Macro Pancakes

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Macro Pancakes

Macro Pancakes

@MacroPancakes

Allocation & investment: mostly equities, FI, VC. Long of long -term cycles and underappreciated social themes. Food, Ag, geopolitics, shitposting 🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈

Katılım Mart 2021
780 Takip Edilen436 Takipçiler
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
This is breakfast, not investment advice.
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@HipHopCrave_ Agree the best feature verse of all time. Only guest on a classic album and demolished it.
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@richardslamfist @theashleyray And those two questions are a big part of why the legal market is so fucked up imk. I'm glad it's legal but the trade offs in quality & variety overall> price + TCH % were significant.
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your pal taylor🩸⚙️
your pal taylor🩸⚙️@richardslamfist·
@theashleyray Anecdotal ; i worked in (canadian) dispensaries for years. The top 2 questions i got every day were "where are the prerolls" and "whats the highest THC". Errybody smokes 98% vapes. The avg consumer here definitely wants big
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@rev_cap This is the China trade deal all over again but with much higher potential for things to go way off the rails. Rolling global energy shocks, intentional obfuscation, and lots of itchy trigger fingers in a small area is not a stable combo.
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@Bonecondor One does not ask these questions in a bull market I have also learned the hard way. It doesn't get you many lasting friends.
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@VegaVandal The backend makes sense for Prodies because the idea is you keep the gains of your labor, you're not giving it to the Church to avoid the sins of greed and pride.....but as for turning someone's emotional torment into another gold plated swimming pool for the Pope?
GIF
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@0xaporia Appropriate position sizing for the vol you can handle>almost every other tool including stop losses.
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Aporia
Aporia@0xaporia·
The problem is that a stop loss treats risk as a property of price when risk is actually a property of exposure over time. So a stop loss is answering a question the market isn’t asking. It’s a number you invented that feels like it constrains your loss, but what it mainly does is add randomness. Stop losses are conceptually wrong. Not 100% useless, but wrong. You better look at how volatile what you’re buying is and size the position so that it is acceptable.
voided@voided

That one friend who doesn't use a stop-loss

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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@StatisticUrban The geography of interior NE states further North is even more prohibitive to development than PA. NY, MA, NH, Maine: Mountains, rocky soil, shorter growing season and winters get really pretty gnarly. Pushed people towards the South in early days before they went West.
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Hunter📈🌈📊
Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban·
To this day, even having been, I still don't really understand why Pennsylvania is the 5th most populous state. I guess it's just really old, was really important for centuries, and has a lot of demographic inertia from that era. Because modern PA is not exactly a powerhouse.
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@WaterworldCapi1 Exactly. That is some proper RoC desk noise if I've ever heard it. Seems it's possible we're in early stages to see the torch get passed from legacy primes to the new breed. Ramps and drops along the way?
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@WaterworldCapi1 Some of the next Gen focused stuff ex- US primes is trading pretty well which makes sense to me. Countries need drones & lasers not fighter jets on the margin. But even those are going up on days where there's "peace deal" headline momentum which is confusing.
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@i_zzzzzz Yeah...those neighborhoods you've been spending time in aren't what I'd considrr normal anymore. Williamsburg ads are basically 1:1 what you'd see in SF.
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Brooks Otterlake
Brooks Otterlake@i_zzzzzz·
I’ve been in New York for the last two days and almost every single conversation I’ve overheard has been about startups or San Francisco
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
Seems like it's exactly what it says on the tin. VC for everyone!!
Mario S.@covered_call

Dave is right - USVC yet another grift in the world of retail-accessible VC. I went through the 56-page prospectus and its even worse than the tweet suggests: 1. Fee stack: 3.61% gross annual expense ratio, capped net at 2.50%. Underlying SPVs/VC funds charge another 1–2.5% mgmt + 20–30% carry on top. You're paying 3+ layers of fees before any return hits your account. 2. The prospectus states twice, verbatim: "The Investment Adviser has no previous experience managing a closed-end, registered investment company." The adviser was formed Dec 2023 and rebranded from "Strawberry Tree Management" to "AngelList Asset Management" last November. 3. Portfolio manager Ankur Nagpal is compensated on AUM growth, not performance. Straight from the prospectus: his Carry acquisition earnout "includes contingent payments tied to USVC's growth in assets under management." Textbook non-traded REIT incentive structure. 4. AngelList gets paid three times on the same dollar: • 1% advisory fee to AngelList Asset Management • Up to 5% of profits to Platform Advisor LLC (AngelList affiliate) • Fund admin fees to Belltower Fund Group (AngelList affiliate) 5. NAV is sponsor-marked - the adviser is its own "valuation designee." Prospectus disclaimer: "Fair value prices are necessarily subjective in nature…no assurance that such a price will be at or close to the price at which the security is next quoted or next trades." 6. "5% quarterly redemptions" is marketing. Reality: Board can cancel any offer, can offer less than 5%, can repurchase at a discount to NAV, and oversubscribed offers prorate. Straight from the doc: "Shareholders should not rely on being able to tender the full amount—or any—of their Shares." 7. Naval frames it as "VC for everyone." The prospectus describes a non-traded CEF with sponsor-marked NAV, AUM-linked manager comp, three layers of affiliate fees, and gated discretionary liquidity. Retail doesn't need access to private markets this badly.

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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@rev_cap It's more that it's become common knowledge that the social contract has broken down so really anything goes. Don't sense a lot of moralizing here just "it's all open now and nothing matters". Inflation is a big part but just a part. Inequality doing the heavy lifting imo.
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Shashank Joshi
Shashank Joshi@shashj·
Experimenting with OpenAI's new model. A hydrologically accurate cut-away of the Strait of Hormuz, drawn by Richard Scarry, drawing on current AIS data.
Shashank Joshi tweet media
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
Buying another software name I know next to nothing about $NOW
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@real_MikeBarnes Got out of this one a year or two ago. Hadn't pulled up a chart in more than a year, but you've traded this name very well over the years. Interesting timing, does look like a tempting spot to start building a new position.
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Macro Pancakes
Macro Pancakes@MacroPancakes·
@SkeleCap I literally did not know this was a public name until this week. I've dishonored my clan and missed one of the easiest Peter Lynch layups in my career.
GIF
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