MSFusionHV

@JamesSurowiecki The vast majority of people couldn't wisely manage a lot of money (even just hundreds of thousands) if their life depended on it. A complete lack of planning and being honest about what is truly needed vs what isn't at all. Gotta spend, spend, spend!

It's incredibly silly to spend $4 million a year when you know you'll be out of the league in 8 years (at most). But even so, if you bank $32 million, you can in fact make that last forever - with ease.

@zcabrams Wow, deeper friendships from behaving more stupidly! How appealing. These are just attempts to rationalize lack of self control for so many people. Nobody needs to drink.

derek thompsons recent article inspired me to read more about alcohol im shocked by the est impact vs current narrative for instance, 7-14 drinks per wk reduces life expectancy by only 6 mos (!!) moreover, the negative effect is possibly offset by gains from deeper friendships

@JamesSurowiecki Nobody truly needs it. They tell themselves they do as they lack self control and/or fall to peer pressure and couldn't stop if they wanted. Never drinking shows an impressive level of restraint.

The replies to this quite reasonable tweet are nutty. Having a couple of beers is not going to kill you - literally or figuratively.

@alphaarchitect Bonds clearly still provide diversification, just less. Better diversifiers would be trend, macro, and equity market neutral.

New Post: Bonds Seem to Not Diversify Anymore. Now What? alphaarchitect.com/bonds-seem-to-…

@Greenbackd Meh. As much as it could be satisfying in certain ways for a burst, there is a more than decent chance that this continues for maybe even a few more years. Timing is a loser's game. Just stay invested and (truly) highly diversified.

Interesting.

@MebFaber Like a lot of things.. truth is somewhere in the middle. Money can buy a certain level of happiness but it won't make all problems go away (not even close). A huge issue many people have is ever growing expectations which results in rarely being satisfied with enough.

Investing Quote of the Day: "Whoever said money can't buy happiness simply didn't know where to go shopping." - Bo Derek

@MebFaber @charliebilello Yes but worth keeping in mind that in a crash, all of these are going to be highly correlated. Even during an extended stagnation there is far from a guarantee that international or small caps will necessarily do well. This is where (true) alternatives come in and prove critical

👀 via @charliebilello

@DKThomp I think not drinking at all, especially never in the past (except that one first attempt likely from intense peer pressure) builds a lot of resilience and self control, which is something to be quite proud of. To each their own.

New newsletter: THE END OF BOOZE I like wine and cocktails. I also really like being alive. So I’m very motivated to understand the empirical relationship between moderate drinking and lifetime mortality. Fear of moderate drinking is surging among young people and some health influencers. No one should delude themselves into thinking alcohol is medicine. But the evidence that <8 drinks a week is a known danger has been dramatically oversold by health influencers. It is often based on mis-reading research conclusions and over-interpreting bad research with embarrassingly confidence intervals. open.substack.com/pub/derekthomp…

@LouisAnslow Plenty of what he says makes sense and is backed by some evidence. Does he stretch some of it? Sure. But I don't know how anyone could see the trends and not be concerned. Social media companies AND parents are both to blame.

We need a collective immune system for figures like Haidt. There needs to be a non-profit that is fulltime debunking moral entrepreneurs

@ShamsCharania Good luck with roster upgrades going forward when you have two guys who will be at nearly 70 percent of the cap. That'll be a massive hindrance. Unless Mobley takes a massive step forward, Cavs have almost no chance.

Reporting for NBA Today on Donovan Mitchell's early max extension with the Cleveland Cavaliers -- and both sides now turning full focus on roster upgrades:

@asymmetricinfo So easy for people to throw up their hands and give up and blame others/the system. They won't reflect on likely poor past decisions that lead to their current life conditions. Especially in US, there is so much excess. It can be incredibly powerful to find satisfaction in less.

I am starting to think that people really liked income compression, as a good independent of absolute consumption, and that this is why people are confused about the evolution of the middle class. It's not that they have less, it's that they see other people getting way more.

@EricBalchunas There will likely be another big extended crash similar to 2008 at some point. Only a matter of time. And of course so many people aren't prepared. The wise will have scaled back equity exposure and allocate more to alternatives like market neutral and trend.

