BTC to their own wallet with their own keys, and only then you find out only 1k of 20K btc is avail. Rest have cool digital portfolio with $0 value.
Big exchanges publish proof-of-reserves (on-chain snapshots showing they control certain wallet addresses). But they probably own less than 20% BTC
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This is seriously genuinely NOT a shit post.
With saylor buying gobs of BTC, financed by MSTR and STRC buying which appears additive and not swaps, and ETF flow fine, and Clarity Act wins, who the heck is selling all the coins at 35% below ATH's? Its such a mystery to me.
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Financial math is relatively simple when you're single or married with no children or dependents.
The more dependents you have, the more complex it becomes. Will your seventh child land a normal job and become fully independent? What if your eighth has special needs — how long will they require support, and at what cost?
And just like that, the $50 million you thought would be more than enough suddenly can't even cover a third of their future expenses.
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People with $2,000,000 invested still stress about a $15,000 family vacation.
Not because they can't afford it.
Because they've never connected the portfolio to permission.
The number grew. The internal spending rules didn't.
So the same person who couldn't afford a $15K vacation at 32 still runs the same internal calculation at 48—even though the math changed completely.
Building wealth is the first problem. Learning to use it without guilt is the second. Most people only ever solve the first one.
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@DavidJSharette @Tesla @SawyerMerritt @DirtyTesLa @teslaownersSV @DMC_Ryan Very cool! Thanks for sharing
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@farzyness I think in just a few years, drones will handle most deliveries of packages under a certain weight — and they’ll be far more cost-efficient than traditional methods.
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McDonalds does not exist without the car.
Fast Food as an industry is impossible without transportation at scale. The economics of it would literally be impossible.
To offer Fast Food, you need A LOT of customers coming to your restaurant.
You cannot have A LOT of customers coming to your restaurant unless it's EASY for those customers to come to your restaurant.
That's what the car enabled - easy access to the world outside of your home.
Now think about AI the same as the car.
AI is a foundational technology - just like the car. Entire industries will be born because of it.
The question becomes - what are the businesses that don't exist yet - that will be gigantically massive - that are only possible BECAUSE of AI?
What businesses are born - and are ONLY born - when you have infinitely scalable intelligence?
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@BLKMDL3 @Teslarati @DBurkland @AaronS5_ @Tesla_AI @Tesla Impressive. Which model and year of 3 is it?
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WE SET THE NEW YORK CITY TO LA FSD CANNONBALL RUN RECORD!
Zero disengagements or human intervention on FSD v14.3.2 for 2,833 miles! 49:55:57, beating previous record by ~8.5 hours!
Huge shoutout to copilots @DBurkland @AaronS5_ for joining along. Videos coming soon. @Tesla_AI
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Dude, I'm not talking MU. I'm talking about how to invest long term and not just look one year forward. I've been long MU from the 70s and sold half around 400, had NVDA from the 20s. No, I had no clue that AI would impact both 4-5 years ago. But both had better PEG than TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, etc.
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3y TO 5Y? lol. 😂. 2 years ago the average estimate on MU for Q3 2026 was $1.50 EPS. Q3 2026 is this current quarter. MU is expected to announce over $20 EPS. So, 2 years ago wall st was off $20 EPS for one quarter. lol.
With all of that being said, estimates for FY 2029 are currently around $100 EPS. If MU does 3 years in a row of over $100 billion in profits, what forward pe do you think they deserve? I think that answer is simple. What other companies have done or will make $100 billion a year for 3 years, and what is their forward pe?
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Sometimes people forget that the valuation of companies should be largely tied to their revenues and profits, and future potential. Not their historical price charts.
If you didn't have a price chart history, which of these companies look undervalued and which appear overvalued to you?
Pick which number(s) are under or over-valued.
I'll reveal the companies in a subsequent post in an hour.
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This is huge.
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
The NHTSA has just officially announced that the 2026 @Tesla Model Y is the first vehicle model to pass the agency’s new advanced driver assistance system tests. 2026 Tesla Model Y vehicles, manufactured on or after Nov. 12, 2025, successfully met the new criteria for four newly integrated advanced safety tests: • Pedestrian automatic emergency braking • Lane keeping assistance • Blind spot warning • Blind spot intervention “Today’s announcement marks a significant step forward in our efforts to provide consumers with the most comprehensive safety ratings ever,” said NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison. “By successfully passing these new tests, the 2026 Tesla Model Y demonstrates the lifesaving potential of driver assistance technologies and sets a high bar for the industry. We hope to see many more manufacturers develop vehicles that can meet these requirements.”
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I’m selling stuff on eBay to pay for eBay
ebay.com/usr/ryan_5050
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@dampedspring Even if TD guarantees $20B and Roaring Kitty comes back tomorrow and pumps $GME to $75 ($30B) , trust me $ebay bod will still tell them please go fo.
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I get why people want to hate on this douchebag. But imho it's totally reasonable for a small company to buy a much much larger company with debt and equity issuance. Anyone with even a few years of skin in the game have seen leveraged buyouts and leveraged merger transactions. Frankly I even get the overlap between GameStop and EBay in terms of collectibles and other consumers stuff. People do leveraged buyouts/mergers for much less valid reasons. If you don't think the debt funding is secured sell $EBAY. If you don't think the deal is good for $GME shares because they are paying too much sell the share. But a 50/50 debt equity deal isn't outrageous.
Squawk Box@SquawkCNBC
“We are offering half cash, half stock, and we have the ability to issue stock in order to get the deal done," says $GME CEO @ryancohen on offering a bid for @eBay. Watch the full interview: cnb.cx/4n9TB4w
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@MartinShkreli You can print 1t more shares. it wont make a dent to GME market share, hence forgot about $56B bid to ebay.
If anyone can do that, then you and I can buy Spacex for $5T.
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the big issue here is the foolish false premise the interviewer (someone named sorkan?) made.
he made the rookie error of somehow thinking an acquirer has a limit as to how many shares they can issue to the acquiree.
Avi@AviFelman
For those that don't understand what happened here, the reporters asked a very stupid question. Ryan clearly stated that the transaction was going to take place using 50% cash 50% equity. We will need about ~55b to purchase Ebay so follow the math here. Gamestop has ~$9b on its balance sheet and a soft commitment of ~20b from a lender. So we're at ~29b. so for the rest Ryan is pledging the entire market cap of GME (~10b). That brings us to 39b total. From there, Ryan is going to sell his body on onlyfans, pray to god and beg the Ebay executives to "just take the deal man". That brings us to the total price of ~55b. The reporters are dishonest, fake news media strikes again.
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This was before Starlink had a name
Elon Musk@elonmusk
SpaceX is still in the early stages of developing advanced micro-satellites operating in large formations. Announcement in 2 to 3 months.
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When wife thinks I can't make Armenian food. Found out the guy asking is local so invited him over to try. I think it turned out really good.
- Lula (minced lamb) kebab, steak kebab, lamb chops, chicken kebab
- Sarma (grape leaves)
- Harissa (chicken porridge)
- Manti (Armenian dumplings)
- Tabbouleh
- Armenian salad
- Muhammara (red pepper dip)
- Mutabal (eggplant dip)
- Lavash (flatbread)
- Armenian style rice pilaf
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