I published a note today that I've been thinking about for months.. About how the US stock market has arguably become too big and too imp to fail.. It's basically America's retirement fund now and poss even the savior of social security which is expected to run out of money in less than 10yrs -Curr 55% of ppl own stocks, by far most in world. And w/ Trump Accounts bringing in 28 million add'l americans into stock ownership the vast majority of ppl (incl Top 1% (who own HALF of stock mkt), middle class and lower income) will have financial interest in the health of stock mkt and they're all voters = the political pressure to keep stocks out of a prolonged bear market is going to be very powerful. -As such I think there's good chance the Fed will buy equity ETFs in the next major downturn to support market and it will be common practice going fwd. China and Japan already do this. They may even target certain sectors or Capex cos with the purchases. -This is a massive variable that I feel like is a blind spot among the experts out there and why the bears get run over time and time again altho I think investors are onto it as evidenced by the persistent flows into ETFs during pullbacks as well as a survey of 1000 ppl showing 3/4 of them are confident the Fed will bail out markets in next crisis. -This is just one byproduct of the 'Nothing Stops This Train' monetary supply explosion and debt extravaganza sweeping the world but esp in US which at this point feels irreversable.. Thoughts? lol

@EricBalchunas Nah. Not too long at all. Just so many people who have severely diminished attention spans and (probably never had) critical thinking skills. Those people are not going to wisely manage money anyways.

This post was waaay too long, I get it.Didn't know how to make shorter tho. FWIW, here's link the full report: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/T…

@Noahpinion Not just online. Even if you see others in person with expensive clothing, cars, homes, gadgets, etc doesn't necessarily mean they have a lot of money. Could have very little saved as they blow it so fast, and/or in debt. Lots of people couldn't wisely manage a lot of money.

The middle class actually isn't falling behind, they're getting ahead. But everyone thinks they're falling behind because they're constantly interacting with super-rich people online, and seeing rich people's lifestyles on Instagram.

@BobEUnlimited Meh. You have some interesting insights occasionally, but HFND isn't appealing at all. Just a mishmash of various other funds. Nothing unique. Not comparable to AQR and they'll probably have the last laugh with all this "random chances" talk.

The close of the first half will inevitably bring stories of big hedge fund winners and losers. But since there is no single manager outperformance persistence beyond random chance, its all noise. Better to diversify your managers and cut the fees. x.com/UnlimitedFnds/…

@ShamsCharania Good for him, but these numbers will hamper the team. Mobley needs to take a *huge* step forward for them to increase their chances going forward.

BREAKING: Cleveland Cavaliers All-NBA star Donovan Mitchell has agreed on a four-year, $273 million maximum contract extension that includes a player option for the 2030-31 season and a full trade kicker, CAA's Co-Head of Basketball, Austin Brown, tells ESPN.

@ESPNNBA @ShamsCharania Good for him, but these numbers will hamper the team. At his age, he isn't likely to improve (could slowly drop off) further and his impact is already a bit overrated because casuals cling to basic counting stats and highlights. Mobley has to make huge steps..

SPIDA GOT PAID 💰 (via @ShamsCharania)

@choffstein This was a great listen. I really appreciate how you host, keeping spotlight entirely on the guest.

Peter Hecht – Portable Alpha: Solving the Funding Problem of Alternatives (S7E31) My guest this episode is Peter Hecht, co-head of the North America Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR. Portable alpha is drawing serious attention right now. Long the province of large institutions, it's now being wrapped into mutual funds and ETFs — which means, for the first time, advisors and the individual investors they serve get a seat at the table. So I wanted to sit down with someone who's been thinking about the idea for almost two decades. We start with the basics — what portable alpha actually is, and why Peter insists the core concept is funding, not leverage. From there we work through the real risks, the cautionary tale of 2008, and the design space: how you organize the alpha and the beta, which overlays to choose, and how to combine them without smuggling in hidden tail correlation. Then we turn to what matters most for this new audience — sizing, lifecycle, rebalancing inside a daily-liquid wrapper, and the gap between the line-item experience and the actual portfolio impact. Please enjoy my conversation with Peter Hecht.

@JamesSurowiecki Yes, there are a surprising number of people who have become so impressively weak and spoiled to the point where they consider that to be unbearable. Some even think 75 or hilariously 72 to be uncomfortable. Ridiculous. A moderately cooled 78 is far better than 85!

The response to this has been bizarre. Setting aside that politicians regularly ask residents to use less power during periods when the grid is stretched, or less water in drought, do people really think 78 degrees is intolerably hot? Who goes outside on a 78-degree day and feels like they're burning up?

@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL I checked QRPIX and yes it looks like it has done better recently this year and during 2018-2020 quant winter. But we can always nitpick any strategy as times goes on. I don't want perfect to be the enemy of good. These AQR alt strategies are somewhat correlated anyways.

@MSFusionHV @Tanner_HL Me too. These days I’d prefer a stack with QRPIX, but I’m sure Apex will have its moment again.

International (emerging and developed) stock markets picking up right where they left off to start the year. year to date we have... 🟢EEM (emerging) = 4.69% 🟡EFA (intl developed) = 2.36% 🔴Sad, terrible, no good US stocks via SPY = A paltry 1.32%